In a recent discussion published on Youtube, Xueqin Jiang, host of the Predictive History channel, outlined a series of scenarios he believes could unfold if the United States launches military action against Iran, emphasizing energy markets, trade routes, and geopolitical alliances.

Jiang spoke with David Lin, an independent financial journalist known for interviews on macroeconomics and geopolitics. The conversation centered on recent military movements, diplomatic signaling, and the possible consequences of escalation in the Middle East.

During The David Lin Report (TDLR) interview, Jiang pointed to reported naval deployments and flight cancellations by international airlines as indicators he believes suggest heightened risk of imminent military action. He argued that these developments, combined with internal unrest in Iran, could increase the likelihood of U.S. airstrikes, though no official confirmation of such plans has been announced.

As of this weekend, Polymarket bettors currently price a 66% probability that the U.S. strikes Iran by June 30. A separate market suggests there will be no strike by Jan. 31, indicating 76% of participants do not anticipate military action this month, though a narrow 5% probability remains that it occurs on the 31st. Beyond airstrikes, traders also assign a 17% likelihood that U.S. troops will enter Iran by March 31. All of this speculation has heightened after the U.S. military activity in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

In the TDLR interview, Jiang contended that a conflict with Iran would likely differ from past U.S. military operations, asserting that Iran could respond asymmetrically by targeting regional infrastructure and trade routes. He cited the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil shipments passes, as a key vulnerability that could affect energy prices and supply chains if disrupted.

According to Jiang, Iran’s strategic position and regional ties could draw other nations into the conflict, either militarily or through emergency diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing broader economic fallout. He suggested that major Asian economies dependent on Middle Eastern energy supplies would face heightened pressure to respond.

Also read: Bitchat Sees Rapid Uptake in Iran During Nationwide Internet Blackout

The discussion also explored long-term geopolitical implications. Jiang argued that sustained conflict could weaken existing international institutions and accelerate shifts in global alliances, particularly involving the United States, China, and Russia. These views were presented as analytical interpretations rather than confirmed policy outcomes.

Lin asked whether such a conflict could remain localized. Jiang responded that, in his assessment, the interconnected nature of global trade and energy markets would make containment difficult, increasing the likelihood of wider economic effects extending beyond the Middle East.

The interview further addressed recent remarks by political leaders in Davos and other forums, which Jiang interpreted as evidence of growing skepticism toward existing global economic arrangements. He framed these developments as part of a broader transition in international relations, though such interpretations remain debated among analysts.

Jiang also discussed precious metals like gold and investor behavior, arguing that recent price movements reflect rising concern over geopolitical instability. These claims were presented as his personal analysis and not as established market consensus.

Predictive History, Jiang’s Youtube channel, focuses on long-term historical patterns and strategic modeling. Jiang, a Chinese-Canadian educator and historian, applies structural history and game theory to contemporary events, an approach that has drawn both interest and criticism.

FAQ 🇮🇷

• Who is Xueqin Jiang?
  He is a Chinese-Canadian educator and geopolitical commentator who hosts the Predictive History YouTube channel.
• What did Jiang claim about Iran?
  He argued that a U.S. strike on Iran could lead to prolonged conflict and global economic disruption.
• Is a U.S. strike on Iran confirmed?
  No, the discussion reflects analysis and speculation, not confirmed military plans.
• Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter?
  It is a critical route for global oil shipments, making it economically significant in any regional conflict.

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