Event Review 💥
Recently, the ETH market experienced significant volatility, attracting widespread attention. Starting around 13:20, the ETH price underwent a rapid decline and a series of liquidation events in a short period. Multiple reports indicated that not only were large high-leverage orders being liquidated, but also that major whale positions were being significantly closed. This chain reaction caused ETH to briefly drop below the $3500 mark, even reaching a new low for the past three months. Meanwhile, some analysts issued strong sell signals through technical indicators such as OBV, MACD, and KDJ, warning investors about the risks of panic selling.
Timeline ⏰
- 13:20 – ETH reported at $3600.79 on the OKX trading pair, experiencing a 0.61% drop in a short time.
- 13:21 – ETH price around $3605 began to fluctuate violently, plummeting to $3518 within 11 minutes, a decline of 2.41%.
- 13:21 to 13:56 – Under continuous selling pressure, the price gradually fell from $3526 to $3482, with a cumulative drop of about 1.23%.
- 13:24 – The market flash crash became evident, accompanied by large long positions being forcibly liquidated due to high leverage.
- 13:31 – Reports indicated that the total liquidation amount across the network reached $31.83 million within the past hour, with ETH long liquidations amounting to as much as $9.67 million.
- 13:34 – Further reports stated that the cumulative liquidation amount across the network reached $123 million in the past hour, indicating a spread of panic in the market.
- 13:56 – ETH officially fell below the $3500 mark, with the latest price reported at $3500.33, still showing significant short-term declines.
- 13:57 – ETH hit a new three-month low on Bitfinex, with the price dropping to $3497.8, a cumulative decline of 6.07% over 24 hours.
- 14:00 – The latest data showed ETH price slightly stabilizing around $3489, but overall volatility risk remained.
Cause Analysis 🔍
The recent volatility in the ETH market was mainly influenced by two major factors:
- External Macroeconomic and Policy Uncertainty
- Recent uncertainties such as the expectation of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, adjustments in monetary policy, and government shutdowns have led to tighter market liquidity. Risk assets are under pressure overall, and investors are reducing their risk appetite, resulting in liquidity tightening and negatively impacting the cryptocurrency market.
- High Leverage Trading and Liquidation Chain Reaction
- Reports from multiple trading platforms indicated that high-leverage positions were frequently triggered for liquidation. Large holders and whales were forced to close their positions due to losses, creating systemic selling pressure. Panic selling led to a chain of liquidations in the market, further exacerbating the sharp decline in ETH prices.
Technical Analysis 🛠
This technical analysis is based on the 45-minute candlestick chart data of Binance's USDT perpetual contract, with the main technical indicators as follows:
MACD Signal:
The MACD indicator has formed a death cross and is below the zero line, generating a strong sell signal, indicating that the downward momentum remains strong in the short term.Moving Average System:
The ETH price is currently below the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, as well as EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120 moving averages, forming an overall bearish arrangement, confirming a strong downward trend.OBV Indicator:
The OBV line has turned from positive to negative and has broken below previous lows, reflecting a significant increase in selling pressure. Trading volume surged (over 280%), accompanied by price declines, demonstrating typical panic selling behavior.Other Indicators:
The KDJ indicator shows a dispersed state, while the RSI is in the oversold region, suggesting that there may be a short-term rebound opportunity under extreme selling pressure. However, if the overall downward trend does not change, the rebound may also be weak. Additionally, the TD Sequential status indicates that it is currently in a bearish Setup phase, warning of the risk of further price declines.
Market Outlook 🔮
Currently, the ETH price hovers around $3489, and overall market sentiment remains low. From both fundamental and technical perspectives, the market may face the following scenarios:
Short-term Fluctuations and Continued Downward Risk:
In the context of unresolved macroeconomic uncertainties and ongoing high-leverage liquidation pressures, ETH may oscillate repeatedly in a low range in the short term. Although some technical indicators show oversold conditions, large sell orders may still push prices lower.Uncertainty of Market Rebound:
Oversold RSI and doji candlestick patterns signal potential rebound opportunities. If effective support can be found in the bottom region, a brief recovery may occur. However, caution is needed regarding capital outflows and the risk of renewed selling pressure, as rebound momentum may fall short of expectations.Strategic Recommendations:
In the current high-volatility environment, investors are advised to control their positions, set stop-loss orders promptly, and pay attention to macroeconomic and market liquidation dynamics. For short-term traders, closely monitor trading volume, OBV changes, and moving average support levels; while medium to long-term investors should remain cautious and wait for improvements in market sentiment and stabilization of fundamentals before making further allocations.
In summary, the recent sharp fluctuations in ETH reflect both the uncertainties of external macro policies and the systemic risks brought about by high-leverage trading. Technical indicators show that the risk of decline remains, but whether the market bottom can effectively support prices still requires further observation. Investors should remain calm in the storm, avoid short-term volatility risks, and allocate positions reasonably to guard against sudden market situations.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
