Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Prediction markets have been a hot topic of discussion in the community recently. In addition to Polymarket and Kalshi, the prediction markets within the BNB Chain ecosystem have also been growing. According to Dune data, as of yesterday, among the three major prediction video platforms in the BNB Chain ecosystem, Opinion is currently far ahead of the other two, holding a market share of 75% with a trading volume of $125 million yesterday; next, Probable, backed by the PancakeSwap team, holds a market share of 14.5% with a trading volume of $24 million yesterday; predict.fun, founded by dingaling, ranks third with a market share of 10.5% and a trading volume of $17 million yesterday.
BNB Chain ecosystem prediction market share (December 22)
BNB Chain ecosystem prediction market trading volume (December 22)
Next, Odaily Planet Daily will introduce the three prediction market platforms in the BNB Chain ecosystem that received investment from YZi Labs: Opinion, predict.fun, and Probable.
Opinion: The leading prediction market in the BNB Chain ecosystem, launched a Christmas & New Year points event yesterday
Opinion is the first prediction market platform in the BNB Chain ecosystem. According to ROOTDATA, Opinion announced the completion of a $5 million seed round financing on March 18 this year, led by YZi Labs, with participation from echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold, Amber Group, and others. Additionally, Opinion was one of the top four performing projects in the previous Binance Labs MVB program.
Points Rules
Opinion's points distribution is weekly, with a total of 100,000 points awarded each week, as follows:
Trading volume requirement: Each week ≥ $200 (and a single order ≥ $10) to count towards points.
Holding time: The larger the position and the longer the holding time → the higher the points.
Liquidity orders (limit orders): Limit order amount ≥ $10 counts for points; the longer the order is placed and the closer the price is to the best bid and ask price → the more points; limit orders have 0 fees and add points weight, making it the most stable way to earn points (market orders incur about 2% fees).
Trading volume and fees: The larger the transaction amount and the more fees contributed, the more points earned.
Christmas & New Year Points Event
Yesterday (December 22), Opinion announced on the X platform the launch of the Christmas & New Year points event, with the following details:
- Event rewards: A total of 100,000 points;
- Event duration: From December 22 to January 5, 2026, lasting two weeks;
- Points earning methods: Daily Warriors, a total of 20,000 points (daily trading > 3 transactions, and meet > 10 days); Volume Kings: a total of 20,000 points (daily trading volume > $2,000, and meet > 10 days); Binance Wallet Elite: a total of 10,000 points (cumulative trading volume > $2,000 during the event); Diamond Hands: a total of 20,000 points; Mystery Finale: a total of 30,000 points.
Additionally, here are a few important notes regarding the points earning methods:
- Diamond Hands Reward: Distributed based on the time-weighted open positions of all users during the event period, with data sourced from the platform's regular snapshots;
- Daily Warriors and Volume Kings Rewards: Wallets that meet the corresponding daily trading thresholds for at least 10 days during the event will share the respective rewards;
- Binance Wallet Elite Reward: Users who complete a cumulative trading volume of > $2,000 during the event using Binance Wallet will share the rewards. This reward must use a keyless address or a newly imported wallet; previously registered wallets on OPINION are not eligible.
predict.fun: Founded by the well-known NFT figure dingaling, the first week's points event will end tonight at 10 PM
predict.fun is a prediction market platform launched on the BNB Chain, founded by the well-known NFT figure dingaling. Unlike traditional prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, predict.fun has achieved a key innovation: the funds users participate with in predictions are no longer idle but can generate additional returns during the prediction period.
On December 17, predict.fun's founder dingaling announced on the X platform that the platform is officially open and has airdropped initial points to Meme traders, Aster participants, and active users in various prediction markets on the BNB Chain. (For more interactive tutorials, read: A step-by-step guide to participating in predict.fun supported by CZ)
Today, predict.fun officially announced on the X platform that the first week's points event will end tonight at 10 PM Beijing time, and three days later, the prediction points rewards and other additional airdrop rewards will be credited to users' accounts, and the leaderboard will also be updated. Furthermore, the second week's points event will start immediately after the first week's event ends.
Probable: A prediction market incubated by PancakeSwap, the points system is about to launch
On December 16, PancakeSwap announced the launch of the fully on-chain prediction market platform Probable (the platform language can be switched to Simplified Chinese), which is jointly supported by PancakeSwap and YZi Labs and will be exclusively deployed on the BNB Chain. PancakeSwap stated that Probable is an independent project, and its team will advance product implementation and ecosystem expansion with the support of PancakeSwap and YZi Labs.
According to reports, Probable is positioned as a user-centric on-chain prediction platform, featuring zero fees, full on-chain settlement, and a simplified user experience. Initially, the platform will not charge prediction fees, leveraging the low-cost and high-performance infrastructure of the BNB Chain to support users in predicting the trends of crypto assets, global events, sports events, and some region-specific markets.
On the mechanism level, Probable uses UMA's Optimistic Oracle as an event adjudication tool, achieving result confirmation through a dispute-based verification method to enhance the transparency and censorship resistance of the prediction market. Additionally, users can recharge with any token, and the system will automatically convert it to USDT on the BNB Chain for participation in predictions, lowering the operational threshold.
Currently, the Probable points system has not yet launched. According to official information, a brand new points system is about to be introduced, and points will be calculated based on users' trading volume. The backend has already started to track and accumulate users' current trading volume.
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