Tokenized gold becomes a new favorite, but institutions predict that Bitcoin still has a chance to catch up with gold's price increase.

CN
4 hours ago

Author: Blockchain Knight

Bitcoin's price has stagnated, and crypto whales are turning to tokenized gold, a move that is not a denial of cryptocurrency but rather a hedge against a specific macroeconomic window.

Data from yesterday shows that three major whale addresses withdrew approximately $14.33 million worth of tokenized gold (XAUT, PAXG) from several centralized exchanges.

Although these assets represent tokenized rights to gold prices rather than physical delivery, liquidity signals indicate that risk-averse allocations are being realized through crypto settlement channels, coinciding perfectly with the divergence of hard assets. Spot gold remains stable above $5,000 per ounce, while Bitcoin has been fluctuating narrowly, rising only about 0.28% since the beginning of the year.

The core appeal of tokenized gold for native crypto investors lies in the ability to trade and settle conveniently around the clock without exiting the crypto ecosystem, and the withdrawal behavior from exchanges typically indicates an intention to hold long-term.

The current rise in gold further reinforces this trend, with spot gold increasing by approximately 64% in 2025 and rising 18% from the beginning of 2026 to now; even stablecoin issuer Tether purchased 27 tons of gold as reserves in the fourth quarter of 2025, using it as an internal hedge and settlement asset during market volatility.

The stagnation of Bitcoin is fundamentally a liquidity issue. Data shows that global crypto ETPs experienced a net outflow of $1.811 billion in a single week, with the U.S. Bitcoin ETF seeing a net outflow of $1.324 billion, directly impacting new demand.

The derivatives market also shows defensive characteristics, with a three-month annualized yield of nearly 4.8%, and option prices leaning towards downside protection.

At the same time, the crypto fear and greed index has returned to the fear zone, with Bitcoin facing a "maximum pain" pressure channel between $75,000 and $81,000, as macro hedgers assess downside risks.

Whales purchasing tokenized gold are likely engaging in hedging behavior while waiting for catalysts, rather than abandoning Bitcoin, especially in the context of ETF fund outflows limiting upward potential.

The rise in gold is supported by multiple factors, including geopolitical and policy uncertainties, central banks' continued gold purchases, and a trend towards diversification of reserves. Precious metals have now surpassed the dollar to become the world's largest reserve asset.

This shift aligns with the structural demand for storing value outside of fiat currencies. While both gold and Bitcoin belong to this category of assets, their allocation shows phase differences.

During panic phases, there is a preference for low-volatility gold, while in phases of currency devaluation or inflation, Bitcoin, which tends to rise faster after liquidity recovery, is favored.

In the long run, the disconnection between Bitcoin and gold may be more of a lag than a break. Bitwise data shows that the Bitcoin/gold ratio relative to global money supply is nearing extreme values, and it is currently at the end of a 14-month historical average bear market cycle.

If ETF fund outflows turn into inflows, or if the ratio rebounds from extreme levels, funds may rotate back into Bitcoin.

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