The Qinglan Crypto Class is starting! With a dual perspective of BTC's four cycles and news, let's help you catch the rhythm of the crypto world. First, let's talk about the technical aspect.
We'll look from short to long:
15-minute chart (ultra-short term - weak oscillation):
Oh dear, this trend is like walking in a narrow alley, recently bouncing back and forth between 91000 and 92200. The latest price is around 91170, pressed by the short-term MA5 and MA10 moving averages, showing weak upward momentum. The MACD is sticky below the zero line, with the fast and slow lines almost fused, and the bars are very short, indicating that both bulls and bears are unable to exert strength at this small level, resulting in weak oscillation. The RSI is around 44, neither up nor down, lacking direction.
1-hour chart (short term - oscillation and pullback):
Looking at a slightly larger pattern, after the surge to around 92300 early yesterday morning, it began to oscillate and pull back. The current price is hovering in the 91000-91500 range. The fast line (DIF) of the MACD is above the zero line but shows signs of turning down, with the red bars slightly emerging, indicating that the short-term upward momentum is weakening and there is pullback pressure. However, the price is still struggling near the MA20 moving average (around 91300), which serves as a short-term support.
4-hour chart (medium term - critical decision period):
This cycle is quite critical! We can see that after the price surged above 94000 in early January, it formed a downward trend of high points. It is currently testing a key support area, roughly around 90500-91000. The MACD is above the zero line, but the fast and slow lines have crossed, and the red bars are getting longer, signaling a weakening of medium-term upward momentum and a potential adjustment. If the 90500-91000 area cannot hold, the next important support will be around 89000.
Daily chart (long term - adjustment within an upward trend):
In the big trend, since the low point at the end of December last year, the overall upward channel has not been broken. However! In the past week or so, the price has clearly stagnated above 90,000, forming a high-level consolidation platform. Although the daily MACD is still above the zero line, red bars have appeared consecutively, and the fast and slow lines show signs of convergence, which is a typical signal of slowing upward momentum and the need for a break. The key long-term support is at the MA30 moving average (around 89500) and the lower edge of the previous platform near 88000.
Now, let's combine the news aspect:
The news is mixed, but there is a slightly cautious sentiment.
On one hand, large players like MicroStrategy are still making significant purchases (news 38), providing a bottom for long-term confidence; on-chain data also indicates that this may just be a mid-cycle adjustment rather than the beginning of a bear market (news 39).
On the other hand, there are also many negative factors: the market is still in a "panic" range (news 1); institutional funds continue to flow out of Bitcoin ETFs (news 18); the review of key crypto legislation in the U.S. has been postponed (news 15), and regulatory uncertainty remains; moreover, the movements of the Federal Reserve (news 44) and the global macro economy (news 9, 14) also make large funds hesitant to act.
These news explain why the price is "struggling" at the 90,000 mark (news 3), unable to go up or down—lacking fresh blood (funds) to break the balance.
Comprehensive prediction and trading ideas:
Combining the technical and news aspects, Sister Qinglan's judgment is: Bitcoin is currently undergoing a phase adjustment within a medium to long-term upward trend, with a short-term direction leaning towards oscillation and downward movement, needing to test and confirm the effectiveness of the key support below.
Key support levels:
The primary focus is on the 90500-91000 area (4-hour platform support). If it breaks down, the key defense will be at 89000-89500 (daily MA30 and previous structural support).
Key resistance levels:
First, look at 91800-92200 above (recent oscillation range upper edge and 1-hour moving average pressure), with strong resistance at 92800-93300 (near previous highs).
Possible patterns: Be cautious of forming a "double top" or "head and shoulders" right shoulder on the 4-hour or daily level, provided that the price cannot effectively break through the previous high and falls below the neckline (currently seen around 90500-91000).
Here are our operational suggestions:
Short-term players (day trading): In the current environment, a high sell-low buy range mindset is safer. You can lightly test long positions near the 90500-91000 support area, with a stop loss below 90500. Consider reducing positions or trying short near the resistance area of 91800-92200 during a rebound. Quick in and out, don’t be greedy.
Medium to long-term players (trend trading): It is recommended to watch more and act less, or use pullbacks to gradually build positions. The ideal accumulation area is near 89000-89500 or even around 88000. Do not blindly chase highs until the price clearly breaks through 93000 and stabilizes. Position management is key; leave enough bullets.
Risk warning: Pay close attention to the gains and losses in the 90500-91000 area. If it breaks down with volume, the depth and duration of the short-term adjustment may extend, and further observation of the support at 89000 will be needed. All trades must have stop losses!
For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, it has been updated in my Qinglan Crypto Class, qinglan.org. Finally, I’ll leave you with a saying that Sister Qinglan has learned in the market: "The market is always born in despair, rises in hesitation, and ends in celebration. The current oscillation and confusion are precisely the market's way of filtering out the truly patient ones." Let’s stay calm and keep the rhythm steady. Alright, that’s it for today’s morning analysis, and I wish everyone successful trading!
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