Strategy is the largest publicly traded company holding Bitcoin, with approximately 650,000 Bitcoins on its balance sheet.
The company's model relies on raising capital and converting it into Bitcoin while maintaining a market value to Bitcoin value ratio (mNAV) above 1.
CEO Phong Le describes any sale of Bitcoin as a "last resort," to be considered only when mNAV falls below 1 and the ability to raise new capital significantly deteriorates.
Even if Strategy chooses to sell part of its holdings, the daily trading volume in the Bitcoin market reaches tens of billions of dollars, making any sale more likely to be targeted rather than a complete exit.
Strategy, which has transformed itself over the past five years into what it calls "the world's first and largest Bitcoin treasury company," was formerly known as MicroStrategy.
As of early December 2025, it holds nearly 650,000 Bitcoins, accounting for over 3% of the total supply of 21 million, making it the largest holding by a publicly traded company to date.
For many traditional investors, Strategy's stock has become a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. Instead of directly purchasing Bitcoin, they opt for this stock because the company raises capital and converts it into Bitcoin.
The current debate stems from CEO Phong Le's recent statements: under very specific conditions, the company may sell Bitcoin. Media headlines often focus on the word "sell," but the company positions it as risk management in response to extreme pressure, rather than a shift in its long-term Bitcoin philosophy.
This article explains how the plan works and what factors might trigger a sale, helping readers interpret subsequent news without panic or fear of missing out (FOMO). This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Did you know? Recent estimates show that institutions now hold nearly 20% of all mined Bitcoins.
From an operational perspective, Strategy runs a relatively simple financial loop. The company:
Raises capital in traditional markets through common stock at market price, multiple series of perpetual preferred stock (such as STRK and STRF), and occasional convertible debt.
Uses a significant amount of capital to purchase more Bitcoin, viewing it as a primary treasury reserve asset.
Tracks a set of metrics to assess whether this model is sustainable and adds value for shareholders.
Two of these metrics are relevant to this article:
Bitcoin per Share (BPS): How many Bitcoins correspond to each share on a fully diluted basis. Strategy publishes this as a key performance indicator.
Market Value to Net Asset Value Ratio (nNAV): The ratio of Strategy's total market value to the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. If mNAV is above 1, the stock is trading at a premium relative to its Bitcoin.
When the company trades at a healthy premium, it can issue new common or preferred stock with less dilution and continue to expand its Bitcoin holdings. This basic scenario—where Strategy raises capital at a premium, buys more Bitcoin, and increases BPS—is still the model management claims is being pursued.
A new element is the clearly defined termination switch for this model.
In a recent interview, Le explained that Strategy would only consider selling some Bitcoin if two conditions are met simultaneously:
mNAV falls below 1, meaning the company's market value drops to or below the value of its held Bitcoins.
New capital acquisition is exhausted— for example, investors are no longer willing to buy its equity or preferred stock on feasible terms.
He described selling Bitcoin in this scenario as a "last choice" tool option to meet obligations like preferred stock dividends, rather than a regular plan to sell reserves.
In simple terms:
If the stock price is equivalent to or lower than the value of Bitcoin, and the company cannot refinance itself, then selling a portion of Bitcoin becomes the least bad way to protect the overall structure.
Before the "last resort" switch is considered, multiple factors need to align.
Bitcoin has significantly retreated from its historical high of nearly $126,000 in October to the mid-$80,000 range, a drop of about 30%. A deeper or more prolonged pullback would compress the value of Strategy's Bitcoin holdings and often simultaneously pressure its stock price.
Strategy's market value premium has already narrowed after the stock declined 30%-60% from early highs. In mid-November, the company briefly traded at or below the spot value of its holdings, indicating mNAV was close to 1.
The business relies on issuing new common and perpetual preferred stock through existing shelf registrations and at-the-market (ATM) programs. If these issuances significantly slow down or investors demand higher yields, it would indicate pressure on the financing side.
Strategy incurs substantial preferred stock dividend and debt service obligations each year. Analysts estimate preferred stock dividend obligations reach hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
Management still positions itself as a long-term Bitcoin accumulator, and the scenarios described represent a severe pressure environment.
Did you know? On-chain evidence shows that 3 to 4 million Bitcoins are likely permanently lost in dead wallets, meaning a significant portion of the supply will never return to the market.
Given that Strategy holds 650,000 Bitcoins, any shift from "never selling" to "possibly selling under pressure" would naturally attract traders' attention.
However, context is important:
Market size: The daily spot and derivatives trading volume of Bitcoin often reaches tens of billions of dollars. Meanwhile, the daily inflows and outflows of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also often amount to billions. Even a controlled sale of a portion of Strategy's holdings (even if significant) would enter a very large and liquid market.
Possible scale and pace: According to Le himself, any sale under pressure would be targeted and partial, aimed at meeting obligations or maintaining capital structure, rather than exiting Bitcoin.
Pre-pricing: Once such possibilities are disclosed, the market often incorporates them into pricing in advance. The recent pullbacks in Bitcoin and Strategy's stock, along with discussions around mNAV, are examples of this process.
It is important to note that a conditional last-choice sale framework is not the same as announcing that a large-scale Bitcoin sale is imminent.
Did you know? In the third quarter of 2025, the average daily crypto spot trading volume was about $155 billion, with an additional $14 billion in nominal crypto derivatives traded daily on the CME.
For readers who wish to track this matter without being swayed by every headline or meme, the following observable metrics can help clarify the situation:
Start with first-hand sources.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8-Ks and supplemental prospectuses, show new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy's press releases and its "Bitcoin purchase" page summarize recent buys and total holdings.
Focus on core metrics.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings, such as 8-Ks and supplemental prospectuses, show new capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.
Strategy's press releases and its "Bitcoin purchase" page summarize recent buys and total holdings.
Social media activity often reflects sentiment rather than data. "Green dot" posts, laser eyes memes, and doomsday posts can be used to gauge sentiment, but any claims about forced sales or insolvency should be verified against filings and numbers.
Note: Individual financial situations, holding periods, and risk preferences vary. The information in this article is general and should not be interpreted as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Readers may consider consulting qualified financial professionals for guidance tailored to their circumstances.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $93,000 after a pullback on Sunday, with analysts focusing on the $100,000 mark.
Original article: A Simple Breakdown of Strategy's Bitcoin (BTC) Plan and What Could Shape Future Sales
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