Key Points:

ETH holders have returned to profitability, increasing the likelihood of a push towards the $4000 mark.

There is a risk of selling pressure around $3800 for ETH, which could hinder the bulls' progress.

ETH rebounded to $3600 over the weekend, pushing its value above the active realized price, indicating that the average ETH holder is no longer in a loss position. Is this enough to provide sufficient momentum for the bulls to drive ETH prices past the $4000 threshold?

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that ETH prices rebounded strongly by 20% to $3650 on Sunday from a four-month low of $3050 set on November 4.

Analysts point out that this rebound is attributed to Trump's promise of a $2000 tariff rebate and positive expectations regarding the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown. According to Glassnode data, this rebound also successfully pushed ETH prices beyond the current active realized price level of $3545.

ETH holders have generally returned to profitability, providing significant financial breathing room for market participants and releasing strong bullish signals.

Historically, after breaking through this price level, market sentiment typically shifts from "fear" to optimism, alleviating the selling pressure from loss holders and encouraging investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

The chart below shows that when the price briefly dipped below the active realized price in January 2024 and then regained its footing, ETH surged by 89% from $2165, eventually climbing to $4100.

For the bulls, maintaining a position above $3500 is crucial, as it will lay the groundwork for a potential retest of $4000.

Based on the extreme deviation pricing model for ETH, other key support levels for the ETH/USD trading pair are around $2870, $2530, and $1800.

According to the distribution of ETH cost basis data, investors holding approximately 4.2 million ETH have an average cost between $3600 and $3815, which has formed a potential significant resistance zone.

This concentration of holdings suggests that a large number of investors may choose to sell upon reaching their breakeven point, which could hinder ETH's upward momentum.

Market analysts note that ETH must convert the resistance range between $3700 and $3900 into effective support to create conditions for a push above $4000.

"$ETH has failed to reclaim the critical level of $3700 and is currently in a downward channel," cryptocurrency analyst Ted Pillows stated on the X platform on Tuesday, adding:

Michael van de Poppe believes that the ETH/USD trading pair "must break through the $3800-$3900 range" to trigger a breakout towards historical highs.

Meanwhile, analyst Jelle stated that bulls need to "engage more aggressively in the market" to push ETH prices towards $4000.

According to Cointelegraph, BitMine, under Tom Lee, accelerated its ETH asset accumulation strategy last week, adding 110,288 ETH to its $12.5 billion reserve, aiming to hold 5% of the total supply of Ethereum.

Related: BitMine accelerates coin hoarding: purchased 110,000 Ethereum (ETH) last week, a 34% increase from the previous week.

This article does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.

Original article: “Ethereum Holders Back in Profit, ETH Price Gears Up for $4K Breakout”

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