Just now, Trump published his latest article on Truth Social, discussing the possibility that if the Supreme Court rules that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are illegal, the U.S. may have to refund the tariffs collected previously. Trump mentioned that this amount could be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. I checked, and the total tariffs for the year 2025 are approximately $250 billion, which is similar to what Trump mentioned.
If we also consider the compensation for companies that were forced to open factories in the U.S. due to tariffs, this could amount to several trillion dollars, and most of this money has already been spent, primarily on budget deficits, government spending, and subsidies. Therefore, if the Supreme Court rules that the Trump administration's tariffs are illegal and demands a refund, the U.S. would have no choice but to issue a large amount of debt.
Thus, I believe the likelihood of a comprehensive ruling declaring the tariffs illegal is low. Personally, I estimate there may be the following three possibilities:
- Ruling that the tariffs exceeded authority, but no retroactive refund.
The court may rule that Trump exceeded the authority granted by Congress in imposing tariffs under the IEEPA, but given that the funds collected have already entered the treasury and been spent, and that large-scale refunds would lead to a federal financial collapse, this ruling would only take effect for the future. In other words, tariffs would cease from the date of the ruling, but no refunds would be issued for past collections.
- Ruling that the tariffs are legal, but with limitations and no increases allowed.
The court may rule that the current tariffs are reasonable administrative measures, emphasizing that tariffs only apply to specific emergencies and cannot be extended indefinitely, requiring Congress to be involved, thereby indirectly limiting the president's unilateral ability to increase tariffs in scope or amount.
- Ruling that some tariffs are legal, some are illegal, and no refunds.
The court may rule that some of the current tariffs are legal while others are illegal, and it may even allow the existing tariffs to continue but prohibit similar future expansions unless approved by Congress. Similarly, there would be no repercussions for already collected tariffs, but illegal tariffs cannot continue to be imposed.
These three scenarios are my personal views. Although Trump may have countermeasures, the premise is no refunds. If refunds are issued, it could cast a huge shadow over the Trump administration. If the final outcomes are scenario 1 or scenario 3, it would be favorable for the risk market, as it reduces uncertainty and lowers the likelihood of inflation changing with Trump's whims regarding tariffs.
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