A great deal of people seem to have traded their optimism for doom-and-gloom lately, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) from alternative.me has slipped straight into the “extreme fear” zone.

But the mood isn’t universally gloomy, and some argue this crypto cooldown is only a brief detour — with bitcoin’s price expected to climb its way back up from the latest floor.

With that in mind, we’re taking a peek at both sides of the coin to gauge what might lift crypto prices and what could sink bitcoin’s momentum, nudging some buyers into uncomfortable territory.

One theme that has echoed all year across crypto is institutional involvement, with bitcoin’s price propped up by spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries. Both groups have stacked hefty amounts of bitcoin, and that trend could easily roll through the end of 2025 and into early 2026. Many institutions likely see today’s price range as a bargain worth grabbing.

Deregulation and a pullback from enforcement-heavy rulemaking often brighten market moods, and many believe the crypto sector is getting exactly that from the Trump administration. Announcements tied to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) could drop at any time and give BTC another lift. A friendlier SEC, CFTC, and Fed posture could also open new market lanes, pushing BTC’s price higher as a natural byproduct.

This could easily be the “shakeout” before “the final leg up.” Historically, the most powerful stretch of post-halving bull markets shows up 12–18 months after the halving (and we’ve just crossed ~19 months). Sharp mid/late-year dips in 2017 and 2021 were followed by fierce year-end rallies, and many cycle watchers still view this sell-off as the last flush of weak hands before the blow-off top. From their vantage point, the current pullback looks less like a collapse and more like the market catching its breath before the sprint.

Global M2 money supply is climbing again, and the Fed is widely expected to ease if economic data weakens further. Easing, stimulus, and lower rates have historically acted like rocket fuel for bitcoin. The current downturn may be tied to short-lived liquidity tightness that often flips in Q4/Q1. It may also stem from the Fed’s mixed signals heading into the December meeting, with central bank members publicly split on the path forward. Globally, easing has picked up significantly—whether any of that finds its way into bitcoin or the broader debasement trade is the real puzzle.

Bitcoin tapped an all-time high above $126,000 in October. But now, it’s sitting at its most oversold point since the 2022 bear market low, long-term holder selling should be running out of steam, and sentiment gauges (CFGI, funding rates) are flashing full-blown capitulation. These kinds of conditions have shown up before nearly every major rally in bitcoin’s history. Traders who follow cycle behavior note that extreme pessimism often marks the point of maximum opportunity, not maximum risk. If history rhymes, this setup could be laying the groundwork for a sharp upside reversal.

Onchain data shows a hefty wave of old coins being shuffled around in 2025. Whether it’s six-month to 1-year bands, 2–3-year holdings, five-year stashes, or even more than a decade-old digits, dormant wallets have sprung to life. Some may be unloading sizable amounts for the first time this cycle—the same pattern that marked the tops in 2018 and 2022. This supply overhang could put a lid on any rebound and keep price action muted. On the flip side, not all of these revived coins were destined for the sell pile — some were simply consolidated out of quantum-computing anxiety and moved into newer, more modern address formats.

Bitcoin is behaving like a high-beta tech stock again, sliding roughly 9% this week alongside a broader Nasdaq/tech pullback. If the economy slips toward recession or the Fed snaps back into a hawkish posture, bitcoin could tumble another 20–30% into the $70K–$84K range. Other forces could also weigh on the market, including an escalating global trade war, a potential bubble pop in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, and the possibility that easing still won’t be enough to keep the fiat system’s widening fractures from bursting open.

Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 in October 2025 and has been carving out lower highs ever since. Cycle modeling points to either a fizzled fifth wave or a bear market that quietly got underway earlier than most expected, with Q4 traditionally pulling its weight in setups like this. Ongoing momentum fatigue at higher levels often signals a more pronounced pullback. Plus, the current formation echoes earlier rollovers where buyers mistook fading strength for a breather instead of the opening act of a full-blown trend flip.

After a massive run from $35,000 (2024 lows) to more than $100,000 in 2025, plenty of investors are cashing out gains and trimming positions for tax purposes ahead of Dec. 31. This kind of seasonal selling pressure often speeds up corrections as the year wraps up. Funds that rebalance on a strict calendar schedule can add even more sell-side weight as they lock in performance. Some traders also rotate into safer assets during the holidays, further thinning out bitcoin’s bid and liquidity. And with liquidity typically lighter in late Q4, even modest waves of selling can hit the market harder than usual.

Bitcoin has slipped beneath key support zones ($95,000–$100,000), marking its roughest weekly stretch since March 2025, and $84,000 or lower could be viewed as the next major waypoint. A weekly close under $90,000 would cement a full bear market and likely wipe out every gain made in 2025. Once these high-timeframe levels break, downside targets tend to get hit faster than many expect. Structural cracks in momentum could invite even deeper tests if buyers don’t step in soon.

All told, bitcoin’s fate heading into 2026 hinges on which forces win this ongoing tug-of-war — the bullish catalysts lining up for a comeback or the bearish signals quietly tightening their grip. With sentiment scraping the floor, liquidity wobbling, and long-term holders stirring, traders are left parsing mixed clues that could swing either way. Whether this chapter becomes a launchpad or a letdown, the next move will likely reveal just how much strength (or lack thereof) still hides beneath the surface.

• What is causing bitcoin to trade under $100,000?
  Bitcoin slipped below six figures due to mixed macro signals, profit-taking, and bearish momentum hitting key support zones.
• Why do some analysts think bitcoin could recover?
  Cycle behavior, improving liquidity expectations, and extreme fear readings hint at a potential rebound if buyers return.
• What risks could push bitcoin lower from here?
  Old coins moving, recession fears, year-end tax selling, and weak technicals could deepen the pullback.
• How are institutions influencing bitcoin’s outlook?
  Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries continue accumulating bitcoin, which could stabilize prices if demand holds. Lately, ETFs have seen outflows and

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。