As of today, Bitcoin is oscillating in a high range, with prices repeatedly fluctuating around historical highs, maintaining a double-digit volatility range. Recently, according to a data provider, Bitcoin-related funds experienced a net outflow in a single day: GBTC approximately $24.6 million, BITB approximately $13.3 million, ARKB approximately $9.9 million, and HODL approximately $8 million, indicating a subtle change in the marginal direction of funds. As prices remain high and funds begin to flow out of passive products, CZ reiterated in a Christmas tweet the idea of "buying in fear rather than chasing at historical highs," which, combined with the prediction that the TGE issuance in 2026 may increase by 15%-30%, constitutes the most critical structural signal in the current market.
CZ's Christmas Tweet Amidst High-Range Oscillation
As Bitcoin prices continue to hover near historical highs and volatility intensifies, CZ's Christmas tweet has been relayed by several Chinese crypto media outlets, with the core message being: true early Bitcoin buyers purchase during times of fear and doubt in the market, rather than chasing at historical highs. Multiple media outlets (such as Jinshi Kuaixun, PANews, TechFlowDaily) reported on this viewpoint, making it a focal point of market discussions during the holiday season. This contrarian investment signal coincides with the high price, heightened narrative, and fund differentiation, establishing a "calm anchor point" for sentiment and position management.
Fund Flow Differentiation: High Prices and Net Outflows from Passive Products
Recent statistics from a data provider show that Bitcoin-related funds experienced collective net outflows on the previous trading day: GBTC approximately $24.6 million, BITB approximately $13.3 million, ARKB approximately $9.9 million, and HODL approximately $8 million, totaling nearly $56 million. Although this is not extreme, the directional change is worth observing. When prices are still at the upper range, passive exposure funds are choosing to reduce their positions, indicating that some funds are beginning to reassess current valuations and subsequent volatility. The combination of high prices and fund net outflows presents a structural differentiation of "price optimism, fund caution," providing a realistic context for interpreting CZ's contrarian viewpoint.
Buying in Fear: From Slogan to Price—Time Structure
If "buying in fear" remains at the slogan level, it can easily devolve into emotional contrarianism; once it is grounded in data, it must return to the structure of price and time. Looking back at previous major retracement phases, market fear often corresponds to several commonalities: the retracement from high prices approaches or exceeds 50%, fear sentiment indicators remain in a low range for an extended period, trading volume shrinks, turnover slows, and chips flow back from short-term chasing funds to long-term holders. Historically, the true "fear buying zone" is often a dual "bottoming" phase of price and time, rather than a single-day sharp decline or emotional outbursts on social media.
Current Contrarian: Is it Bottom Fishing, or a Contrarian Approach to Rhythm and Risk Budgeting?
In the current phase of Bitcoin's high-range oscillation, "fear" is more reflected in concerns about subsequent retracements rather than absolute low prices. At this point, discussing contrarianism is closer to managing rhythm and risk budgeting rather than simply "buying when seeing a drop." For long-term allocation funds, contrarianism may mean: slowing down the accumulation pace when prices approach historical highs, reserving enough room for retracement and cash ratio; and gradually executing buying plans within established ranges during significant corrections. The more reasonable interpretation of contrarianism at this stage is "slow down in greed, execute established plans in true fear," rather than viewing any retracement as a uniform buying signal.
TGE Expectation Expansion: From Valuation Game to Value Selection
Parallel to Bitcoin's high-range oscillation, the primary issuance side is brewing a new round of supply shocks. A PANews article predicts that the TGE issuance in 2026 may increase by approximately 15%-30% from the current level, emphasizing structural changes in "incremental supply" rather than a single star project. The article also suggests that the market may enter a cycle of "intensive TGE issuance—value/price fluctuations and collapses—market adjustment and reshaping," forcing funds to shift from merely chasing high FDV and low circulation valuation games to focusing more on product-market fit (PMF). If the total TGE issuance indeed rises significantly as expected, the "valuation discovery" game space on the issuance side will be compressed, and funds will passively move towards a "value discovery" mode in project selection.
Supply Density and Liquidity Squeeze: A Mirror of Historical ICO Cycles
From the macro data of past primary issuance cycles, whether early ICOs or later TGE waves, several commonalities emerge: the number of projects sharply increases in a short time, average fundraising scales and FDV rise, followed by concentrated unlocking in the secondary market and severe price volatility. Given the relatively limited total liquidity, the denser the primary supply, the more pronounced the pressure on funds and pricing in the secondary market. Intensive TGE issuance often means "multiple projects competing for the same pool of liquidity," with the divergence between price and value amplified in the early stages, followed by a large-scale clearing and adjustment completing a round of selection.
From FDV Narrative to PMF Data: Shifting TGE Pricing Logic
In the previous phase, many TGE's core selling points focused on high FDV, endorsements from star institutions, and extremely low initial circulation and unlocking curve designs, with valuation discovery largely driven by sentiment and liquidity. As market education and regulatory pressures increase, indicators of "value discovery" are beginning to surface: whether the project has found a clear PMF, whether there is verifiable real user data, and whether the income structure can form a closed-loop mapping at the Token level. The shift of TGE from valuation discovery to value discovery essentially transitions from "telling a high FDV story" to "explaining current valuation with real usage and income," which will significantly raise the professional threshold for both projects and investors.
The Link Between Bitcoin Fund Net Outflows and Primary Market Supply Expectations
When representative passive products in the secondary market experience net outflows, while the primary market is predicted to expand supply by 15%-30% in the coming year, the issue of fund redistribution among different Betas comes to the forefront. Statistics from a data provider show that a single-day net outflow of nearly $56 million, while not enough to change long-term trends, provides a window for observing marginal fund preferences. Under the premise that Bitcoin's role as a "liquidity anchor" remains relatively stable, the adjustment of funds between passive BTC exposure and high-volatility TGE assets will become an important structural variable in the upcoming phase.
BTC Liquidity Anchor and TGE High Beta Asset Combination Game
From a macro asset allocation perspective, Bitcoin is more viewed as an interest rate and macro liquidity-sensitive asset, serving as the pricing anchor for the entire crypto market; while TGE projects often carry higher growth potential and volatility, providing amplified upside and downside space. As TGE supply expectations rise and regulations tighten, factors such as chip unlocking, secondary liquidity depth, and market-making costs will jointly determine its risk premium. The rebalancing of funds between "BTC Beta" and "early project high Beta" will directly impact the marginal buying strength of Bitcoin and the price trajectory of TGE projects post-launch.
DAC8: Increased Transparency and Constraints on Fund Behavior
From a regulatory perspective, the EU's Digital Asset Tax Transparency Directive DAC8 is set to take effect on January 1, 2026, incorporating crypto-related activities into a unified tax reporting system. This means that exchanges, custodians, and other related service providers will bear higher information reporting obligations, increasing the visibility of cross-border fund flows and compliance costs. DAC8 raises the tax transparency threshold for crypto activities, strengthening regulatory constraints while providing a clearer compliance path for institutional funds to enter.
TGE Under Regulatory Pressure: Compliance Premium and Clearing of Air Projects
Driven by frameworks like DAC8, the fundraising structure and participant composition of TGE projects will inevitably change, with compliance and tax handling capabilities shifting from "marginal topics" to "necessary conditions for fundraising." For project parties, more transparent sources and uses of funds, along with more standardized participant disclosures, will somewhat weaken the short-term arbitrage space of "quick in and out." In an environment of increased transparency, "air projects" lacking real business and unable to self-verify compliance and value will face faster rejection from funds, while "regulatory-friendly, data-traceable" projects are likely to gain some valuation premium.
2025-2026 Allocation Framework: Finding Anchor Points Between Contrarianism and Structural Changes
From the current standpoint, CZ's emphasis on "buying in fear" and the structural changes in TGE can jointly form the allocation framework for 2025-2026: Bitcoin remains the liquidity and sentiment anchor in the portfolio, high-quality mainstream coins bear mid-range Beta, while selected TGE/early projects provide aggressive exposure. For funds with different risk preferences, it is crucial to determine: the maximum tolerable retracement during Bitcoin's high-range oscillation phase, the dollar-cost averaging bandwidth, and the unlocking and liquidity risks they are willing to bear against the backdrop of a potential 15%-30% expansion in TGE supply. Contrarian investing in this cycle resembles a "structured decision": finding rhythm between Bitcoin's price—sentiment—fund flow, and filtering within the TGE's valuation—value—regulatory triangle, rather than simply opposing market sentiment.
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