"Monad FDV > $4B? The Most Exciting Polymarket Battle of the Year"
The Polymarket is currently experiencing the most intense battle over the rules regarding whether Monad's FDV will exceed $4B one day after its listing.
The core of the controversy stems from this statement:
“The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.”
The question is:
Does “most liquid” refer to depth or trading volume?
Should the final price be taken as Close, Open, High, or Aggregator?
This directly determines:
Coinbase final price < 0.04 → NO
Upbit final price > 0.04 → YES
The market has now entered UMA arbitration. I took a look at the discussions in the UMA Discord, and they are very exciting.
NO side's viewpoint (< $4B):
- CMC's liquidity score: Coinbase > Upbit, so Coinbase should be chosen.
- Even according to Upbit, after converting to USDC, it is still < $4B.
- Polymarket added a small note after the market closed: “At this market's resolution time, Coinbase was the most liquid price source.”
YES side's viewpoint (> $4B):
- Upbit's daily trading volume accounts for over 50% of the entire network, almost double that of Coinbase, so Upbit should be chosen according to the rules.
- The rules are vague: it does not specify whether to take Close, Open, or Aggregator. If using Aggregator, both Coinbase and Upbit are > $4B.
- The rules state USD FDV, which is unrelated to USDC/USDT.
My viewpoint: a very clear Yes.
Upbit's trading volume is far greater than Coinbase, and Coinbase even briefly suspended trading of Monad/USD during the day.
According to the rules, the most liquid source → should take Upbit → FDV > $4B = YES.
The most dramatic part is:
In the UMA Discord and Polymarket comment section, almost all debaters support using Upbit → YES.
Yesterday, some supported NO, but now a large number of NO positions have been preemptively cashed out at 99+ prices, while countless users are frantically buying YES below 1 ——
They express their views with funds.
Even more outrageous is:
Those who bought NO above 99 are all “professional tail-end traders” on Polymarket.
They bet: official clarifications + Coinbase = NO.
But the reality is:
From the rules, from the facts, and from on-chain data, it should be YES.
Now, the real decision-makers are UMA stakers, and UMA's market cap is only $70M.
This means:
A protocol with a market cap of $70 million is to adjudicate a market with a trading volume that could exceed tens of millions.
If you were a UMA whale, what would you do?
The most likely scenario is:
UMA whales buy a bunch of YES <1 → vote YES in DVM → hundredfold returns.
Thus, the conflict becomes:
Rule faction vs tail-end whales → UMA whales vs Polymarket whales.
It's so exciting.
I firmly stand with YES, Rule is rule.
To those still buying NO at 99+ — good luck.
There are 1 day and 10 hours left for the result, detailed reading materials: 👇
- Detailed voting/debate details: https://vote.uma.xyz/
- Polymarket link regarding whether Monad's FDV exceeds $4B one day after launch: https://polymarket.com/event/monad-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch/monad-market-cap-fdv-4b-one-day-after-launch-532?tid=1764167479596
- A well-summarized AI analysis: https://chatgpt.com/share/69268948-f418-8012-9436-6b6766e876ed
- UMA Discord discussion: https://discord.com/channels/718590743446290492/964000735073284127/threads/1442900257951187158
Polymarket #Monad
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