Original Title: Outlook 2026 The Year Utility Wins
Original Source: CoinShares
Original Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow
At the end of the year, various institutions have released their annual review and outlook reports.
Adhering to the principle of not reading too long, we also attempt to quickly summarize and distill the long reports from various sources.
This report comes from CoinShares, a leading digital asset investment management company in Europe, established in 2014, headquartered in London, UK, and Paris, France, managing assets exceeding $6 billion.
This 77-page report titled "Outlook 2026: The Year Utility Wins" covers core topics such as macroeconomic fundamentals, the mainstreaming of Bitcoin, the rise of hybrid finance, competition among smart contract platforms, and the evolution of regulatory landscapes, along with in-depth analysis of subfields like stablecoins, tokenized assets, prediction markets, mining transformation, and venture capital.
Here is our distillation and summary of the core content of this report:
1. Core Theme: The Arrival of the Year of Utility
2025 is a turning point for the digital asset industry, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high, and the industry shifting from speculation-driven to utility-value-driven.
2026 is expected to be the "Year of Utility Wins," where digital assets no longer attempt to replace the traditional financial system but rather enhance and modernize the existing systems.
The core argument of the report is that 2025 marks a decisive shift of digital assets from speculation-driven to utility-value-driven, and 2026 will be a key year for accelerating this transformation.
Digital assets are no longer trying to establish a parallel financial system but are enhancing and modernizing the existing traditional financial systems. The integration of public blockchains, institutional liquidity, regulatory market structures, and real economic use cases is advancing at a pace that exceeds optimistic expectations.
2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Market Outlook
Economic Environment: A Soft Landing on Thin Ice
Growth Expectations: The economy may avoid recession in 2026, but growth is weak and fragile. Inflation continues to ease but not decisively, with tariff disruptions and supply chain restructuring keeping core inflation at levels not seen since the early 1990s.
Federal Reserve Policy: A cautious rate cut is expected, with the target rate possibly dropping to the mid-3% range, but the process will be slow. The Federal Reserve is still wary of the inflation surge in 2022 and is reluctant to pivot quickly.
Three Scenario Analyses:
· Optimistic Scenario: Soft landing + productivity surprise, Bitcoin could break $150,000
· Benchmark Scenario: Slow expansion, Bitcoin trading range of $110,000 to $140,000
· Bear Market Scenario: Recession or stagflation, Bitcoin could drop to the $70,000 to $100,000 range
Slow Erosion of the Dollar's Reserve Status
The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 70% in 2000 to the mid-50% range currently. Emerging market central banks are diversifying their allocations, increasing holdings in assets like the renminbi and gold. This creates structural advantages for Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value.
3. The Mainstreaming of Bitcoin in the United States
In 2025, the U.S. achieved several key breakthroughs, including:
· Approval and launch of spot ETFs
· Formation of a top ETF options market
· Lifting of restrictions on retirement plans
· Application of fair value accounting rules for corporations
· The U.S. government designating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve
Institutional Adoption Still in Early Stages
Despite the removal of structural barriers, actual adoption is still limited by traditional financial processes and intermediaries. Wealth management channels, retirement plan providers, and corporate compliance teams are gradually adapting.
Expectations for 2026
The private sector is expected to make key progress: the four major brokerages will open Bitcoin ETF allocations, at least one major 401(k) provider will allow Bitcoin allocations, at least two S&P 500 companies will hold Bitcoin, and at least two major custodial banks will offer direct custody services.
4. Risks of Holding Bitcoin for Miners and Corporations
Surge in Corporate Bitcoin Holdings
From 2024 to 2025, the Bitcoin holdings of publicly traded companies increased from 266,000 to 1,048,000, with a total value rising from $11.7 billion to $90.7 billion. MicroStrategy (MSTR) accounts for 61%, with the top 10 companies controlling 84%.
Potential Sell-off Risks
MicroStrategy faces two major risks:
· Inability to fund perpetual debt and cash flow obligations (annual cash flow of nearly $680 million)
· Refinancing risk (the most recent maturing bonds are due in September 2028)
If mNAV approaches 1x or cannot refinance at zero interest rates, it may be forced to sell Bitcoin, triggering a vicious cycle.
Options Market and Decreasing Volatility
The development of the IBIT options market has reduced Bitcoin volatility, which is a sign of maturation. However, decreasing volatility may weaken demand for convertible bonds, affecting corporate purchasing power. A turning point in volatility decline was observed in the spring of 2025.
5. Divergence in Regulatory Landscape
EU: Clarity of MiCA
The EU has the most comprehensive legal framework for crypto assets globally, covering issuance, custody, trading, and stablecoins. However, 2025 exposed coordination limitations, and some national regulators may challenge cross-border passports.
U.S.: Innovation and Fragmentation
The U.S. has regained momentum with the deepest capital markets and a mature venture capital ecosystem, but regulation remains fragmented across multiple agencies, including the SEC, CFTC, and the Federal Reserve. Stablecoin legislation (GENIUS Act) has been passed, but implementation is still ongoing.
Asia: Moving Towards Prudent Regulation
Regions like Hong Kong and Japan are advancing Basel III crypto capital and liquidity requirements, while Singapore maintains a risk-based licensing system. Asia is forming a more coherent regulatory group, converging around risk-based standards and bank alignment.
Rise of Hybrid Finance
Infrastructure and Settlement Layer
Stablecoins: The market size exceeds $300 billion, with Ethereum holding the largest share and Solana growing the fastest. The GENIUS Act requires compliant issuers to hold U.S. Treasury reserves, creating new demand for Treasuries.
Decentralized Exchanges: Monthly trading volume exceeds $600 billion, with Solana processing $40 billion in daily trading volume.
Tokenization of Real-World Assets (RWA)
The total value of tokenized assets increased from $15 billion at the beginning of 2025 to $35 billion. Private credit and tokenization of U.S. Treasuries are growing the fastest, with gold tokens exceeding $1.3 billion. BlackRock's BUIDL fund has significantly expanded its assets, and JPMorgan has launched JPMD tokenized deposits on Base.
Revenue-Generating On-Chain Applications
An increasing number of protocols are generating hundreds of millions in annual revenue and distributing it to token holders. Hyperliquid uses 99% of its revenue for daily token buybacks, and Uniswap and Lido have also launched similar mechanisms. This marks a shift of tokens from purely speculative assets to equity-like assets.
7. Dominance of Stablecoins and Corporate Adoption
Market Concentration
Tether (USDT) accounts for 60% of the stablecoin market, while Circle (USDC) holds 25%. New entrants like PayPal's PYUSD face challenges from network effects, making it difficult to disrupt the duopoly.
Expectations for Corporate Adoption in 2026
Payment Processors: Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and others have structural advantages and can shift to stablecoin settlements without changing the front-end experience.
Banks: JPMorgan's JPM Coin has demonstrated potential, with Siemens reporting forex savings of up to 50%, and settlement times reduced from days to seconds.
E-commerce Platforms: Shopify has accepted USDC for checkout, and markets in Asia and Latin America are piloting stablecoin supplier payments.
Impact on Revenue
Stablecoin issuers face risks from declining interest rates: if the Federal Reserve rate drops to 3%, they would need to issue an additional $88.7 billion in stablecoins to maintain current interest income.
8. Analyzing the Competitive Landscape of Trading Platforms Using Porter's Five Forces Model
Existing Competitors: Competition is intense and escalating, with fee rates dropping to low single-digit basis points.
Threat of New Entrants: Traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley E*TRADE and Charles Schwab are preparing to enter but will rely on partners in the short term.
Supplier Bargaining Power: Stablecoin issuers (like Circle) enhance control through the Arc mainnet. The revenue-sharing agreement between Coinbase and Circle for USDC is crucial.
Customer Bargaining Power: Institutional clients account for over 80% of Coinbase's trading volume, giving them strong bargaining power. Retail users are price-sensitive.
Threat of Substitutes: Decentralized trading platforms like Hyperliquid, prediction markets like Polymarket, and CME crypto derivatives pose competition.
It is expected that in 2026, industry consolidation will accelerate, with trading platforms and large banks acquiring customers, licenses, and infrastructure through mergers and acquisitions.
9. Competition Among Smart Contract Platforms
Ethereum: From Sandbox to Institutional Infrastructure
Ethereum is achieving scalability through its Rollup-centric roadmap, with Layer-2 throughput increasing from 200 TPS a year ago to 4,800 TPS. Validators are pushing to raise the base layer Gas limit. The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF has attracted approximately $13 billion in inflows.
In terms of institutional tokenization, BlackRock's BUIDL fund and JPMorgan's JPMD demonstrate Ethereum's potential as an institutional-grade platform.
Solana: High-Performance Paradigm
Solana stands out with its highly optimized execution environment, capturing about 7% of the total DeFi TVL. The supply of stablecoins exceeds $12 billion (growing from $1.8 billion in January 2024), with RWA projects expanding; BlackRock's BUIDL grew from $25 million in September to $250 million.
Technological upgrades include the Firedancer client and the DoubleZero validator communication network. The spot ETF launched on October 28 has attracted $382 million in net inflows.
Other High-Performance Chains
Next-generation Layer-1s like Sui, Aptos, Sei, Monad, and Hyperliquid compete through architectural differentiation. Hyperliquid focuses on derivatives trading, accounting for over one-third of total blockchain revenue. However, the market is highly fragmented, and EVM compatibility has become a competitive advantage.
10. Mining Transformation to HPC (High-Performance Computing Centers)
2025 Expansion
Publicly traded miners' hash rate grew by 110 EH/s, primarily from Bitdeer, HIVE Digital, and Iris Energy.
HPC Transformation
Miners announced HPC contracts valued at $65 billion, with Bitcoin mining revenue expected to drop from 85% to below 20% by the end of 2026. HPC business operating margins reach 80-90%.
Future Mining Models
Future mining is expected to be dominated by the following models: ASIC manufacturers, modular mining, intermittent mining (coexisting with HPC), and sovereign nation mining. In the long term, mining may return to small-scale decentralized operations.
11. Venture Capital Trends
2025 Recovery
Crypto venture capital financing reached $18.8 billion, surpassing the total for 2024 ($16.5 billion). This was primarily driven by large transactions: Polymarket received a $2 billion strategic investment (from ICE), Stripe's Tempo secured $500 million, and Kalshi raised $300 million.
Four Trends for 2026
RWA Tokenization: Securitize's SPAC and Agora's $50 million Series A show institutional interest.
AI and Crypto Integration: Applications like AI agents and natural language trading interfaces are accelerating.
Retail Investment Platforms: Decentralized angel investment platforms like Echo (acquired by Coinbase for $375 million) and Legion are emerging.
Bitcoin Infrastructure: Layer-2 and Lightning Network-related projects are gaining attention.
12. The Rise of Prediction Markets
Polymarket's weekly trading volume exceeded $800 million during the 2024 U.S. elections, with post-election activity remaining strong. Its prediction accuracy has been validated: events with a 60% probability occurred about 60% of the time, and events with an 80% probability occurred about 77-82% of the time.
In October 2025, ICE made a strategic investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, marking recognition from mainstream financial institutions. Weekly trading volume is expected to potentially exceed $2 billion in 2026.
13. Key Conclusions
Acceleration of Maturation: Digital assets are shifting from speculation-driven to utility-value and cash flow-driven, with tokens increasingly resembling equity assets.
Rise of Hybrid Finance: The integration of public blockchains with traditional financial systems is no longer theoretical but is becoming visible through strong growth in stablecoins, tokenized assets, and on-chain applications.
Increased Regulatory Clarity: The U.S. GENIUS Act, EU MiCA, and Asia's prudent regulatory frameworks lay the groundwork for institutional adoption.
Gradual Institutional Adoption: Although structural barriers have been removed, actual adoption will take years, and 2026 will be a year of incremental progress for the private sector.
Reshaping of Competitive Landscape: Ethereum remains dominant but faces challenges from high-performance chains like Solana, with EVM compatibility becoming a key advantage.
Risks and Opportunities Coexist: High concentration of corporate holdings poses sell-off risks, but emerging fields like institutional tokenization, stablecoin adoption, and prediction markets offer significant growth potential.
Overall, 2026 will be a key year for digital assets to move from the margins to the mainstream, from speculation to utility, and from fragmentation to consolidation.
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