This article is only a personal market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Any actions taken based on this are at your own risk.

In the article on the 30th, I timely reminded everyone of the risks of a downturn. Within three days after the post, ETH has already dropped by over 20%. Since mid-January, it has accumulated a decline of over 35%. If you have been following my suggestion of shorting on rebounds over the past few months, your returns in the past half month should be quite good.

This correction is a market-wide correction, not just in the crypto space. U.S. stocks, precious metals, commodities, and today's A-shares have all been severely impacted. It indicates some liquidity issues.

I personally believe that this situation presents a good opportunity to increase positions in gold and A-shares. In a long-term upward market, a quick short-term correction is always a very good buying opportunity. The fundamental logic for A-shares and gold has not changed; the short-term is just clearing out overheated emotions, which is not a big issue.

Returning to the crypto space, the long-term bearish view will not change. However, with the recent rapid correction, the short-term drop has become a straight line. The daily low for BTC has coincidentally reached the low point from the trade war in April 2025, where there was a lot of bottom-fishing, thus providing some support. Additionally, looking at the rectangular oscillation area from November to January, it has already reached the target position.

I personally believe that it will pause here in the short term, likely resulting in oscillation and a slight rebound. However, I do not think going long here is a good choice, as the weekly head and shoulders top has not yet reached its target. Therefore, if there is a rebound, it will still be a short on the rebound. The bearish outlook is certain, while the rebound (in terms of time and magnitude) is uncertain, so we should focus on certain actions.

ETH is similar, having dropped to the low point from last June's spike, temporarily gaining support. At the same time, the downward target corresponding to the rectangular oscillation area has also been achieved. A significant short-term drop has occurred, and a small period of oscillation and consolidation is normal.

If a good position for shorting on a rebound appears later, I will share my views in another post. Please stay tuned.

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