Event Background
● In 2023, U.S. regulatory agencies imposed strict restrictions on banks' investments in crypto assets due to a series of market crashes and financial fraud incidents.
● This policy shift coincides with a recovery in the global crypto market, as regulatory agencies in various countries adjust their positions, claiming to seek greater space for innovation.
● The change in regulatory attitudes towards the crypto market may stem from industry lobbying and signals of market recovery, prompting them to reassess relevant policies.
Impact of Federal Reserve Policy Reversal and SEC Guidance
Specific Analysis of the Federal Reserve's Policy Reversal
● The Federal Reserve's reversal marks a gradual relaxation of regulatory attitudes towards crypto assets, eliminating policy barriers for banks to participate in crypto business.
● This policy shift will promote banks to expand services related to cryptocurrencies, with opportunities to attract more customers into this emerging field.
● Although the Federal Reserve's statement emphasizes promoting "responsible financial innovation," the market remains vigilant about potential financial risks.
Significance of SEC's Custody Guidance
● The SEC's statement provides a compliance framework for brokers to custody crypto asset securities, aiming to address previous compliance pain points.
● Brokers, upon meeting effective compliance conditions, can be regarded as having "actual holding" rights over crypto asset securities, enhancing their appeal to investors.
● With further clarification of regulations, more institutions may invest resources to develop and offer financial products and services related to crypto assets.
Historical Comparison and Market Outlook
Regulatory Background of the Crypto Market in 2023
● The tightening of financial regulation in 2023, triggered by events such as the FTX collapse, severely undermined investor confidence in the crypto market.
● The response policies at that time aimed to prevent potential risks such as money laundering and fraud, leading banks to be highly cautious in investing in such assets.
Market Trend Predictions After Current Policy Adjustments
● With the relaxation of the regulatory environment, it may attract more whales to re-enter the market, boosting overall market liquidity.
● However, historical lessons remind us that behind regulatory relaxation, we must be wary of potential market volatility and financial risks, especially those that small investors may face.
Risk Assessment and Investor Confidence
Potential Risks of Regulatory Relaxation
● The policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve and SEC, while bringing hope to the market, still require attention to the high volatility characteristics of the crypto market.
● Short-term speculative behavior that may be triggered by regulatory relaxation could impact the market, increasing price uncertainty.
Changes in Investor Sentiment and Market Response
● The current policy changes may evoke a "fear of missing out (FOMO)" sentiment, prompting funds to flow into crypto assets.
● With reports of whales facing losses and market volatility, investor confidence in the potential market recovery may also fluctuate.
In this wave of policy change, both banks and investors face new opportunities and challenges. The decisions made by the Federal Reserve and SEC undoubtedly revitalize the crypto market, but at the same time, the shadows of history remind us not to overlook potential risks and uncertainties. In this game of balancing financial innovation and regulation, how the future market trends will develop is worthy of deep reflection and attention from all participants.
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