The cryptocurrency market continues to show weakness, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both exhibiting a pattern of "morning rebound and afternoon pullback." Currently, the battle between bulls and bears is focused on key levels, and tonight's speech by Trump and the movements of funds in the U.S. market will be core variables that could break the current trend.
Bitcoin rebounded from a low near 87900 in the morning, reaching a high of 90100 in the afternoon, just a step away from the 90000 psychological level. However, due to insufficient bullish momentum, it failed to hold that level and subsequently fell back, currently weakly consolidating around 89200. The 90000 level is an important watershed for the short-term market; if it can be effectively reclaimed, the price is expected to further test the resistance area of 91000-92000. Conversely, if the market comes under pressure again, it may test the support level at 88000. If this support is lost, a deeper correction is likely to continue, testing the range of 87000-85000.
Ethereum's movement is highly correlated with Bitcoin, rebounding from a low of 2920 in the morning and reaching a high of 3003 in the afternoon before encountering resistance and falling back, currently oscillating around 2960. It is worth noting that Ethereum has lost the 3000 level in this round of decline, while the 2900-3000 range has been a central point of oscillation for nearly half a month, making the strength of support in this area crucial. If it can hold, the market is likely to rebound, with the 3000 level becoming the main battleground for bulls and bears; if support is lost, the price will deeply test the range of 2800-2650.
From a technical perspective, both Bitcoin and Ethereum's daily prices have touched the lower Bollinger Band, indicating technical support. After several days of decline, the KDJ and RSI indicators on the daily and four-hour charts have shown signs of turning in the oversold zone, indicating a demand for a short-term rebound. However, on the macro level, there is a lack of supportive factors such as interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, combined with escalating U.S. tariff trade disputes and rising geopolitical risks, which have severely suppressed the momentum for a rebound. Even if a recovery occurs, its strength is likely to be limited.
Tonight, key price levels to watch are: for Bitcoin, resistance at the 90000 level and 91000, with support focused on 88000; for Ethereum, resistance at 3000 and 3050, with support to watch in the 2900 area.
The core focus tonight is on two aspects: first, the content of Trump's speech, as his statements on tariff policies and geopolitical situations will directly affect market risk aversion. If he sends a strong signal, it may trigger a new wave of selling pressure; second, the movements of funds in the U.S. market, whether ETF funds stop falling and return, and the adjustment of institutional positions will determine the breakout direction at key levels.
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