In the current environment of increased volatility in various assets, it is realistic to reassess the core allocation value of US stocks. In the global equity asset landscape, US stocks can still be viewed as one of the core allocation options by some long-term investors. This judgment is not based on a short-term bet on the macro environment in 2026 but rather stems from three more stable and sustainable structural drivers: the compounding foundation built on institutional advantages, the real demand generated by technological innovation, and the long-term shift in global capital allocation logic.

Institution and Historical Compounding: Unrepeatable "Underlying Structure"

From early 2015 to the end of 2025, the Nasdaq Composite Index has increased by approximately 2 to 3 times compared to the growth rates of the ChiNext Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index. More importantly, its maximum drawdown during the sample period was only -36.4%, far lower than the -69.7% and -74.4% drawdowns of the latter two. This means that in the US stock market, investors can more easily realize gains through "time + compounding" rather than "market timing."

This result is not coincidental but rather a quantitative reflection of institutional advantages. The US capital market has constructed a complete chain of innovative financing from venture capital and private equity to public listings and refinancing, allowing companies to obtain resources with lower friction over a longer period, creating a positive cycle of "investment—growth—reinvestment." At the same time, publicly listed companies generally follow cash flow discipline and shareholder return mechanisms, which makes the earnings base of indices demonstrate greater resilience amidst macro fluctuations. Additionally, the global pricing nature of dollar-denominated assets gives US stocks a natural capacity to absorb liquidity—when risk appetite shrinks, funds flow back for hedging, and when it expands, they absorb incremental risk exposure. This dual moat of "institution + currency" is the fundamental reason why the compounding effect can continue to be realized.

AI-Driven Industrial Cycle: From "Valuation Imagination" to "Real Investment"

Tech leaders contribute the bulk of the excess returns in this round of US stocks. However, unlike some market concerns about "bubble theory," we believe that we are currently in a critical stage of transitioning the AI industrial cycle from "infrastructure expansion" to "application penetration," characterized by the parallel verification of real demand and real investment.

Stanford's "AI Index 2025" shows that in 2024, 78% of organizations reported using AI, a significant increase from 55% in 2023, indicating that demand-side diffusion is accelerating. On the supply side, capital expenditure by US listed AI companies has increased from approximately $208.26 billion in 2019 to $384.44 billion in 2025, representing a cumulative growth of nearly 100%. This is not a case of "storytelling and withdrawal," but rather a substantial expansion of computational power and infrastructure with real capital.

We divide the AI profit realization path into three stages: the infrastructure dividend period, the platform expansion and service realization period, and the application layer penetration and business model restructuring period. The current market is still in the window of transition from the first stage to the second, where application layer penetration is far from saturated. Even if the growth margins of leading stocks slow down, the cost reduction and efficiency improvements brought by AI will continue to spread to more industries, providing broader and longer-tail growth momentum for US stocks.

Global Capital Allocation: From "Transactional Inflows" to "Structural Increase"

In the past three years, the scale of US equity holdings by overseas investors has shown a "step-up" trend—from $14.63 trillion in 2023 to $21.59 trillion in 2025, with a cumulative increase of about 47.6% over two years. This level of sustained growth resembles more of a long-term allocation adjustment by global institutional capital rather than short-term speculative inflows.

From a regional perspective, Europe contributed about 51% of the increase, further confirming that this is a strategic rebalancing primarily driven by funds from mature markets. The driving factors behind this can be summarized in three points: First, US stocks are the only ultra-large-scale market capable of absorbing trillions of dollars in incremental funds with controllable transaction impact costs; second, the continuity, comparability of information disclosure, and the predictability of the regulatory system significantly reduce the information asymmetry costs for cross-market investments; third, US stocks provide the most concentrated supply of high-quality assets in long-term tracks such as technology, software, cloud, and AI platform companies, and the ETFs and indexing tools are highly developed, making it easy to express long-term allocation views with low costs and high efficiency.

Macroeconomic Environment: Coexistence of Moderate Rate Cuts and Policy Game, but No Change in Long-Term Direction

The macro baseline scenario for 2026 is more akin to "declining interest rates + economic cooling but still resilient." The Fed's SEP predicts a median policy rate of about 3.4% by the end of 2026, a marginal reduction from the current target range, favorable for corporate financing and valuation environments. While economic growth may slow from its peak, the CBO still forecasts it to be around 1.8%, maintaining a norm of growth, making it more likely for corporate earnings to present a path of "slowed growth rather than a sharp downturn."

A variable worth noting is tax policy. Several individual and family provisions from the 2017 tax reform will expire at the end of 2025, and 2026 is likely to enter a period of intense policy games. Fiscal pressure could exacerbate fluctuations in long-term interest rates, causing more market turbulence temporarily. However, it is important to distinguish that volatility does not equal a trend reversal. As long as the three long-term driving forces of institutional advantage, industrial cycle, and financial structure remain fundamentally intact, short-term policy disturbances actually provide a window for staggered allocation and extending holding periods.

Conclusion

The long-term allocation value of US stocks is essentially a product of a positive feedback system comprising "institution—industry—capital." It does not rely on the macro good fortune of any single year, nor does it hinge on the valuation myths of any single leading stock, but is rooted in more stable and replicable structural dividends. For long-term compounding-focused allocation capital, the "core holdings" attribute of US stocks has not weakened; rather, under the backdrop of rising global uncertainty, it has become increasingly scarce.

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Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investments should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal situations and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.

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