Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
In the past two weeks, Strategy has once again increased its Bitcoin holdings with astonishing strength: the weekly increase exceeded 10,000 coins, valued at over $900 million.
As a well-known long-term holder in the market, Strategy has not sold off as the market feared amid the continuous decline in Bitcoin prices and its own mNAV falling below 1. Instead, it has provided a completely opposite answer—steadfastly buying. As of now, Strategy has accumulated approximately 671,000 Bitcoins, with a total value exceeding $50 billion, continuously solidifying its position as one of the largest Bitcoin holding institutions globally.
This action has also triggered deeper market reflections: how much Bitcoin is truly available for trading in the market under such large-scale continuous purchases?
The theoretical limit of Bitcoin is indeed 21 million coins, but the actual circulating supply is far less. Currently, about 19.96 million coins have been mined, accounting for 95% of the total, with only about 1.04 million coins yet to be produced. The current block reward is 3.125 BTC, with an average daily addition of about 450 coins, and it will halve again in 2028. At this rate, the last Bitcoin is expected to be mined around 2140.
However, what truly determines market supply is not the unmined new coins, but the liquid portion of the existing supply.
Statistics show that over 30% of Bitcoins have not moved for a long time and are considered "sleeping holdings"; another approximately 20% are suspected to be permanently lost. Additionally, the proportion of institutional and public holdings, including listed companies, ETFs, and national funds, continues to rise, with most of these BTC exiting high-frequency circulation. Furthermore, the Bitcoin inventory on exchanges has dropped to a multi-year low, indicating that the "floating supply" available for immediate sale is rapidly shrinking. Amid the quiet accumulation by whales and the reluctance of long-term holders to sell, market liquidity is facing structural tightening.
Regarding the true circulating supply of Bitcoin, crypto analyst Murphy conducted a systematic review. Odaily Planet Daily further integrated data and viewpoints based on this, attempting to present the complete picture behind this scarcity narrative—when buying power continues while available supply shrinks, the market landscape may be quietly changing.
The "Institutional Hoarding" of Long-Term Holders is Taking Over Circulating Chips
Long-term holders have now become the most important structural force in the Bitcoin market. According to Glassnode statistics, this group collectively holds about 14.35 million BTC, accounting for over 70% of the circulating supply.
Breaking it down further, there are currently 153 companies holding BTC with a "non-zero balance," among which the core consists of 29 listed companies that collectively hold 1.082 million Bitcoins (with Other holding 54,331 coins). Among these 29 listed companies, Strategy alone holds 671,000 BTC, accounting for a staggering 62%.
If we also consider the URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) data, the dense buying range of Strategy coincides with the area where BTC chips are most concentrated, roughly between $80,000 and $118,000. This means that in the significant turnover at high price ranges, Strategy has indeed played an important role. This is also why MSTR and ETFs are considered the driving forces of this bull market cycle.
It is worth noting that on October 6, the number of companies holding "non-zero balance BTC" was only 67, but with the deep correction of BTC, this number suddenly surged to 153. Does this mean that new enterprise-level players are quietly entering the market during the price decline? 
In addition to the BTC reserves of physical enterprises, as of now, spot Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately 1.311 million BTC. The top three are: BlackRock with about 777,000 coins, Fidelity with about 202,000 coins, and Grayscale with about 167,000 coins.
Moreover, the total amount of Bitcoin held by governments is approximately 615,000 coins. The U.S. government ranks first with 325,000 coins, while the second is the Chinese government, holding about 190,000 BTC. It should be noted that the Chinese government has never officially disclosed related holdings, and this data mainly comes from Glassnode, whose statistical criteria may differ from the actual situation.
Additionally, the number of Bitcoins that have not moved for over 10 years is about 3.409 million coins. This portion of assets includes both early exchange cold wallets and true "faith-based OGs"; however, it is also important to note that a significant portion of these may have permanently exited the circulation system due to lost private keys or the death of holders, including approximately 1 million BTC that are widely believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.
How Many of the Mined BTC Are Actually "Unbuyable"?
Murphy subsequently provided a more detailed analysis of this data. Unlike traditional bank accounts that have a "forgot password recovery" feature, Bitcoin relies entirely on private keys to prove ownership. Once a private key is lost or inaccessible, the corresponding Bitcoin becomes permanently immovable or unspendable; although they are still recorded on the blockchain, they are economically equivalent to being permanently destroyed.
If we break down the circulating supply by date range, where each date range refers to the creation date of UTXOs, we can see that the peak accumulation of BTC born from 2010-2014 occurred in December 2014, after which it rapidly declined (being spent); since January 2019, there has been almost no significant change.
These ancient BTC that remain today, aside from those held by absolute believers, have likely lost a significant portion. According to Murphy's estimates, this proportion is at least over 50%, meaning at least 1.06 million coins.
There is also a group of "supreme kings" whose UTXOs were created in 2009. They have hardly moved since December 2011, and to this day, this address group holds 1.08 million BTC.
In other words, at least about 2.14 million BTC may have effectively become permanently immovable.
The Truly Liquid Supply
If we look at the exchange balances, the most direct indicator, there are currently about 2.49 million BTC held in exchange wallets, and this trend is continuously declining, reaching a new low since 2023.
This means that while the demand side is continuously becoming "institutionalized," the supply side is continuously shrinking, and the pool of Bitcoin available for trading is becoming increasingly smaller.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
