When stablecoins are racing at 2.14 times the speed of Bitcoin, Cathie Wood had to cut $300,000 from her optimistic forecast, reflecting a profound restructuring of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem.
“We had to subtract about $300,000 from our optimistic scenario.” Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, calmly stated this figure during a live broadcast on CNBC, sending ripples through the entire cryptocurrency market.
She lowered her most optimistic target price for Bitcoin in 2030 from $1.5 million to $1.2 million, a revision that effectively wiped out $300,000 in expected value, representing a drop of up to 20%.
1. The Disappearance of $300,000: Key Details of the Expectation Adjustment
The most famous Bitcoin bull leader admitted for the first time that she had to adjust her predictions in response to actual market developments.
● “Given the development of stablecoins, we might subtract about $300,000 from our optimistic view.” Wood candidly explained this adjustment. This $300,000 gap precisely reflects the explosive growth of the stablecoin ecosystem's pressure on Bitcoin's potential value.
● In ARK Invest's report "ARK's Big Ideas 2025" released in February 2025, the company set three scenario forecasts for Bitcoin in 2030. Now, the most optimistic scenario has been lowered from $1.5 million to $1.2 million.
2. The Advance of Stablecoins: The Driving Force Behind the $300,000 Concession
Stablecoins—digital tokens pegged to traditional currencies—are rapidly reshaping the cryptocurrency landscape.
● According to AiCoin data, the market capitalization of stablecoins has reached a historic high of over $306 billion, up from just $21 billion in November 2020.
● This means that over the past five years, the market cap of stablecoins has grown by approximately 1350%, while Bitcoin's increase during the same period was 630%. The growth rate of stablecoins has reached 2.14 times that of Bitcoin—this figure directly explains why Wood had to lower her expectations by $300,000.
● “Emerging markets are crucial in this regard,” Wood pointed out, “We see U.S. institutions starting to lay out new payment channels, and stablecoins are at the core.” This trend is particularly evident in regions plagued by severe hyperinflation.
3. Role Restructuring: Functional Differentiation Behind the $300,000 Gap
ARK Invest previously believed that Bitcoin could serve both as a store of value and for global settlement. But now, Wood sees a different picture.
● “Stablecoins are usurping the role we originally thought Bitcoin would play.” She stated clearly on the CNBC program. This $300,000 expectation gap essentially reflects the professional division of labor that is forming within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
● Wood emphasized that Bitcoin remains a solid asset as “digital gold” and a hedge against fiat currency devaluation. In other words, the $300,000 adjustment does not represent a depreciation of Bitcoin's core value, but rather a natural result of market functional differentiation.
● “I believe the entire space will grow larger,” Wood explained, “This is a truly digital global currency system, without government oversight, very private. So this is a very grand vision.”
4. The Entry of Giants: Catalysts for Accelerated Differentiation
The rapid rise of stablecoins is not only reflected in numbers but also in the strategic layouts of tech giants, further reinforcing the rationale behind the $300,000 expectation adjustment.
● Recently, several major tech companies have begun launching payment platforms that integrate stablecoins. Google partnered with Coinbase and over 60 major institutions to launch an AI payment platform supporting stablecoins in September.
● At the same time, Cloudflare launched NET Dollar, a dollar-backed stablecoin designed for AI agents, used for automated trading.
● These initiatives provide strong backing for the stablecoin ecosystem, further accelerating its scaling process. According to Standard Chartered, by 2028, stablecoins pegged to the dollar could divert over $1 trillion from traditional banking systems in emerging markets.
5. Remaining Value: The Confidence Foundation for the $1.2 Million Target
Despite cutting $300,000 from her expectations, Cathie Wood remains deeply optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects.
● She emphasized that institutional participation in Bitcoin is just beginning, and the potential is still vast. “Bitcoin is a global currency system; it is the leader of a new asset class, and it is also a technology—all of these are integrated.” Wood explained.
● Even after the adjustment, ARK Invest's forecast still implies that Bitcoin has 1100% growth potential over the next five years. With the current Bitcoin price slightly above $100,000, reaching the $1.2 million target would mean an annual growth rate of about 220%.
● Wood pointed out that Bitcoin, as a global currency system, serves a role similar to that of gold as a store of value, but is different from stablecoins—the latter are merely tokenized cash on the blockchain.
6. Market Reality: Opportunities Amidst Volatility
● Just days before Wood's comments, the Bitcoin market had just experienced a round of adjustments. On Monday (November 3), Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time in over four months. The main reason was widespread selling of risk assets.
● As of November 6, Bitcoin's price had returned above $100,000. This price fluctuation reflects the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market but also provides long-term investors with opportunities to position themselves.
● Despite short-term price fluctuations, Wood still views Bitcoin as “digital gold” and a solid asset against fiat currency devaluation. The $300,000 expectation adjustment is more like a professional acknowledgment of market realities rather than a sign of shaken confidence.
The evaporation of the $300,000 expectation marks a key turning point as the cryptocurrency market transitions from youthful recklessness to mature specialization. The 1350% growth rate of stablecoins over five years far exceeds Bitcoin's 630% increase, and this gap is precisely reflected in that $300,000 forecast adjustment.
The future competition in the cryptocurrency market will no longer be a simple confrontation between Bitcoin and other tokens, but a complex process of redefining roles among Bitcoin, stablecoins, and various specialized tokens. That $300,000 gap is the quantification of this process's value.
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
