Author: Andy Greenberg

Translated by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Once, online black markets were hidden in the shadows of the dark web. Now, they have moved to public platforms like Telegram, amassing historic illegal wealth.

More than a decade ago, when black markets for drugs, guns, and various contraband first emerged on the dark web, the technical complexities of cryptocurrency and the anonymous software Tor seemed to be key means for facilitating billions of dollars in illegal transactions.

However, by 2025, all of this seemed somewhat outdated. Today, to complete tens of billions of dollars in black market crypto transactions, all that is needed is a messaging app willing to provide a platform for scammers and human traffickers, the perseverance to recreate channels and accounts when banned, and fluency in Chinese.

According to a recent analysis by crypto tracking company Elliptic, the Chinese crypto scammer market ecosystem based on the Telegram messaging service has now developed to an unprecedented scale. Although there was a brief decline after Telegram banned the two largest such markets in early 2025, the current two major markets—“Potato Guarantee” and “New Coin Guarantee”—achieve nearly $2 billion in monthly transaction volume through money laundering activities, selling scam tools (such as stolen data, fake investment websites, and AI face-swapping tools), and other black market services (such as surrogacy and underage prostitution).

Crypto romance scams and investment scams are notorious for their brutal “pig butchering” operation model. These scams primarily operate from secret bases in Southeast Asia, often consisting of thousands of trafficked victims. According to the FBI, these scams can defraud about $10 billion annually in the U.S. alone, making them one of the most profitable forms of cybercrime globally.

By providing money laundering services and other related tools to these scam organizations, markets like “Potato Guarantee” and “New Coin Guarantee” have rapidly expanded and grown large. Tom Robinson, co-founder and chief scientist of Elliptic, stated, “If you consider the illegal uses of crypto assets, there is currently nothing larger than this.”

In fact, these criminal transaction markets are not only the largest online black markets today but also the largest in history. The once-dominant dark web market AlphaBay was known for selling drugs, stolen data, and hacking tools. According to the FBI, AlphaBay had over $1 billion in transactions during its two and a half years of operation, ten times that of the original Silk Road dark web market at its peak. Meanwhile, the Russian dark web market Hydra completed over $5 billion in transactions during its seven years of operation, providing money laundering services for cryptocurrency thieves and ransomware gangs.

In contrast, according to Elliptic data, the Chinese Telegram group market “Huione Guarantee” completed an astonishing $27 billion in transactions from 2021 to 2025, far surpassing all previous online black markets. Even though it operates completely openly on the Telegram platform, it is still referred to as “the largest illegal online market in history.”

Although Telegram banned “Huione Guarantee” (which had been renamed “Haowang Guarantee”) in May this year, citing that the U.S. Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) listed it as a money laundering operation platform, the market did not disappear. Haowang Guarantee, which held shares in “Potato Guarantee,” quickly filled this gap. According to Elliptic data, Potato Guarantee's monthly transaction volume has now reached $1.1 billion, nearly matching Haowang Guarantee's $1.4 billion monthly transaction volume. The second-ranked crypto scam market, “New Coin Guarantee,” although also banned in May and relaunched, has seen its monthly transaction volume increase to $850 million. The total transaction volume of the two major markets even exceeds the previous total market size, and Elliptic currently monitors about 30 similar markets, which collectively achieve hundreds of billions of dollars in annual transaction volume.

In June of this year, when WIRED magazine contacted Telegram to point out how these markets were rebuilding their criminal empires in public view, Telegram's response sparked controversy. Telegram stated that they decided not to impose bans on these markets, believing that they provide a way for Chinese users to circumvent “capital controls,” which often leave citizens with no choice but to seek other means for international capital flow. “We assess each report on a case-by-case basis and firmly reject blanket bans—especially when users are trying to circumvent oppressive restrictions imposed by authoritarian regimes,” Telegram stated in a June declaration to WIRED, “We remain steadfastly committed to protecting user privacy and defending fundamental freedoms, including financial autonomy.”

This stance has sparked widespread controversy and raised the question: can we turn a blind eye to cybercrime under the banner of protecting privacy and freedom?

Elliptic and other analysts in the scam industry have strongly rebutted Telegram's view of maintaining market freedom, pointing out that the vast majority of market activities like “Potato Guarantee” and “New Coin Guarantee” are illegal. In addition to scam-related services, these markets also involve prostitution transactions—posts in New Coin Guarantee even feature suggestive advertisements for underage sexual services, such as “Lolita” or “young girl” services. Furthermore, clients of these scam operations are widely recorded as using forced labor in modern slavery-like conditions.

“They have the ability to shut down this scam economy and human trafficking activities, but they have become a ‘classified ad platform’ for cryptocurrency scammers,” said Erin West, a former prosecutor in Santa Clara County, California, and now the leader of the anti-fraud organization “Operation Shamrock.” “These bad actors are using their bad platform to facilitate other bad actors.”

In addition to Telegram, another cryptocurrency company, Tether, also plays a key role in these scam markets. This popular stablecoin is the preferred tool for money laundering transactions in these markets. Unlike most cryptocurrencies, Tether has a centralized structure, meaning the company behind it (Tether Ltd.) can seize or freeze funds at any time. However, the company has made little intervention regarding the massive flows of funds it supports.

In response to WIRED's request for comments on its role in the black market transactions of “Potato Guarantee” and “New Coin Guarantee,” both Telegram and Tether did not respond.

Jacob Sims, a visiting scholar at Harvard University's Asia Center focusing on transnational crime research, believes that Tether and Telegram's efforts to combat the expansion of the scam industry are akin to the “symbolic” raid actions by Southeast Asian law enforcement against scam bases. These law enforcement actions are often merely formal, allowing these scam organizations to rebuild and resume operations afterward. “The lack of effective enforcement at all levels leads to an inability to combat this effectively,” Sims stated.

Sims also pointed out that only through concentrated cooperation among international governments and law enforcement agencies can substantial changes be made to this situation. He likened this effort to coordinated actions against global terrorism or drug trafficking, arguing that the same international pressure should be applied to companies that fuel the proliferation of scams.

“The current response to this increasingly severe scam industry has not reached that level of coordination and urgency,” Sims said, “and only when we elevate it to a priority that matches the immense damage it causes can the problem potentially be solved.”

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