Author: Mask
A currency war without gunpowder is quietly unfolding on the blockchain.
When Kenyan coffee farmers receive USDT payments from German buyers via their mobile phones, when Argentine residents use dollar stablecoins to replace their plummeting local currency savings, and when Hong Kong citizens exchange digital Hong Kong dollar stablecoins at compliant exchanges. Meanwhile, in Beijing's Xidan shopping mall, Ms. Li used the "tap" function of digital renminbi to purchase breakfast offline, all without the need for a network, with funds secured by national credit. — These scenarios reflect a profound transformation of the global monetary system, with stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as the two core forms of digital currency, reshaping the fundamental landscape of financial infrastructure.
These two seemingly similar digital payment tools represent two paths of transformation in the global monetary system: stablecoins led by private institutions and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) issued by sovereign states. They converge in technical form but fundamentally diverge in issuance logic and financial essence.
On August 1, 2025, Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" will officially take effect, marking an important milestone in global stablecoin regulation. At the same time, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, publicly acknowledged the technological value of stablecoins for the first time at the Lujiazui Forum, pointing out that they "reshape the traditional payment system from the ground up." The shift in policy direction indicates that the development of digital currency has entered a new stage.
I. The Dual-Track Evolution of Currency Digitalization
To understand the current transformation of the monetary landscape, it is essential to clarify the fundamental differences between the two core forms of digital currency: stablecoins and central bank digital currencies represent entirely different monetary philosophies and development paths.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies with relatively stable prices, typically issued by private institutions and pegged to fiat currencies or other stable assets. They emerged in 2014 when the Tether company, formed by the cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex, issued USDT pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, initially intended to provide a "safe haven" for the highly volatile cryptocurrency market.
On a technical level, stablecoins enable peer-to-peer transactions based on blockchain technology, allowing for instant transfers through electronic wallets during payments, thus avoiding the cumbersome settlement processes of traditional banking systems. Currently, the global stablecoin market has surpassed $250 billion, with the two major dollar stablecoins, USDT and USDC, accounting for over 90% of the market share.
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), on the other hand, represent a digital extension of national sovereignty. China's digital renminbi (e-CNY), the Bahamas' "sand dollar," and Sweden's e-krona all fall into this category. Unlike stablecoins, CBDCs are 100% backed by national credit, essentially a digital form of M0 (cash in circulation). On the central bank's balance sheet, each unit of digital currency corresponds to an equal amount of central bank liabilities, eliminating default risk.
There are three driving forces behind the emergence of CBDCs: enhancing the efficiency of payment systems, strengthening the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and most importantly — maintaining national financial sovereignty. In the context of the rise of cryptocurrencies and private stablecoins, central banks around the world have had to consolidate their currency issuance rights through technological means.
II. Technical Commonality and Functional Divergence
Although stablecoins and CBDCs have fundamental differences in their issuing entities and value logic, they share remarkable commonality in their technical architecture.
Both are fundamentally based on blockchain or distributed ledger technology. Stablecoins are primarily issued on public chains, ensuring decentralization and anonymity; CBDCs often adopt a consortium chain architecture, balancing efficiency and security within a controllable scope. Taking the digital renminbi as an example, in its "dual-layer operational system," the central bank is responsible for issuance, while commercial banks handle exchange and circulation, maintaining centralized management while utilizing distributed ledgers to enhance efficiency.
In terms of value stabilization mechanisms, the paths of the two diverge significantly. Stablecoins rely on sufficient reserve assets (such as US dollars and US Treasury bonds) and instant arbitrage mechanisms to maintain price stability. Compliant stablecoins like USDC maintain an excess reserve of 102%-105% and ensure transparency through independent audits. However, regulation is still in the process of being perfected, with varying requirements across different jurisdictions. While USDC actively publishes audit reports, Tether (USDT) has long faced scrutiny due to insufficient reserve transparency.
When market prices deviate from the pegged value, authorized participants can engage in arbitrage through minting/burning mechanisms, keeping fluctuations within ±0.3%.
CBDCs, on the other hand, directly inherit the backing of national credit, with their value stability equivalent to physical cash. On the People's Bank of China's balance sheet, each 1 yuan of digital renminbi corresponds to an equal amount of central bank liabilities, possessing unlimited legal tender capacity, fundamentally avoiding price volatility risks. From the outset, they are placed under the full regulatory oversight of the central bank, strictly adhering to anti-money laundering and monetary policy regulations, with controllable anonymity features (privacy protection for small transactions, traceability for large transactions).
In terms of application scenarios, the two have formed a natural division of labor:
Stablecoins: Primarily operate on public chains like Ethereum, relying on network consensus mechanisms. They face risks of de-pegging (such as the collapse of the UST algorithmic stablecoin), reserve asset risks, and vulnerabilities in smart contracts.
They have become a "universal medium of exchange" due to their advantages in cross-border payments. Their annual on-chain settlement total has surpassed $25 trillion, equivalent to the total transactions of traditional card organizations Visa and Mastercard combined. They account for over 90% of DeFi lending, are the preferred settlement tool for NFT and RWA transactions, and connect traditional assets with the blockchain ecosystem.
CBDCs: Adopt a hybrid architecture (such as the "central bank-commercial bank" dual-layer operation of the digital renminbi), supporting dual offline payments, with core risks shifting to privacy protection and financial sovereignty, such as the possibility of disintermediation of commercial banks.
Focusing on domestic retail payment scenarios, they aim to achieve inclusive payment under sovereign control (for example, the digital renminbi has covered utility bill payments in 28 cities in China), with a focus on high-frequency domestic scenarios such as consumer spending and government services, with core goals of enhancing financial inclusion and the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, achieving precise fiscal subsidy distribution and targeted liquidity adjustment.
III. Competition and Symbiosis: The Core Battlefield of the New Currency War
The current global monetary system is undergoing profound restructuring, with a complex relationship of competition and complementarity forming between stablecoins and CBDCs. The core of this "new currency war" is essentially a dual game of monetary dominance and technological routes.
1. The Digital Extension of Dollar Hegemony
Dollar stablecoins have become a new tool to consolidate dollar hegemony. 95% of global stablecoins are dollar stablecoins, far exceeding the dollar's 50% share in global payments. These stablecoins allocate 80% of their reserve funds to US Treasury bonds, making them one of the top 20 holders of US debt.
The "GENIUS Act," passed by the US in June 2025, further requires that stablecoins issued in the US must hold 100% in US dollar cash or ultra-short-term Treasury bonds maturing within 93 days. This policy cleverly transforms stablecoins into vehicles for "digital dollars," compensating for the reduction of non-US sovereign institutions' holdings of US debt while reinforcing the dollar's position through the global circulation of stablecoins.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Basset bluntly stated: "Dollar stablecoins not only expand the use of the dollar but also support the ongoing demand for US Treasury bonds."
2. The Leapfrogging of Renminbi Internationalization
In response to the strong expansion of dollar stablecoins, China has adopted a "dual-track parallel" strategy: on one hand, deepening the pilot of the digital renminbi domestically; on the other hand, actively laying out offshore renminbi stablecoins in Hong Kong, exploring new paths for renminbi internationalization.
Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" will take effect on August 1, 2025, requiring stablecoins to have locally registered issuers, and offshore issuance of Hong Kong dollar stablecoins must apply for a license from the Monetary Authority. This institutional design creates a compliant development space for offshore renminbi stablecoins, and the Shanghai-Hong Kong joint action plan explicitly proposes to build a "global allocation center for renminbi assets," strengthening digital financial cooperation.
The strategic value of developing offshore renminbi stablecoins lies in bypassing the constraints of the SWIFT system while avoiding direct impacts on domestic monetary policy and capital controls. According to IMF data, the dollar's share in global official reserves fell to a historical low of 57.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, providing a time window for renminbi internationalization.
3. Inclusive Finance and Sovereignty Challenges
In emerging markets, stablecoins and CBDCs exhibit a more complex interactive relationship. For residents of high-inflation countries like Argentina and Turkey, dollar stablecoins have become "digital dollar deposits," with a penetration rate exceeding 30%, effectively helping the public avoid the risk of local currency depreciation.
However, this "spontaneous dollarization" also raises concerns about the weakening of monetary sovereignty. When residents and businesses of a country can obtain dollar stablecoins without needing a US bank account, the effectiveness of that country's central bank's monetary policy transmission will be significantly reduced, making capital outflow control more challenging. The Bank for International Settlements warns that stablecoins could become a new variable for global financial stability.
IV. Future Trends: From Competition to Integration
Looking ahead, the development of stablecoins and CBDCs will present four major trends:
1. Compliance as a Prerequisite for Survival
The global regulatory framework is accelerating its improvement. In addition to Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation," the Trump administration actively promoted the "GENIUS Act," and the EU's "Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation" (MiCA) has been implemented. Compliance has become a core element of stablecoin issuance and operation.
The USDC de-pegging crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (which once fell to $0.87) serves as a warning: stablecoins lacking transparent reserve management pose systemic risks. New regulatory requirements focus on three key areas: asset custody, reserve auditing, and redemption guarantees, with leading stablecoin issuers beginning to disclose reserve compositions monthly.
2. Multipolarity Challenges Dollar Hegemony
The dominance of a single dollar is being broken. Hong Kong is promoting the issuance of Hong Kong dollar stablecoins, while Bahrain, Singapore, and other regions are developing local fiat-linked stablecoins, with regional stablecoin solutions accelerating in Southeast Asia and Latin America, creating conditions for the rise of non-dollar stablecoins.
Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) provides new momentum for multipolarity. As of June 2025, the scale of RWA has increased to $24.4 billion, accounting for 10% of the stablecoin market value. Diversified reserve assets such as gold, commodities, and even real estate are becoming the value support for emerging stablecoins.
3. Traditional Financial Institutions Accelerate Entry
After JPMorgan Chase launched the stablecoin JPM Coin, global systemically important banks such as Standard Chartered and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust have begun to establish stablecoin businesses. Bank of New York Mellon has expanded its services for clients to buy/sell stablecoins, marking the deepening integration of traditional finance and crypto assets.
This integration not only changes the form of financial services but also reconstructs profit models. Tether (the issuer of USDT) achieved a profit of $14.3 billion in 2024 with only 150 employees, generating nearly $100 million in profit per employee, attracting traditional financial institutions to accelerate their entry.
4. Technological Integration Gives Rise to New Monetary Tools
The most noteworthy trend is the technological integration of central bank digital currencies and stablecoins. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, has proposed thoughts on the "integrated development of digital renminbi and stablecoins," releasing positive policy signals.
Possible integration paths include: central bank digital currencies accessing public chain ecosystems to enhance cross-border capabilities; compliant stablecoins serving as cross-chain exchange bridges for CBDCs; and even the emergence of "hybrid stablecoins" partially backed by central bank reserves. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has established three departments to manage stablecoins, central bank digital currencies, and deposit tokenization, exploring institutional integration experiences.
Global Restructuring of Monetary Functions:
• Store of Value: Sovereign CBDCs play a core role (backed by national credit)
• Medium of Exchange: Compliant stablecoins dominate cross-border and on-chain scenarios (efficiency advantages)
• Unit of Account: Sovereign currencies remain predominant, but stablecoins may emerge as pricing units in specific areas (such as commodity trade)
V. Conclusion: A Revolution Reshaping Financial Order
Looking back at the history of monetary evolution, from shells to metal coins, from paper money to electronic payments, each transformation in form has been accompanied by a restructuring of power dynamics. The competition and cooperation between stablecoins and central bank digital currencies essentially represent a renewed clash between national sovereignty and market forces in the digital age.
The winners of this transformation have yet to be determined, but the direction is clear: the future monetary system will be an ecosystem of multi-layered and multi-form coexistence, with central bank digital currencies leading the digitalization process of sovereign currencies, while stablecoins become the liquidity bridge connecting traditional finance and the crypto world. The integration of both in areas such as cross-border payments and inclusive finance will continue to deepen.
Hong Kong, as a testing ground for offshore renminbi stablecoins, and Shanghai, as a pioneer of the digital renminbi, are jointly exploring a development path that maintains financial sovereignty while embracing technological innovation. As transaction settlements on the blockchain shorten from days to seconds, and cross-border payment costs drop from 6.35% to nearly zero, the essence of financial services is being redefined.
For ordinary users, the key is to make rational choices based on scenario needs: for daily consumption and small payments, CBDCs should be the first choice for security; for cross-border trade or on-chain investments, regulated and audited stablecoins can be used, but one must always pay attention to the transparency of the issuer's reserves. After all, in the era of digital currency, understanding "whose promise the money is" is more important than worrying about "which wallet the money is in."
The new currency war may be without gunpowder, but it will profoundly change everyone's wallet and the landscape of the world economy. The only certainty is that the wave of currency digitalization will not turn back, and understanding the symbiotic evolution of stablecoins and central bank digital currencies will become the key to grasping the future flow of wealth.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
