Recently, the Bitcoin market has experienced severe fluctuations. Against the backdrop of the U.S. November CPI data being lower than expected and the SEC updating and clarifying cryptocurrency asset rules, optimistic sentiment in the crypto market has begun to emerge. Market sentiment is at a greed threshold, and key investment positions are filled with anticipation.

Market news ignited the market: The U.S. November unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate is 2.7%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%, while the core CPI year-on-year rate also stands at 2.6%, marking a new low since March 2021. This data has become a catalyst for a market turnaround, significantly boosting investor confidence in risk assets. Additionally, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. is 224,000, also reflecting economic stability.

Capital flow trends: Data shows that in the on-chain Bitcoin dynamics, long-term holders have sold nearly 1 million BTC in the past 30 days, setting a historical high. At the same time, shark addresses have net bought approximately 270,000 BTC, reflecting medium-sized investors' confidence in the market. This large-scale selling and buying behavior indicates turnover risk in the market, but it may also signal that the market is entering a new bull market phase.

This fluctuation is not an isolated event; it is highly related to the macroeconomic environment in the U.S. The alleviation of economic pressures in the U.S. may stimulate the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy in the future, which would benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the probability of the European Central Bank raising interest rates before March 2027 exceeds 50%, which may affect the global market to varying degrees, creating a chain reaction of volatility.

Optimists believe that this pullback is healthy, and the positive factors that boost market confidence have not yet been fully priced in. Although on-chain selling is frequent, the market is also welcoming potential new capital inflows. Conversely, pessimists worry that continued selling may trigger deeper adjustments. Especially in light of the current warming macroeconomic data, recent gains may face delays or corrections.

In the short term, the market needs to pay attention to Bitcoin's performance at key technical levels. The current market environment, particularly the progress of regulatory policies, may be triggering new layout opportunities. Recently, the U.S. SEC's clarification of rules regarding non-security cryptocurrency assets indicates that customer protection for cryptocurrency assets in bankruptcy liquidation will be strengthened. Despite the increasing regulatory power, the establishment of a compliance framework may further consolidate the market.

Therefore, within the current panic, there may be rare investment opportunities hidden, especially as the recovery power of risk assets may be gathering. Investors need to seize the potential market opportunities in this fluctuation, facing short-term market risks on one hand, while grasping new participation windows, preparing to welcome the upcoming bull market.

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