As of 2025-12-24 22:56, the OKX-BTC/USDT price is approximately $87,058.40, with a 5-minute increase of 0.15%, but a decline of about 2.08% over the past 24 hours, and a market capitalization of approximately $1.75 trillion. Currently, Bitcoin is testing downward within the high range of $80,000 to $90,000, combined with signals of slowing demand growth and weakened purchasing power in the U.S. market, which has intensified the debate in the market over the paths of "high-level fluctuations" and "mid-term adjustments." In the short term, funds will focus on observing whether the trading volume and on-chain demand around the $80,000 line can stabilize, to determine whether the current pullback is a phase of turnover or a potential trend reversal.
Market Status
Recently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around the $80,000 to $90,000 range. In the latest round of volatility, the price briefly fell below the $87,000 mark. As of 22:56, the OKX-BTC/USDT price is reported at $87,058.40, with a 24-hour decline of about 2.08%, corresponding to a total market capitalization of approximately $1.75 trillion. From an absolute price perspective, Bitcoin is still at a historical high, but in the short term, it has fallen several thousand dollars from its peak, exhibiting typical characteristics of "high-level pullback + reduced volatility."
There are slight price differences between different platforms, with OKX quoting slightly differently from other mainstream exchanges, which reflects more on liquidity distribution and order book depth differences rather than trend divergences. Currently, the depth of the mainstream spot and perpetual markets remains in a relatively healthy range, but the willingness to transact has cooled.
From a yearly perspective, Bitcoin's overall operation in 2025 is within a wide fluctuation range after a rise, with prices repeatedly oscillating around the high range. Historically, its relative height is significantly higher than most periods of the previous cycle. This means that every few percentage points of fluctuation currently correspond to larger nominal market value changes, significantly increasing the market's sensitivity to the question of "whether we have entered a new round of mid-term adjustments."
Driving Factors: News, Funds, and Sentiment
From the funding perspective, the BTC perpetual contract data provided by OKX shows that purchasing power in the U.S. market has weakened over the past 12 hours, with the BTC perpetual price being pressured around $86,800 and the platform warning that "the price may decline." This type of data based on a single platform indicates that active buying during the main trading hours is cooling, and in the short term, prices are more reliant on the game of existing positions rather than the push from incremental funds.
On-chain and institutional data provide another clue. Analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin demand growth is slowing, warning that "the market is entering a bear market, and the risk of decline is increasing." This judgment is mainly based on the marginal weakening of new funds and on-chain activity indicators, reflecting a short to mid-term "insufficient incremental purchasing power" rather than a simple technical pattern interpretation.
On the sentiment front, there is a clear divergence. On one side, there are chain interpretations around "slowing demand" and "bear market signals," prompting some investors to reduce leverage and cut high-risk positions; on the other side, major platforms and project parties continue to promote ecosystems and activities, such as OKX continuing to push the OKX-Mas Challenge during the same period, encouraging users to add the OKX Card to Apple/Google Wallet, showing that operations are still striving for activity and retention. Public sentiment samples indicate that overall sentiment is closer to a mix of "panic + caution + wait-and-see," rather than a one-sided extreme panic.
Deep Logic: Platform Expansion and Liquidity Misalignment
Looking ahead to 2025, leading platforms represented by OKX are continuously expanding in compliance and infrastructure, with their regulated market trading volume experiencing significant growth throughout the year, while also improving on both decentralized and centralized trading fronts. Meanwhile, second-layer networks like X Layer have launched features for 0 Gas fee transfers of USDT and USDC, attempting to attract more trading and asset accumulation by lowering on-chain usage thresholds.
However, from the user experience perspective, the market generally reports that "liquidity is thinning, and the difficulty of making profits is increasing." A significant decline in wallet rebate income is a typical indicator, suggesting that even if the platform's statistically significant trading volume is increasing, the distribution of participants and the real willingness to trade actively may not be balanced. The misalignment between "platform data trending up" and "individual experience feeling cold" is a comprehensive result of increased institutionalization, heightened concentration among leading players, and decreased activity from small to medium-sized funds.
Sector rotation is also quietly occurring. While BTC is under pressure at high levels, some new narratives and new tracks continue to attract attention. For example, Sei Network has undertaken a series of actions in 2025 around RWA, institutional adoption, and building channels like Robinhood/Binance/OKX, with significant increases in on-chain daily active users and trading volume in the third quarter. Directions such as RWA, L1 expansion, public chain games, and DeFi lending still have incremental topics and funding attention recently, reinforcing the market impression of "indices under pressure but structural opportunities exist."
From a macro perspective, global liquidity, the interest rate path since 2024, and the performance of the U.S. stock market are all influencing the risk appetite pricing of crypto assets. Some viewpoints emphasize that the repricing of U.S. stocks in the technology and growth sectors has led some funds to prefer expressing risk appetite through traditional market tools like the Nasdaq index and tech stocks, while the marginal allocation willingness towards crypto assets, especially high-level BTC, has contracted.
Bull-Bear Game: Slowing Demand and High-Level Turnover Narratives
In the current range, both bearish and bullish logic have certain data support, with the divergence mainly concentrated on the "sustainability of slowing demand" and the "timing of incremental funds returning."
From a bearish perspective, CryptoQuant's assertion of "slowing demand growth" presents a mid-term concern from an on-chain level. The deceleration of new address growth, the rising willingness of long-term holders to reduce holdings, and the periodic increase in net inflows to exchanges are all interpreted as signals of "chips migrating from strong hands to trading hands." Coupled with the weakening purchasing power in the U.S. market and the retreat of buying in perpetual contracts shown in OKX data, bears would argue that the current price range above $80,000 lacks sufficient spot incremental support, and any disturbances from the macro or regulatory side could more easily form a chain reaction of "high-level pullback - leverage unwinding."
The bullish perspective emphasizes historical cycles and structural support. In past cycles, Bitcoin has often experienced several weeks to months of pullbacks and sideways movements during high-level fluctuations after strong upward trends, followed by renewed upward movements as funds and narratives recover. Supporting this view is the expansion of compliant platforms and infrastructure construction this year: more regulated market investors can access BTC through compliant channels, and exchanges are promoting low-cost on-chain transfers and a richer array of derivative tools, which theoretically helps to enhance long-term "absorption capacity." From the bulls' perspective, it currently resembles a phase of "high-level turnover + structural rotation," rather than a confirmed cyclical top.
It is worth noting that the emergence of some cross-market strategies also reflects the complexity of structural capital games. For example, some KOLs have suggested expressing a relative bearish view on "tech risk assets vs. crypto industry equities" by going long on the Nasdaq index and hedging crypto-related stocks against the backdrop of on-chain migration in U.S. stocks and favorable conditions in the Ethereum ecosystem. Such views are not specific operational advice but reflect a shift in sentiment among some funds towards "going long on broad tech assets while cautiously treating risks in crypto industry stocks and platforms."
The key divergence variables between bulls and bears focus on four levels: whether macro liquidity continues to improve, whether a new round of incremental funds enters the market, whether regulatory expectations are easing or tightening, and whether the industry's fundamentals (hash rate, application landing, on-chain activity) can provide sufficient support.
Market Outlook: Three Scenarios and Key Observation Points
Under the current data and sentiment framework, Bitcoin's future can roughly be broken down into three main scenarios, each relying on a set of observable conditions rather than a single price point prediction.
In the first scenario, demand continues to decline, and Bitcoin enters a longer mid-term adjustment structure. If, over the next period, on-chain activity continues to weaken, new address and net fund inflows remain sluggish, and both the U.S. and Asian markets' spot and contract purchasing power do not show significant recovery, then the current range above $80,000 may gradually evolve into a mid-term top area. At this point, price behavior may manifest as: the lower edge of the high-level box being repeatedly tested, daily volatility increasing, but overall trading volume not expanding in tandem, more so a redistribution of existing chips.
In the second scenario, demand stabilizes and is accompanied by capital rotation, allowing Bitcoin to maintain high-level fluctuations and nurture a new round of rebounds. The premise is: a significant net inflow of spot trading reappears at the exchange level, on-chain new funds and active trading volumes show some recovery, and the leverage and positions in the derivatives market trend towards balance rather than one-sided accumulation. If these conditions occur, the area around $80,000 is likely to be gradually viewed by the market as a relatively reliable turnover zone, with subsequent upward rebounds often accompanied by increased trading volume and the repair of the spot-futures basis.
The third scenario is structural differentiation: the oscillation center of Bitcoin slightly shifts downward, but sectors and individual assets perform more actively. In this path, BTC may oscillate up and down within a wide range, with overall returns relatively flat, but sectors like RWA, public chain L1, DeFi lending, and chain games may show significant strength differentiation due to different narratives and capital flows. Sei Network's multiple advancements in RWA and institutional adoption this year is one template of this "local prosperity under index pressure." The continued expansion of compliant platforms and infrastructure upgrades will further strengthen this sector rotation effect in the mid-term.
From a risk management perspective, the following data dimensions are worth closely tracking: first, the trend changes in new and active addresses on-chain, as well as the net inflow/outflow of BTC at major exchanges; second, the funding rates, basis structure, and liquidation scales of perpetual contracts and futures, to avoid one-sided accumulation of leverage; third, the rhythm changes in U.S. stocks and macro policies, including interest rate expectations and tech sector performance; fourth, potential "black swan" or positive catalysts from the regulatory side, such as a new round of ETFs or institutional allocation windows.
Within the high range of $80,000 to $90,000, the core contradiction of Bitcoin lies not in whether a single price point is briefly broken, but in how the forces of supply and demand find a new balance during the process of slowing demand growth and capital rotation.
In the coming period, the market needs to return to the data and framework itself: not to overly amplify the technical significance of short-term breakdowns, nor to ignore the marginal changes in on-chain and funding aspects. The phase of coexistence of bullish and bearish logic is essentially a stage of intensified games and widened divergences, where participants should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance and independent research. All content in this article is based on publicly available data and research briefs and does not constitute any investment advice.
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