The renewed attention centers on a December announcement by Logan Paul, who said he plans to auction his Pikachu Illustrator card in early 2026, ending years of speculation about whether the item would ever be publicly sold. The card is widely regarded as the rarest Pokémon card in existence, and Paul’s ownership has kept it firmly in the pop-culture spotlight.

On Polymarket, traders are actively wagering on how high the final hammer price could climb. The prediction market has turned the auction into a live referendum on both the card’s value and the broader appetite for trophy Pokémon collectibles and ones tied to celebrity ownership.

As of late December, Polymarket pricing shows strong confidence that the card will clear several major thresholds. Contracts implying a sale above $4 million were trading around 91%, with odds remaining elevated through the $6 million and $7 million levels. Confidence thins out as prices climb higher, with probabilities dropping sharply above $10 million and turning decidedly skeptical beyond $15 million, reflecting enthusiasm tempered by realism.

Polymarket bet.

The card’s origin story helps explain why even conservative estimates remain high. The Pikachu Illustrator was issued in 1998 as a prize in a Japanese illustration contest run by Corocoro Comic magazine. Rather than being mass-produced, the card was awarded to a tiny group of winners, with only 39 to 41 copies believed to exist worldwide.

The Pikachu Illustrator (1998 Japanese Promo, PSA 10) sits comfortably at the top of the Pokémon food chain, widely regarded as the hobby’s ultimate prize. Also, the Topsun Charizard Blue Back (1995 Japanese, PSA 10) carries a $500,000 valuation, the 1st Edition Shadowless Holo Charizard (1999 Base Set, PSA 10) checks in at $420,000, and the heavy hitters don’t stop there, with the Silver Pikachu No. 2 (trophy promo) priced at $444K, the Galaxy Star Blastoise (one-off print) tagged at $360K, and the Signed Base Set Charizard (by CEO Ishihara) hovering near $247,000.

What sets Paul’s example apart is the condition. His card is the only known Pikachu Illustrator graded PSA 10 by Professional Sports Authenticator, meaning it achieved a perfect score for centering, corners, edges, and surface. In the grading-driven world of high-end collectibles, that distinction alone places the card in a category of one. On the other hand, there is controversy stirring online in several social media posts questioning whether or not the card is really a PSA 10.

Paul acquired the card in a record-setting private transaction confirmed by Guinness World Records in 2022, paying roughly $5.3 million after trading a lower-graded Illustrator card plus cash. Since then, the card has doubled as a branding prop, appearing encased in a custom chain during wrestling events and interviews, turning a niche collectible into a mainstream spectacle. Although one of Paul’s haters messed with the card while it was on display at Fanatics Fest, ultimately knocking it over in the case.

The planned auction will reportedly be handled by Goldin Auctions, a platform known for high-profile sports and trading card sales. Previews are expected in January 2026, with bidding likely extending into February, and the final price will include buyer premiums when determining official results.

That structure matters for prediction markets. Polymarket contracts resolve based on the final Goldin sale price, including fees, by late February 2026. If the auction does not conclude by that date, or if thresholds are not met, contracts settle accordingly—giving traders a defined window but leaving plenty of room for drama.

Supporters point to broader trends favoring alternative assets. High-end Pokémon cards have posted eye-catching long-term appreciation, and proponents argue scarcity, combined with global fandom, creates durable demand. Paul himself has publicly framed collectibles as culturally meaningful stores of value, particularly for younger buyers less enamored with traditional markets.

Skeptics, meanwhile, question how much of the current enthusiasm reflects intrinsic value versus celebrity amplification. They argue that Paul’s visibility—and his ability to keep the card constantly in public view—may be doing as much work as rarity itself. Polymarket’s sliding odds at higher price tiers suggest many traders share that caution.

Online discussion has added another layer. Social media chatter, memes, and even novelty tokens referencing the card have circulated widely, turning the upcoming auction into a cross-over event touching collectibles, internet culture, and speculative finance. For better or worse, the card now exists as much in discourse as it does in a slab.

Logan Paul wearing the Pikachu Illustrator card on an iced-out chain.

Beyond price speculation and prediction-market enthusiasm, Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator card also carries an unresolved dispute tied to his involvement with Liquid Marketplace, a collectibles investment platform launched in 2022 that aimed to fractionalize ownership of high-value assets.

Paul promoted the Pikachu Illustrator as Liquid Marketplace’s flagship offering, encouraging users to purchase fractional tokens representing partial economic exposure to the card. The pitch centered on “democratizing” access to elite collectibles that would otherwise remain out of reach for most investors.

The platform, however, quickly became mired in complaints from users who alleged they were locked out of accounts and unable to access funds after Paul repurchased the card from the platform. Token holders claimed that while Paul regained full ownership, promised buyout proceeds were delayed or inaccessible. The short X summary post of this situation from an account called Loki went viral this week, gathering over 19,000 likes and 1.1 thousand re-posts.

Paul addressed the situation in an X post on Christmas Eve, offering reassurance to users impacted by the platform’s issues. “For those affected and unable to withdraw your funds: Please know that I am actively working with Liquid Marketplace to help ensure these funds can be released in the near future, just as intended when I repurchased the Illustrator in May 2024,” he said. The post also includes an X Community Note noting that Paul is a co-founder of Liquid Marketplace.

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If the point of contention is resolved and alleged outstanding issues are settled, and the auction lands within Paul’s publicly cited $7 million to $12 million range, it would reinforce the card’s status as the undisputed heavyweight of the Pokémon collecting world. A lower outcome could cool expectations, while a higher one would reset benchmarks across the trading card market.

Either way, Polymarket’s odds suggest one thing is clear: traders expect the Pikachu Illustrator to change hands for a staggering sum, even if they are divided on just how stratospheric that final number will be. The auction now stands as a test case for how far nostalgia, scarcity, and star power can push a single piece of cardboard.

• What is Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator card?
  It is a rare 1998 Pokémon prize card from a Japanese illustration contest, with Paul owning the only PSA 10 example.
• When will Logan Paul auction the Pikachu Illustrator?
  The auction is expected to take place in early 2026, with previews beginning in January.
• What do Polymarket odds suggest about the sale price?
  Prediction markets currently favor a sale well above $4 million, with declining confidence at higher thresholds.
• Why is the card so valuable?
  Its extreme rarity, perfect condition, and cultural exposure through Paul all contribute to its high valuation.

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