This year's "American Spring Festival" Super Bowl, as in previous years, attracted a lot of attention. The game itself, Mr. Beast launching a $1 million mystery-solving game, the halftime show... An event that was originally only popular in America has attracted the attention of the whole world through many entertainment and cultural factors.

Before we begin, let's first experience how lively the American Spring Festival is from a first-person perspective:

(Video source: https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP89Vvjyr/)

With such a density of attention, three explosive events happen to piece together our expectations for the prediction market: an insider betting on the halftime show guest's perfect odds on the prediction market Polymarket, a "crazy fan" arrested on site, and a viral video of a major influencer apparently shot secretly, later discovered to actually be a marketing stunt.

"Perfect Odds" in the Prediction Market: A New Account with High Odds Betting on the Halftime Show Lineup

About 48 hours before the Super Bowl kickoff, nearly $80,000 was deposited into a newly registered account on the prediction market Polymarket. Subsequently, the account concentrated all funds on bets regarding the halftime show lineup and performance tracks, covering multiple detailed predictions such as Lady Gaga performing and Travis Scott not performing, totaling 19 prediction bets.

After the halftime show ended, 17 of these 19 bets hit, yielding a profit of $17,600. A new account, heavily betting on a single event, and an accuracy rate close to perfect. This has far exceeded the realm of mere luck.

Since the Super Bowl halftime show has long been planned and produced by the company Roc Nation, the community quickly began to speculate that the owner of this account likely possessed insider information and might even have ties to the producers. In an event with over ten million dollars in transaction volume, while ordinary traders were still betting blindly, this insider may have been holding the program schedule in one hand and locking in profits with the phone in the other.

However, the anonymity of blockchain also means that this assertion is just speculation. This transaction has become yet another classic case of defining prediction markets as a means for informed individuals to monetize information asymmetry.

Trader Bets on "Someone Will Rush onto the Field" and Then Rushes onto the Field

If the insider trader was profiting in the shadows using information asymmetry, then the actions of a "fan" during the game represent a public plot. He is also the protagonist in the video at the beginning of our article.

In the fourth quarter of the game, a shirtless fan climbed over the barricade and rushed onto the Super Bowl field, instantly drawing the focus of cameras and television broadcasts to this uninvited guest. His bare torso was covered in body paint, with "Trade in the blind spot" written on his chest, and on his back, his account ID "@fxalexg" along with the advertisement "Trade with Athena."

From the moment he stepped onto the field until he was tackled by security, he ran on the field for a total of 30 seconds. The official price for a 30-second advertisement slot during the Super Bowl is $7 million.

When audience members pulled out their phones to search for his account, they discovered that this "fan" was not an ordinary spectator but a trader—Alex Gonzalez. The slogans on his body were essentially a moving advertisement.

Interestingly, according to Sportscasting, Gonzalez had performed a similar stunt as early as 2024. At that time, he bet $5,000 that "someone would rush onto the field" during the Super Bowl, and he rushed in during the game, ultimately profiting about $110,000; after deducting bail and legal fees, the net earnings were still around $70,000.

This means that he not only created an event on the field but could have also bet in the prediction market on the event he would create.

When the odds are high enough, some no longer predict the future but instead create it themselves. This represents the most extreme and ironic expectation we have for prediction markets.

The "Secretly Shot" Influencer Betting One Million Dollars Video is Actually a Marketing Stunt

Another viral video from this Super Bowl came from top influencer Logan Paul—in the footage, his phone screen shows the Polymarket betting interface, where he is betting one million dollars on which team will win. The image is blurry, and the angle is slanted, resembling a casual snapshot taken by a backseat viewer.

This mere 12-second "stolen shot" video was quickly retweeted by Polymarket's official account, bringing about the expected level of heat and traffic. However, this transaction never appeared in our PolyBeats information stream focused on monitoring prediction market trades.

Upon further investigation, it was found that the so-called "million-dollar bet" never took place, and this seemingly enticing "behind-the-scenes" footage designed to satisfy the public's curiosity was merely a carefully packaged marketing performance: As early as December 2025, Logan Paul became a partner at the venture capital firm Anti Fund, which was one of the investors in Polymarket's B round of funding in 2025.

When a globally watched sports event is simultaneously layered with probability markets, advertising markets, and traffic markets, the boundaries of the game are no longer confined to the two teams. Beyond the odds, there is exposure pricing; beyond the betting lines, there is narrative design.

Driven by money and attention, the "explosive moments" we see scrolling through social media may not be spontaneous but the result of months of planning.

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