Written by: Blockchain Knight

The first quarter of 2026 brings new expectations for Bitcoin, driven not by the launch of bank stablecoins, but by the accelerated opening of traditional wealth channels. Vanguard and Bank of America have successively relaxed restrictions on crypto investments, and combined with seasonal benefits, this is expected to hedge against market turbulence at the end of 2025.

Vanguard, which manages $11 trillion in assets, lifted its ban on crypto investments in early December, allowing 50 million customers to trade spot ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more. Although it does not issue its own crypto products, its vast retail coverage has the potential to inject incremental growth into the market.

Starting January 5, Bank of America will allow Merrill Lynch and private banking advisors to actively recommend crypto ETPs, guiding suitable clients to allocate 1%-4% of their assets into mainstream Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. This means that hundreds of billions of dollars in wealth, previously excluded, will gain access.

According to River data, nearly 60% of the 25 largest banks in the U.S. are currently at some stage of directly selling, custodying, or providing Bitcoin consulting services.

Buyers in early 2026 are more likely to be retirement accounts adding a 2% Bitcoin position, rather than high-leverage crypto funds.

Since 2013, Bitcoin's average return in February has been around 15%, with average gains exceeding 50% in Q1. However, Q1 of 2025 recorded the worst performance in a decade (down 12%), confirming that patterns are not absolute.

Current market expectations have been adjusted, with Standard Chartered lowering its 2026 Bitcoin target from $300,000 to $150,000. The rebound will rely more on actual capital inflows rather than momentum chasing.

Additionally, the proposed rules released on December 16 pave the way for state bank subsidiaries to issue "payment stablecoins," requiring a 1:1 reserve as support and prohibiting arbitrary re-pledging.

However, this rule needs to undergo a 60-day consultation period and may not be implemented until the end of 2026, with significant scale only forming in 2027, having no substantial impact on Q1.

Nonetheless, its long-term value is significant. Compliant stablecoins issued by banks could become settlement assets for ETF market makers, deepening liquidity in the derivatives market and establishing public chains as a trusted settlement layer for institutions.

Thus, the Q1 market becomes a mathematical formula: how many customers at Vanguard will add a 1%-2% Bitcoin position, and how much capital inflow can Bank of America channels bring?

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。