Bitcoin is flashing signals that have marked major turning points in past cycles, but not yet the kind that typically accompany a durable bottom.
Several on-chain indicators tracked by CryptoQuant suggest the market remains stuck between a mid-cycle correction and a deeper reset, even as investors debate whether the worst may already be priced in.
Long-Term Holder (LTH) capitulation, Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), and the percentage of supply in profit are all currently in no man's land—positioned between a mid-cycle correction and a total market reset.
"Historically, bear market bottoms have coincided with periods when LTHs experience 30% to 40% loss margins," CryptoQuant's Thursday report noted.
Long-term holder profits have declined from 142% in October to breakeven levels, but analysts said this remains far from true capitulation.
"I broadly agree the market may not have confirmed a macro bottom yet," Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, told Decrypt. "Liquidity remains tight, and risk assets still react to macro data. A final washout is possible, especially if equities weaken."
The MVRV Z-score, meanwhile, has yet to enter an oversold range between -0.4 and -0.7, where bottoms have historically formed. NUPL currently sits at around 0.1, though price bottoms typically occur when holders are experiencing roughly 20% in unrealized losses.
Traditional finance firms such as Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered have also taken a similar bearish stance, Decrypt previously reported. They expect Bitcoin to slide between $50,000 and $ 58,000 in the coming days.
Following a hotter-than-expected jobs report, traders are now awaiting fresh January inflation data on Friday, after its release was delayed by the partial government shutdown.
A surprise rise in headline inflation could reinforce a higher-for-longer regime, putting additional pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin investors are navigating one of the most uncertain macro environments in years, with conflicting signals leaving the market searching for direction. Still, not all analysts are convinced.
"The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to a reading of 11/100 on February 11, signaling acute panic and potential seller exhaustion," Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX, told Decrypt.
Unlike the 2022 crash, the downturn has been driven by macroeconomic shifts and a liquidity crunch rather than a systemic, industry-wide failure like the FTX collapse, he said.
"The absence of a catastrophic blow-up suggests the market may be experiencing a standard, albeit painful, institutional deleveraging rather than a terminal breakdown," he added
McNulty also pointed to recent price action, where Bitcoin briefly tested psychological support at $60,000 last week, sparking a rapid 19% rebound within 24 hours as social sentiment hit peak capitulation levels, as evidence of a floor forming.
That was supported by a record single-day inflow of 66,940 BTC into accumulation addresses, suggesting institutional whales are aggressively defending the $60,000–$62,000 zone.
"With the MVRV Z-score dropping to 1.2, the data indicates that Bitcoin is already trading at deep value, leaving little room for a sustained breakdown below the $55,000 realized cost basis," McNulty added.
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