Author: Alice Liu, Forbes
Translated by: Felix, PANews
Despite the hype surrounding a potential crypto boom in the "Trump era," Bitcoin's performance has lagged behind nearly all major asset classes. Looking back at Bitcoin's performance from 2025 to date, 2025 can be termed a "lost year."
Since the inauguration of the U.S. President in January, Bitcoin's return has been only about 5.8%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices have both achieved double-digit gains, and even gold, a classic safe-haven asset, has significantly outperformed Bitcoin.
Investors hoping for a boost from the "Trump trade" now face a harsh reality: unfavorable macro conditions, a rotation of funds into AI stocks, and long-term investors taking profits have all limited Bitcoin's upside for most of the year.
_Since Trump's inauguration on January 20: Bitcoin up 5.78%, S&P 500 index up 11.95%, Nasdaq index up 16.17%. Source: _X
$100,000 Resistance Level
The key question everyone is asking is: why can't Bitcoin break through?
In simple terms, $100,000 has become a psychological profit-taking zone. On-chain data shows that whenever Bitcoin breaks this price level, the selling volume from long-term holders significantly increases.
These individuals include early adopters, whales, and long-term staunch supporters who are not panic selling; they are merely reducing risk and reallocating funds to other outperforming areas, such as AI and tech stocks. Each time Bitcoin breaks $100,000, it triggers a wave of selling: this is not panic, but profit-taking.
This creates a structural selling pressure that makes it difficult for Bitcoin's price to maintain new high levels.
Weak Demand and Market Structure
Another reason for the market slump is weak demand. Bitcoin's current trading price is below the cost basis of short-term holders: approximately $106,100 (as of October 30), and it struggles to maintain above $110,000, which can be referred to as the 0.85 support level.
This is significant because, historically, when Bitcoin fails to hold this range, it often signals a larger pullback—potentially down to $97,000, which is where the 0.75 support level lies.
This pattern has been seen for the third time in the current cycle: a strong rebound, followed by exhausted demand, and then long-term consolidation.
In short, the market needs a reset. There is currently no large influx of new capital. Retail sentiment is low. Institutional investors are also cautious. Without new demand, each rebound fades more quickly.
_Currently, publicly listed companies hold over 5% of Bitcoin's total supply, source: _CoinMarketCap
Miners and Macroeconomic Factors
Additionally, miners and macroeconomic factors are exerting dual pressure.
Starting with miners: after the Bitcoin halving, miners' profit margins have been squeezed. Many miners have had to sell part of their holdings to cover operating costs. Coupled with the rise in U.S. real yields earlier this year, miners have shifted from net buyers to net sellers.
However, from a macro perspective, the consumer price index (CPI) in September came in below expectations, providing some relief, mainly due to easing housing inflation.
This creates room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in October and December, and the market has largely priced in this expectation.
If this easing cycle materializes, it could boost risk sentiment by the end of the fourth quarter. But currently, this positive outlook has not translated into strong performance for Bitcoin: liquidity remains tight, and funds are still chasing high-beta AI stocks rather than crypto assets.
Options Frenzy and Market Evolution
A significant structural change this year has occurred in the derivatives space. The open interest in Bitcoin options has reached an all-time high and continues to grow. This is, in fact, a positive sign of market maturation.
This has also changed investor behavior. They are no longer directly selling spot Bitcoin but are using options to hedge risks or bet on volatility.
This alleviates direct selling pressure in the spot market but amplifies short-term volatility. Nowadays, every significant price movement triggers hedging actions from traders, exacerbating intraday price fluctuations.
We are entering a new phase where price movements are more influenced by derivatives positions rather than driven by long-term beliefs. This indicates that Bitcoin has become a fully financialized macro asset.
What Stage is the Current Market in?
Overall, it seems we are in a consolidation phase at the end of a cycle. Long-term holders are reducing risk, miners are selling, short-term buyers are at a loss, and derivatives are dominating.
This combination typically leads to prolonged consolidation before the next real market move occurs. Historically, Bitcoin thrives during cyclical resets—weak hands exit, strong hands rebuild positions, and macro liquidity eventually returns.
We may currently be in a rebuilding phase.
_The crypto market is in a rebuilding phase, source: _CoinMarketCap
The Road Ahead
So what comes next? The $97,000 to $100,000 range will be crucial. If Bitcoin can hold this range during the two Federal Reserve meetings, the outlook for early 2026 looks optimistic—especially if rate cuts and fiscal expansion begin to reignite risk appetite.
However, if this support level is breached, we may see a capitulation-style sell-off before the next rally—similar to the adjustments seen in mid-2019 and 2022.
The key point is: this is not a crash, but a recalibration. Bitcoin's poor performance this year is not due to fundamentals but is a result of fund rotation and the natural volatility of mature asset classes.
Once the macro environment turns favorable again, Bitcoin is likely to regain its status as the preferred high-beta safe-haven asset in the global market.
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