Written by: Micah Zimmerman

Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin experienced significant turbulence. Particularly in December, the price dropped nearly 9%, with volatility soaring to its highest level since April 2025. However, VanEck pointed out in its "ChainCheck" report released in mid-December that market liquidity is improving, and speculative leverage seems to be resetting, providing cautious optimism for long-term holders.

VanEck's digital asset analysts painted a complex picture in the report: despite ongoing weakness in on-chain activity, the liquidity environment is improving, and speculative leverage is gradually being cleared, offering a glimmer of hope for long-term investors.

The report specifically highlighted the behavioral differences among various investor groups. Digital asset treasury companies continued to buy the dip, increasing their holdings by 42,000 BTC in December, the largest single-month increase since July, pushing their total holdings above 1 million BTC.

In contrast, Bitcoin exchange-traded product investors reduced their positions. This underscores a market shift from retail-driven speculation to corporate-level asset accumulation.

VanEck analysts also mentioned that some digital asset treasury companies are exploring new financing methods, such as raising funds through preferred stock rather than common stock to purchase Bitcoin and maintain operations, reflecting a more strategic long-term approach.

On-chain data also revealed a divergence between medium-term and long-term holders. Tokens held for 1 to 5 years showed significant movement, possibly due to profit-taking or position adjustments, while tokens held for over 5 years remained largely "asleep."

VanEck interprets this as indicating that cyclical or short-term participants are selling assets, while the most seasoned holders remain confident in Bitcoin's future.

Bitcoin Miners Face Challenges from Declining Hash Rate

Miners are in a difficult position. VanEck data shows that the overall network hash rate fell by 4% in December, marking the largest decline since April 2024. This is due to production cuts in high hash rate regions like Xinjiang under regulatory pressure. At the same time, the breakeven electricity cost for mainstream mining machines is also decreasing, reflecting a compression of miners' profit margins.

However, VanEck noted that historically, a decline in hash rate may actually be a bullish contrarian indicator: in the past, each time the hash rate has consistently declined, Bitcoin has often seen a price increase within the following 90 to 180 days.

VanEck's analysis is based on its proprietary GEO framework, which assesses Bitcoin's structural health from three dimensions: global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity, rather than merely focusing on short-term price fluctuations.

From the GEO perspective, the improvement in liquidity and the accumulation by digital asset treasury companies somewhat offset the weak signals of stagnation in the growth of active addresses and declining transaction fees.

On a macro level, complexities are also added to Bitcoin's outlook. The U.S. dollar index has fallen to a near three-month low, driving up precious metal prices, but crypto assets like Bitcoin continue to face pressure.

However, the evolution of the financial ecosystem may bring new support. Market observers have noted the rise of "everything exchanges," platforms dedicated to integrating stocks, cryptocurrencies, and prediction markets, employing AI-driven trading and settlement systems.

Just last week, Coinbase launched an expanded feature similar to "everything exchanges," adding stock trading, prediction markets, futures, and other products. VanEck believes that various institutions, from traditional brokerages to crypto-native companies, are flocking to this space to capture market share, which is expected to enhance Bitcoin's liquidity and application value in the long run.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Remains Significant

Despite this, high volatility remains a hallmark of Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin has doubled in value over the past two years and nearly tripled in three years, the absence of extreme price surges and drops seen in previous cycles has led to more rational market expectations. Future Bitcoin trends may be more stable, with medium-term investors facing smaller cyclical fluctuations rather than the large swings of the past.

VanEck concluded that the overall market is currently in an adjustment phase: short- to medium-term speculative activities are waning, long-term holders are steadfast in their positions, and institutional accumulation continues to increase. Coupled with miners scaling back, converging volatility, and macroeconomic dynamics, the market is currently in a period of structural rebalancing.

As 2025 draws to a close, VanEck believes Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase, reflecting the overall maturation of the market. This consolidation phase may lay the groundwork for a strong rally in the first quarter of next year.

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