Written by: Tanay Ved, Senior Research Vice President

Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Key Points:

• We forecast total revenue for Q4 2025 to be $1.77 billion, a decrease of 5% from $1.87 billion in Q3, as declines in trading volume and asset prices offset growth in derivatives trading and USDC.
• Trading revenue is expected to be $978 million (a sequential decline of 6%), driven by Deribit’s contribution for the entire quarter, which boosted institutional business growth.
• Subscription and service revenue remains resilient at $723 million, as the growth in USDC supply offset the impacts of Federal Reserve rate cuts and reduced staking rewards.
• For FY 2025, we estimate total revenue to be around $7.2 billion, reflecting Coinbase's ongoing revenue diversification and strategic expansion into the derivatives sector.

Introduction

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) plans to announce its Q4 2025 financial report after market close on February 12 (Wednesday). The year 2025 is transformational for Coinbase, facing challenges from market volatility while achieving significant strategic advancements. The passage of the "GENIUS Act" brings much-anticipated regulatory clarity for stablecoins, while Coinbase advances its "all-in-one exchange" vision, enhancing the flywheel effects between its trading and subscription businesses through revenue diversification and strategic expansion.

This financial report is based on strong Q3 performance, with Coinbase achieving total revenue of $1.87 billion in Q3, up 25% quarter-over-quarter and 55% year-over-year. Prior to the report release, COIN's current trading price is approximately $164 per share, down about 61% from the peak in July 2025, reflecting the recent downturn in the broader cryptocurrency market.

In this article, we combine exchange data, on-chain metrics, and public information to project Coinbase's Q4 2025 earnings.

Trading Revenue

Coinbase's trading revenue remains its largest but most cyclical business segment, accounting for 50-70% of total revenue in recent quarters. It includes trading activity in the spot and derivatives markets aimed at both consumers and institutions, as well as "other trading revenue" from Base L2 fees and payment services. This makes the revenue highly correlated with trading volume and on-chain activity, which are driven by cryptocurrency prices and market volatility.

Spot Trading Activity Declines After October Volatility

Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Pro

According to exchange activity data, Coinbase's spot trading volume for Q4 2025 is approximately $256 billion, down 12% from the previous quarter. Record liquidations and volatility in October drove a surge in trading volumes, but as Bitcoin pulled back from its historical high of nearly $126,000, trading activity shrank in November and December. As shown in the asset composition below, trading activity shifted towards BTC (increasing from 24% to 33%), while the decrease in the share of ETH and other crypto assets indicates a reduction in retail (consumer) participation.

Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Pro

Derivatives and Deribit

In Q3, Coinbase's institutional trading revenue saw exceptional growth due to derivatives. Its acquisition of Deribit in mid-August contributed $52 million in revenue during just six weeks of ownership. Q4 marks the first full quarter for Deribit under Coinbase, with the total trading volume of futures and options derivatives for Deribit and Coinbase reaching approximately $1.25 trillion, making derivatives an increasingly important revenue driver.

Source: Coin Metrics Market Data Pro

Positioning for Base

Coinbase generates revenue by charging trading fees for ordering and processing transactions on the Base blockchain while incurring costs in the form of Blob fees paid to Layer 1 Ethereum. As illustrated in the chart, Q4 2025 generated approximately $19 million in total sorting revenue, with $10 million in October driven by increased on-chain activity during market volatility. After deducting L1 data costs and OP Collective revenue sharing, the estimated net revenue for Base in the quarter is about $15 million.

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro

Trading Revenue Outlook

Based on the Q4 spot trading volume of $256 billion and derivatives trading volume of $1.26 trillion, we estimate trading revenue at $978 million, a 12% decrease from $1.046 billion in Q3. We anticipate:

Consumer revenue will decline approximately 16% to $708 million, reflecting decreased spot trading volume and reduced retail participation due to a shift towards Bitcoin trading.

Institutional revenue will grow about 52% to $205 million, driven by Deribit's contributions in its first full quarter.

Other trading revenue (Base sorting fees + payments) will remain steady at about $65 million.

Subscription and Service Revenue

Subscription and service revenues have been a key source of Coinbase's revenue diversification, bringing it closer to a financial "super app." Non-trading revenue has now reached $746 million, continuing to grow quarter-over-quarter, providing a more stable revenue base compared to the cyclicality of trading revenue.

Source: Coinbase Q3 Shareholder Letter

Stablecoin Interest Revenue

USDC continues to play a critical role for Coinbase. Stablecoin revenue (from USDC reserve interest income in partnership with Circle) is the largest contributor to subscription and service revenue, bringing in $355 million in Q3 2025.

Source: Coin Metrics Network Data Pro

In Q4, the average market cap of USDC grew by 9% to $74.1 billion, thanks to the ongoing adoption of stablecoins. Coinbase earned 100% interest income on USDC held on the platform (approximately 22% of the supply) and 50% interest income on USDC circulating off the platform (about 78%). After the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cuts in October and December, applying an implied yield of 3.25%, we estimate the stablecoin interest revenue for Q4 to be $367 million, up 3% quarter-over-quarter, with the increase in supply partially offsetting the compression in yields.

Blockchain rewards and other subscription and service segment revenue

Blockchain rewards are the second-largest source of revenue for Coinbase's subscription and service segment, generating $186 million in revenue in Q3 2025. In Q4, staking balances remain relatively stable, with ETH staking at 35.7 million and SOL staking slightly increasing to 415 million (+2.7%). However, average asset prices have significantly declined (ETH down 12.5%, SOL down 16.7%), and SOL staking yields have compressed by about 7.5%. The combined impact of the price and yield declines outweighed the minor increase in balances. Therefore, we estimate blockchain rewards for Q4 to be about $158 million, down 15% quarter-over-quarter.

Interest and financing fee income is expected to remain steady at around $65 million, as continued growth in institutional loan balances (which hit a record $1.2 billion in Q3) offsets the effects of declining interest rates. Other subscription and service revenue (including custody fees and ecosystem partner shares) is estimated to be about $136 million, slightly below $143 million in Q3, as falling asset prices impacted fees associated with Assets Under Custody (AUC).

Toward a Panoramic Exchange

In addition to its core trading and subscription business, Coinbase continues to build its vision of a "panoramic exchange," creating a flywheel for symbiotic growth of its product stack. Several initiatives in development may bring incremental revenue in the coming quarters.

By integrating on-chain lending protocols such as Morpho, supporting USDC-denominated loans, both driving demand for stablecoins and generating interest income. Tokenized stocks and physical assets settled in USDC will bring a variety of asset classes and financial functions onto the crypto track. Prediction markets expand use cases and platform engagement while driving demand for USDC in trading settlements. Meanwhile, the acquisition of token issuance platform Echo and integration with decentralized exchanges (DEXs) generate incremental listing and trading revenues.

While these initiatives have yet to substantially impact revenue, they reflect Coinbase's strategy to capture value throughout the crypto ecosystem and become a financial super app.

Conclusion

We forecast that Coinbase will report total revenue of about $1.777 billion for Q4 2025, down 5% from $1.869 billion in Q3. Total revenue for the year 2025 will reach approximately $7.2 billion.

• Trading revenue: $978 million (compared to Q3: $1.046 billion)
• Subscription and service revenue: $726 million (compared to Q3: $747 million)
• Company interest and other income: $73 million (compared to Q3: $76 million)
• Total revenue: $1.777 billion (compared to Q3: $1.869 billion)

The decline in trading volume and asset prices has pressured trading and staking revenues, but Deribit’s first full quarter and record USDC supply provided significant growth. Despite ongoing regulatory changes, market competition, and interest rate risks, subscription and service revenue now accounts for 41% of net revenue, highlighting Coinbase's progress in building a more durable revenue base. As Coinbase expands its product suite into a broader range of financial services, from derivatives to tokenized stocks and prediction markets, it is gradually approaching its vision of a panoramic exchange.

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