Hello everyone, I am Lao Lv.
Yesterday, we first proposed the eight-character guideline: Better to have more than none, wait quietly, better to miss than to make mistakes. I wonder if everyone has carefully pondered the meaning of this statement.

Yesterday, a friend in the crypto community asked: "Lao Lv, since you are bullish at 3176, can we short at a higher point and then buy long at a lower point?"
At first glance, this idea seems quite good, but it overlooks an important issue: Lao Lv is a trader, not a trading god!
Just because I say the price will rise doesn't mean it will, and if I say it will fall, it must fall.
Another reason is that Lao Lv's trading strategy itself has a stop loss of only 50 dollars for Ethereum, so it is essential to be precise with the entry point. If this cannot be achieved, there is basically no need to operate.
So, regarding last night's thoughts, I will provide a simple explanation here for everyone's learning and reference.

Looking back at yesterday's market movements, whether for Bitcoin or Ethereum, the biggest rise occurred between four and eight in the morning, while most people were resting, and I was no exception.
If we calculate based on Ethereum's potential rise of 500 dollars, the actual space for increase is only about 200 dollars, so we can only wait for a price correction.
As expected, the evening peak only reached 3479 dollars and 104500 dollars. Even chasing the rise in the evening had no significant appeal.
In the previous three days, we have shorted from the high point of 3700, and now what we need to do is to preserve profits in this environment of long and short tension. This is key, and it is also what sets Lao Lv apart from most traders.
Lao Lv always focuses on the risk-reward ratio, not the trade itself. The value of this statement will continue to rise as traders mature.

Since Ethereum has fallen from 4248 dollars and Bitcoin from 116400 dollars, yesterday's daily line closed with a nice bullish candle. At least, it is the best bullish candle in the past ten days.
The reason is simple: a rebound correction after a significant drop, and it is also a time for the daily line to choose the direction of long or short.
After this rebound, whether it continues to break lower or returns to a bull market, from the current daily bullish candle pattern, there is not enough reason to be bullish or bearish.
Lao Lv is more inclined to view it as a daily level adjustment.
After the price broke down significantly, there should have been quite a few people looking bearish yesterday, but they were harshly educated by the market.
This is the market. We ordinary people, neither relatives of the big players nor having insider information, can only look at the technical aspects.

We have already analyzed Bitcoin and Ethereum yesterday; the hourly level no longer belongs to a very weak downtrend.
A true downtrend would not break the 0.382 weak watershed, which is 101151 and 3257 dollars, but clearly, last night's prices crossed that line.
In such a reversal, we do not have a good high position short strategy, which is the signal Lao Lv proposed last night: Better to have more than none, wait for a pullback to go long.
At the current position, the price has not shown significant volatility, but the overall direction remains unchanged; we continue to wait for a pullback and then go long.
Technically, we can discard the hourly line; this is not like the previous one-sided market. A few days ago, during the one-sided decline, we were almost aggressively shorting every day, but times change, and so do strategies.
Continuing to adjust to the daily and four-hour larger cycle levels, both cryptocurrencies are below the five-day moving average, so if you insist on being bullish, it would be quite forced.
On the other hand, looking at the four-hour chart, with consecutive bullish candles and prices continuously refreshing highs, if you say to continue shorting in the short term, the risk has increased.
This kind of opposing situation is generally defined as "consolidation," which is a deep adjustment at the daily level.

For the current situation, Lao Lv maintains two thoughts as follows:
First, the main theme is still to wait for a pullback to go long. In a consolidating market, chasing trades is most taboo; if the position is not good, it is hard to profit, and in the end, it will all come back, but the process is painful, so chasing trades is basically hopeless.
Second, for shorting, wait for a rebound first. After all, both cryptocurrencies have risen significantly from the bottom, and if the price goes down, there will definitely be support.
In summary, try not to participate in the middle prices in this consolidating pattern, only eat both ends.

In the morning, after both cryptocurrencies refreshed their highs, the hourly line continued to close small bearish candles. Although there was a brief upward surge, the highs still did not refresh, which means: although the price has risen, it does not belong to a very strong uptrend, as there is still a large bearish candle on the daily line pressing down.
So today, it is very likely to wash up and down, first clearing out the retail investors, then waiting for the big players to choose a direction.
Therefore, small investors should focus on survival first; after the big players enter, buy when it rises, and sell when it falls. Let's first live well before thinking about getting rich. If friends ask: Lao Lv, what if the price keeps rising without a pullback? Then continue to look for support by moving down from the highs, just wait, and good opportunities come from waiting.
Pay attention to the support area for Ethereum 3215-3230, and for Bitcoin 100100, the 100,000 dollar mark is also the psychological defense line for most people.

Go long at Bitcoin 100100
Go long near Ethereum 3216

Today: Written by Lao Lv on November 6, 2025, at 14:02
Note: All strategies are effective once and cannot be reused!

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