Key Points:
A Bitwise analyst has marked the range of $84,000 to $73,000 as a potential area for Bitcoin to experience the "maximum pain" capitulation.
The cost basis of BlackRock's IBIT and Strategy's Bitcoin treasury could have a profound impact on liquidity flows.
André Dragosch, the head of research at Bitwise Europe, stated that Bitcoin's "maximum pain" range lies between two key cost bases: BlackRock's IBIT at $84,000 and MicroStrategy at approximately $73,000.
Dragosch believes that the cycle's ultimate bottom is most likely to form between these two levels, describing it as a "fire sale" price representing a complete reset of market positions.
The cost basis of IBIT (BlackRock's spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, ETF) reflects the average price at which the ETF acquires its Bitcoin holdings. As the price approaches this threshold, sentiment often deteriorates, as ETF holders begin to assess whether continued drawdowns warrant redemption.
This dynamic has already manifested: IBIT recorded its worst single-day net outflow of $523 million on Tuesday, pushing the total net outflow of the ETF over the past month to $3.3 billion, accounting for 3.5% of total assets under management (AUM).
Strategy is currently in a more vulnerable position. Its net asset value (NAV) recently fell below 1, indicating that the market's valuation of the company's equity is below the Bitcoin it holds, which historically often signifies tightening liquidity and a decline in risk appetite. If its $73,000 cost basis is tested again, sentiment may come under further pressure and trigger a larger-scale de-risking in the face of deteriorating macro conditions.
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that uncertainty surrounding the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has risen unusually due to the government shutdown delaying the release of key labor data, limiting the Federal Reserve's visibility. Rate cut expectations fell to 41.8% on Thursday, with meeting minutes showing significant divergence among committee members, balancing sticky 3% inflation against the risks of premature easing.
If the Federal Reserve opts not to cut rates, liquidity may still remain constrained—similar to the environment that triggered Bitcoin's sharp decline earlier in November.
Nevertheless, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have reached a new high of $72 billion, aligning with the accumulation patterns seen before each major Bitcoin rally in 2025. In a scenario without rate cuts, analysts expect Bitcoin to trade in the range of $60,000 to $80,000 by year-end, with liquidity remaining cautious until macro uncertainty improves.
Related: Traders Focus on Bitcoin (BTC) Bull-Bear "Tug of War" to Plan Next Moves
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
