Is the Meme season making a comeback? This discussion is not unfounded. After entering December, the market has shown three significant signals that are enough to bring this sector, which has been ridiculed by many and relied upon by countless others, back into the spotlight.
Meme's unexpected performance once again leads the pack.
As BTC slightly rebounds and mainstream altcoins remain hesitant, some faint yet clear sparks have begun to ignite from the edges.
Data from CoinGecko shows that in the past seven days, the top-performing sectors include the Pump.fun ecosystem and the Solana Meme sector, both of which have entered the top three, with the Pump.fun ecosystem rising over 9%.
More importantly, some Memes started to gain traction even before the overall altcoin rebound. For instance, coins like TURBO, PIPPIN, and SPX began to show unusual activity at the end of November, indicating that Memes have once again become the first direction for capital to test.
In the past cycle, Solana has been the most explosive breeding ground for Memes. Even though the trading volume of Memes on the Solana chain has noticeably cooled recently, the industry's attention towards it has not substantially decreased.
This means that when mainstream assets experience narrowed volatility and narratives stagnate, volatility itself becomes an attraction, and Memes possess the most extreme volatility in the entire crypto market.
In a sense, Memes can be considered an "early indicator" of market sentiment.
Meme market cap ratio signals a bottoming out.
The second signal comes from CryptoQuant's on-chain structural indicators. Data shows that over the past two months, the Meme market cap ratio (the proportion of Meme in the total altcoin market cap) has remained flat. This flatness is not due to a lack of upward movement but rather a consolidation after selling pressure has exhausted. Trading volume continues to decline, but the ratio no longer falls, indicating that fewer and fewer people in the market are willing to sell Memes.
This trend has been observed in almost every previous crypto cycle. During the worst sentiment, the Meme market cap ratio quickly declines; when selling pressure is exhausted, the ratio enters a prolonged "bottoming state."
In fact, the Meme market cap ratio is a very pure on-chain liquidity signal. If the Meme market cap ratio continues to decline, it indicates that the capital willing to take on risk is decreasing; if the Meme market cap ratio stabilizes or even slightly increases, it represents a recovery in risk appetite.
The current flatness precisely indicates that the latter is happening, almost identical to what occurred in Q3 of 2024.
At that time, the Meme market cap ratio remained flat at a relatively low level for nearly three months, during which almost no one discussed Memes, and all capital focused on BTC support and mainstream altcoin recovery. The results are well-known: after Q3, Memes became one of the strongest rebounding sectors in the entire market, with the Solana Meme market cap even experiencing more than a threefold expansion.
This means that as long as there is a catalyst in the future, even a small one, the price direction will be rapidly amplified in a very short time. The inherent high elasticity of Memes will make this change even more dramatic.
RSI should not be overlooked.
The third signal comes from technical analysis. Taking the daily RSI of the Meme market cap as an example, a clear bullish divergence has emerged: the market cap has reached a new low, while the RSI has created a higher low, which is a typical structural reversal signal.
Many people think that Memes are merely speculative, but in reality, in structural indicators, the trend reversals of Memes are often more decisive than the overall market. Because once selling pressure eases, sentiment will quickly rebound, and technical indicators often provide early warnings.
The RSI divergence cannot predict market trends on its own, but combined with the market performance and market cap ratio trends discussed in the report, it becomes an essential component that cannot be ignored. At the very least, it indicates that selling pressure is decreasing, while the bulls have not yet truly begun.
The market may be waiting for a trigger point.
Overall, the three major signals point to one conclusion: December's Meme season may not necessarily explode, but it is "preparing to explode."
The market has not welcomed a true incremental narrative, mainstream projects lack strong catalysts, and on-chain trading volume remains low. During this structural vacuum period, capital typically seeks two outlets: one is a certain faith asset (like BTC), and the other is a high-volatility asset with explosive potential (like Memes).
However, it is important to emphasize that the volatility of Memes is two-way; they can rise 50% in a day and fall 80% in an hour. If Memes are included in an investment portfolio, strict position control is necessary, and one must accept their nature of being driven purely by emotion rather than narrative.
From an industry perspective, Memes have clearly become the most authentic emotional reflection of the crypto market. In the coming weeks, if BTC stabilizes and continues to release volatility, then Memes are likely to become the first spark to ignite the market; conversely, if the market remains dull, Memes may also break the calm in a more intense manner.
In December, the Meme season may indeed be making a comeback.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) has added $732 billion in capital in this cycle, leading to a shift in market structure.
Original article: “Is the Meme Season Returning? Three Major Signals Indicate a Potential Crypto Market Surge in December”
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