Original Title: "After a $23.3 Million Bet on His Stay or Go, Why Did NBA Star Giannis Antetokounmpo's Stake in Kalshi Spark Outrage?"
Original Author: Zen, PANews
At 4 AM Beijing time on February 6, the most tumultuous trade deadline in NBA history finally came to a close. Among the dazzling array of trade news, the biggest fish in the free market—Milwaukee Bucks star "Giannis Antetokounmpo"—ultimately chose to stay with his team after two months of trade rumors and back-and-forth negotiations.
At the same time, the event contract regarding "Giannis's stay or go" on the prediction market platform Kalshi began to enter the settlement phase. The contract's total trading volume exceeded $23.3 million, making it the highest-grossing single event contract in the NBA, second only to "NBA Championship Winner."
Just when people thought the trade deadline had passed and Giannis's series of antics could finally come to a complete end, he unexpectedly "brought his talent to Kalshi," transforming into a shareholder of the platform. Long benefiting from high exposure due to trade rumors, he ultimately signed a commercial partnership under the spotlight. This behavior sparked dissatisfaction among many fans.
In a way, this is reminiscent of another top NBA star, LeBron James, who seriously announced before last season that he would reveal "Decision 2.0," giving the impression that he was about to retire, only to ultimately announce, "I’m bringing my talent to Hennessy," which felt like a tease to fans.
However, compared to LeBron promoting Hennessy, what’s worse for Giannis is that his collaboration with Kalshi, which is viewed by most fans as an "alternative gambling platform," is not just about advertising exposure and brand PR, but also concerns sports ethics, competitive fairness, and conflicts of interest.
Giannis and Kalshi's Resonant Experiences: From "Undocumented" to Top Star
"Giannis Antetokounmpo" is the real name of "Giannis," a nickname derived from his long name and numerous letters, which sports community fans have affectionately dubbed him as "Letter Brother" or "Letter."
On the NBA court, there is no shortage of inspiring stories, and Giannis's rise is a dramatic and legendary example. Born in Greece to Nigerian immigrant parents, Giannis could not obtain Greek citizenship due to the country's bloodline principles, as he was born into a family without legal documents or work permits. His parents struggled daily to make ends meet while raising their five sons.
At the age of 13, the tall and athletic young Giannis began learning to play basketball. Through hard work and extraordinary talent, he became one of Europe’s brightest basketball stars by the age of 18. He caught the attention of several top European clubs and subsequently attracted a large number of NBA scouts.
When Giannis was preparing to enter the 2013 NBA Draft, he was still in an "undocumented" status. After a series of meetings with agents and the Greek government, along with strong support from then-Sports Minister Yiannis Ioannidis, Giannis finally obtained Greek citizenship on May 9, 2013. On June 27, he was selected by the Milwaukee Bucks as the 15th pick in the first round, successfully entering the NBA.
Giannis's life philosophy, in his own words, is that "the spirit of perseverance is the most important." After entering the NBA, through relentless effort and a constant pursuit of improvement, he gradually transformed into an All-Star and superstar. Since 2019, he has been a strong contender for the league's best player. Now, he holds two MVP trophies, led the Bucks to their first NBA championship since 1971, and was named Finals MVP, along with numerous selections to All-NBA teams and All-Star honors.
From an unremarkable background to becoming a top star, Kalshi also has a similar journey. Founded in 2018, Kalshi underwent six years of dormancy, exploration, and struggle before finally shedding its non-compliant "undocumented" status and gaining recognition from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a regulated trading platform.
The "struggle experience" of the Kalshi platform resonates with Giannis's personal journey, which may be one reason for their collaboration.
The NBA's Embrace of Gambling: Opening Pandora's Box
Giannis is the first NBA player with a public interest connection to Kalshi, but he is not the first public figure in the league to venture into the prediction market.
In November 2025, the NBA reviewed a startup called Mojo Interactive Inc. for entering the prediction market, as its founders are minority shareholders of the Minnesota Timberwolves, Mark Lore and Alex Rodriguez. According to Mojo's CEO Vinit Bharara, the company began trading contracts related to sports events during the NFL season last fall, but has not yet engaged in NBA-related trades.
Regarding this matter, an NBA spokesperson stated that the league is aware that the two Timberwolves shareholders hold minority stakes in Mojo but do not participate in the company's daily operations. "We are reviewing this arrangement to verify its compliance with league regulations." He also emphasized that NBA teams and league personnel are prohibited from trading NBA or WNBA contracts on any prediction market platform.
The NBA's management of whether team owners can hold shares in gambling companies is relatively lenient, as long as they do not personally oversee operations related to NBA betting. For example, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban is the president and COO of the globally renowned casino and hotel operating group, Las Vegas Sands. The two Timberwolves owners have also assured the NBA that they fully comply with the league's established policies. While they demonstrate the legitimacy of their business, it also shows that Pandora's box has already been opened.
"The internet is full of comments, and I decided to make my voice heard… Today, I join Kalshi as a shareholder." Now, Giannis's joining declaration has made the relationship between the NBA and the prediction market even more ambiguous. Among global sports leagues, the NBA is the most proactive in commercializing gambling partnerships, willing to embrace incremental revenue and more willing to manage risks with compliance terms.
From a regulatory standpoint, since the NBA signed a new collective bargaining agreement with the players' union in 2023, NBA players' commercial reach has become broader and more flexible. The league even allows NBA players to participate in sports betting and recreational cannabis businesses, with the only restrictions being that "investments must be passive" and "the player's ownership stake cannot exceed 1% of the gambling company" (50% for cannabis brands).
Therefore, regardless of whether the prediction platform is considered a gambling dispute, Giannis's collaboration with Kalshi does not violate league rules. This is why a Kalshi spokesperson only revealed that "Giannis's" ownership stake does not exceed the 1% threshold, without disclosing specific ownership data. Before Giannis, LeBron had reached a partnership with the gambling company DraftKings in 2024, serving as an ambassador for NFL and some non-NBA events. However, LeBron's involvement was limited to the role of brand ambassador, lacking the depth of Giannis's collaboration.
In contrast, the NFL, another top commercial sports league, has taken a stricter stance on similar collaborations. Giannis's signing has raised suspicions about whether NFL athletes will follow suit. An NFL spokesperson responded that players in the league are not allowed to own shares in prediction market companies.
In the Era of Prediction and Gambling, How Do Fairness, Ethics, and Trust Return?
As soon as the news of Giannis becoming a shareholder of Kalshi broke, it immediately exploded on social media. However, the fanbase that truly cares about Giannis found themselves largely opposed to him. People began to question how much money it would take for a billionaire to feel that this was worth it.
"A player involved in large-scale trade rumors actually owns a part of a prediction market where people can bet on whether he will be traded; this is a huge conflict of interest," independent sports journalist Joon Lee stated, believing that this collaboration goes far beyond a player advertising for a sports betting company. He also unexpectedly discovered in a Barron's report that Kevin Durant also seems to be an investor in Kalshi.
Previously, fans had mostly seen endorsement-type collaborations, which are essentially more like advertising businesses and do not involve equity binding. However, Giannis's "shareholder status" has pushed the event into a higher sensitivity zone of conflict. Even a passive, minimal stake still qualifies him as a "stakeholder," especially considering this is a newly emerging company valued at over $10 billion.
In the collaboration statement, Kalshi emphasized that Giannis would be prohibited from participating in any NBA-related trades. However, the real risk still exists regarding Giannis's willingness, ability, intensity, and transparency in self-regulation, which fans are skeptical about. Many fans have even begun to speculate whether Giannis himself participated in trades regarding his stay or go. Coupled with the contradictory statements he made before the NBA trade deadline, some speculate he was manipulating insider trading while toying with fans.
Now, with the NBA deeply intertwined with the gambling industry, fans have long been living amidst various odds and data. This has also intensified the motivation for insider manipulation, quietly eroding fans' confidence in sports ethics and trust in the motivations behind the games.
Earlier in the NBA season, Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups was arrested for illegal gambling; Miami Heat player Terry Rozier was arrested for allegedly using insider information from NBA players to manipulate betting. The potential for new scandals to erupt at any moment in the NBA severely undermines fans' confidence in sports ethics and trust in the motivations behind the games.
Another consequence of fully financializing sports is that in an environment where gambling is ubiquitous, fans will project more variables—such as game pauses, rotations, injury recovery times, and even a single post-game interview—as "potentially market-influencing" factors.
This is precisely the most challenging aspect of the prediction market era; its financial logic rewrites the way sports narratives are appreciated. The exciting game process can no longer be fully appreciated by fans, and inspiring stories like Giannis's are no longer of interest; people begin to care only about where the "Greek Freak" will go next, when he will retire, and how much money can be made from him.
In the era of gambling and prediction markets, doubts and controversies cannot be quelled by mere self-assertion. Restoring fairness, ethics, and trust is a more difficult proposition we need to address.
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