The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July reaches 97.4%.
The US and EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, with preliminary results in US-EU trade negotiations.
The White House has released Trump's AI action plan, aimed at consolidating the US's dominant position in the field of artificial intelligence.
Trump: A simple tariff of 15% to 50% will be imposed on most countries.
Technical Analysis:
BTC:
The daily chart remains within an upward channel (blue trend line), currently in a consolidation phase between 116-120K.
Recently, the high-level candlesticks show a combination of small bearish and bullish candles, indicating a typical tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The trading volume has decreased, suggesting a decline in capital participation, which means we are currently in a trial phase controlled by the main players.
No break, no establishment; breaking leads to establishment. The subsequent market trend will focus on whether it breaks out with a medium bullish candle or a long upper shadow bearish candle to determine the market direction.
The daily MA7 and MA14 moving averages overlap, indicating that the potential for adjustment in time and space is minimal, and a breakout signal for either a significant upward or downward movement is imminent. On the 4-hour chart, there were three dips to the MA90 daily moving average in the evening, followed by rebounds, forming three long lower shadow candles, with a morning high followed by a pullback. For intraday operations, key resistance is at the 119.5-120.5K level above, and key support is at the 117.5-116.5K level below.
ETH:
Currently in a high-level adjustment phase after a significant rise, with a rapid previous increase in price and volume. There are now signs of "volume stagnation at high levels + bearish candle adjustments," indicating a potential pullback in the short term.
Yesterday, the daily chart saw a maximum drop of over 200 points, with increased trading volume, showing significant selling pressure at high levels. The daily chart has broken below the 7-day moving average, and today it has formed a small bullish candle, but caution is advised for a potential pullback during US trading hours.
The recent 4-hour chart shows an overall downward trend, currently in a rebound phase after a significant short-term drop, with further rebounds expected during the Asian trading session. For intraday operations, key resistance is at the 3680-3720 level above, and key support is at the 3580-3540 level below.
Altcoins:
Recently (end of the month to the beginning of the next), it is crucial to avoid risks associated with cliff-like token unlocks, as there is a risk of arbitrage selling; at the same time, several mainstream exchanges have seen an increase in net inflows in the past two days, indicating that investors are transferring altcoins to exchanges with the intention to sell.
On-chain data shows anomalies, with a decline in interactive wallets and reduced activity, especially with smaller coins that have seen significant increases recently exhibiting bearish selling behavior. The lifecycle of such wallets indicates non-authentic user activity.
The current strategy for spot trading should remain cautious and on the sidelines; it is essential to endure being in cash, to be bold in holding cash, to be skilled in holding cash, and to be happy in holding cash. Avoid unnecessary trouble; the ultimate goal of trading is to make money. If there are no opportunities, just observe!
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; proceed with caution. This is a personal opinion, not advice, for sharing purposes only.
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