Max pain now defines the pressure shaping bitcoin’s next major inflection as markets absorb intensifying institutional stress today. André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, shared on Nov. 19 on social media platform X that he expects a forthcoming bitcoin bottom between $73K and $84K.
He wrote:
FWIW — Think max max pain is reached the moment we tag either the IBIT cost basis at $84K or MSTR cost basis at $73K. Very likely we’ll see a final bottom somewhere in between. But these will be fire sale prices and akin to a full cycle reset imo.
The levels he referenced correspond to two widely followed institutional anchors: roughly $73,000, which aligns with Strategy’s (Nasdaq: MSTR) average accumulation level, and approximately $84,000, the estimated entry point for Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Dragosch described this corridor as the zone where selling pressure could exhaust shorter-term participants while leaving long-term strategies intact. As of writing, BTC is trading at $83,764.06.
Read more: Saylor Says Bitcoin Has Found Its Floor, Says ‘Most of the Liquidation Selling Is out of the System’
This structure frames the $73,000–$84,000 band as a behavioral pivot where ETF flows and corporate leverage converge. A slide toward IBIT’s threshold could spur redemptions that reduce underlying holdings, while movement near Strategy’s boundary would test balance-sheet tolerance.
His reset framework signals that discomfort must deepen before a resilient reversal materializes. Pro-crypto observers argue that bitcoin’s issuance mechanics, expanding institutional participation and global adoption may cushion additional downside, setting the stage for a stronger recovery once the reset completes.
- What defines bitcoin’s max-pain zone?
The expert identifies the $73K–$84K corridor as bitcoin’s primary stress and potential bottom zone. - Why is Strategy’s $73K cost basis important?
It represents a critical institutional threshold that could pressure corporate balance sheets if tested. - How does IBIT’s $84K level influence market flows?
It marks an ETF entry point where redemptions and selling could intensify as prices near the threshold. - What signals the potential bitcoin reversal?
Converging ETF flows, leverage stress, and market exhaustion may trigger a full-cycle reset and rebound.
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