The Microsoft project was built to test how autonomous AI systems behave in complex markets — and the findings were far from confidence-inspiring. The open-source simulation, available on Github, pitted 100 “customer” bots against 300 “business” bots, mirroring real-world commerce.

Buyer agents followed natural prompts like “order dinner,” while business agents used negotiation, persuasion, and even deception to win the deal. Each AI agent was powered by cutting-edge models including OpenAI’s GPT-4o and GPT-5, Google’s Gemini-2.5-Flash, Alibaba’s Qwen3-4b, and the open-source GPTOSS-20b.

Yet when tested, these models stumbled spectacularly. Faced with too many choices — sometimes 100 or more — their “attention space” collapsed. Microsoft’s Ece Kamar noted that the current models got really overwhelmed by having too many options. This led to a “first-proposal bias,” where bots clung to the first offer they saw, granting faster-responding sellers a 10-30x edge and tanking the marketplace’s overall welfare score.

Even more concerning were the agents’ gullibility. Some “sellers” scammed buyers through fake credentials and prompt-injection exploits, rerouting all payments to themselves. GPT-4o and GPTOSS-20b were completely fooled, Qwen3-4b fell for cheap persuasion, and only Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4 held up under pressure. In one simulated market, all the buyers lost their virtual funds to fraudulent sellers.

When collaboration entered the mix, things didn’t improve. Without human guidance, agents failed to coordinate or assign roles effectively, generating market-wide confusion. Only when researchers spoon-fed them detailed instructions did the chaos subside — a clear sign that these models are not inherently ready to collaborate, just yet.

Microsoft concluded that while AI agents have potential as assistants, they remain ill-suited for unsupervised real-world deployment. The simulation showed that left to their own devices, digital agents could crash an economy faster than they could build one.

For those brave enough to peek under the hood, the Magentic Marketplace remains open-source on Github and Azure AI Foundry Labs — a sandbox for exploring just how messy autonomous markets can get before they implode.

• What is Microsoft’s Magentic Marketplace?
  A simulated digital economy built by Microsoft Research to test how AI agents behave in competitive and cooperative market environments.
• Who participated in developing the Magentic Marketplace?
  Microsoft Research collaborated with Arizona State University to build and study the experiment.
• Which AI models were tested in the experiment?
  Agents were powered by models like OpenAI’s GPT-4o and GPT-5, Google’s Gemini-2.5-Flash, Alibaba’s Qwen3-4b, GPTOSS-20b, and Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.
• Where can researchers access the Magentic Marketplace platform?
  The open-source simulation is available on GitHub and Azure AI Foundry Labs.

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