Ray Dalio Warns of a Cracking Fiat Order as Global Markets Feel the Strain

CN
4 hours ago

It hasn’t been a friendly start to the week for U.S. equities, bonds, or the greenback, to put it mildly, as the so-called “Sell America” trade barrels ahead. The Nasdaq Composite is lower, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is taking a beating, the S&P 500 is sliding, and the NYSE Composite has also given up a noticeable chunk during Tuesday’s morning session.

U.S. Treasury yields jumped as global bond markets churned. The pullback followed President Trump ramping up rhetoric over Greenland, floating new tariffs on eight European NATO allies that oppose his push for U.S. control of the Danish territory. Trump’s weekend posts on Truth Social pointed to tariffs beginning Feb. 1 and stepping higher later in the year if talks stall, stoking worries of another trade clash with key U.S. partners.

Bitcoin, often treated as a global liquidity barometer, is off 3% and fighting to stay above the $90,000 zone. The broader crypto economy is down 2.94% against the greenback and appears uncomfortably close to slipping below the $3 trillion threshold. According to experts, bitcoin is hovering near its highs as steady spot demand continues to absorb supply despite fading momentum, and Bitfinex analysts contend that escalating trade tensions could eventually favor bitcoin over the medium term if they translate into slower growth, greater uncertainty, and looser monetary policy.

“ Bitcoin continues to trade as a macro sensitive asset, responding primarily to liquidity expectations and real yields, not to isolated trade headlines unless they materially alter those variables,” Bitfinex researchers wrote in a note sent to Bitcoin.com News. “The fact that bitcoin is consolidating near highs despite softer short term momentum suggests supply is being methodically absorbed. In previous cycles, similar divergences between price consolidation and persistent spot demand have often preceded expansionary moves once marginal sellers are exhausted or a broader macro catalyst emerges.”

The Bitfinex analysts added:

“The more relevant signal lies in second order effects. Expanding tariff rhetoric increases the probability of slower global trade, higher policy uncertainty, and eventual pressure on central banks to offset growth risks. Historically, that environment has been supportive for bitcoin over medium term horizons.”

Precious metals, however, continue to push higher, with an ounce of .999 fine gold at $4,740 after a 1.4% rise over the past day. Silver has joined the move, inching up 0.19% over the past 24 hours to about $94.49 per ounce. According to State Street Investment Management’s head of gold strategy, Aakash Dosh, the odds of gold reaching $5,000 keep improving, per a Kitco report by Neils Christensen. Additionally, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio is raising the alarm over the breakdown of the world’s fiat regime.

Dalio describes this current market action as part of a broader breakdown in the existing fiat monetary system, domestic political orders, and international geopolitics, driven by cycles of debt, inequality, and power shifts. The Bridgewater Associates founder has been beating this drum for some time and now insists his long-held theory is starting to play out in real time.

On Monday, Dalio wrote:

“It’s now happening. The existing fiat monetary order, the domestic political order, and the international geopolitical order are all breaking down, so we are at the brink of wars. It all is happening because of the Big Cycle that is driven by the five big forces I’ve described repeatedly and laid out in detail in my book titled Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order.”

Dalio isn’t alone in this camp, as voices like economist Dean Baker and Wall Street veteran Marc Chaikin have also been penciling in downturns for 2026, while gold advocate and economist Peter Schiff has long argued that the greenback’s dominance is nearing its end and that precious metals like gold will move higher as fiat weakens, a view echoed by market analyst Mark Moss, who says ballooning debt has hobbled economies and set the stage for a shift toward new monetary systems.

Also read: Report: RBI Proposes Linking BRICS Central Bank Digital Currencies for Payments

This week, as markets digest trade threats, political strain, and mounting debt, investors are being forced to rethink old assumptions. Stocks and bonds are wobbling, crypto is searching for footing, and hard assets are drawing fresh attention. Whether Dalio’s warnings fully materialize or not, the message is clear: policy risk, monetary pressure, and macro uncertainty are no longer distant concepts — they are active forces shaping capital flows today.

  • Why are U.S. markets falling today? U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar are under pressure as trade tensions, tariff threats, and policy uncertainty fuel the “Sell America” trade.
  • Why is gold rising while crypto is down? Investors are rotating into gold and silver as defensive assets while crypto reacts to tighter liquidity and softer short-term momentum.
  • What is Ray Dalio warning about? Dalio says the global fiat monetary system is breaking down, driven by debt cycles, political strain, and shifting geopolitical power.
  • How could trade tensions affect bitcoin long term? Analysts say prolonged trade friction could ultimately support bitcoin if it leads to slower growth, higher uncertainty, and easier monetary policy.

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