In online discussions, several readers have asked about A-shares.

I didn't expect that such an unpopular topic would still attract readers' interest and curiosity.

My view on A-shares has not changed at all, and I have previously shared my thoughts in detail:

I hope that before the end of this year (December 31), the Shanghai Composite Index can reach 4000 points.

However, merely reaching 4000 points would have very limited impact; it would be best if it could reach 6000 points or even higher.

If it doesn't even reach 4000 points, then let us pray for the blessings of China together.

This expectation is not based on the fundamentals of A-shares.

Looking solely at the fundamentals, the earnings of A-share listed companies in recent years have been truly dismal.

Take the new energy vehicles that we have been proud of in recent years; in a situation where competition is so fierce that there are even rumors of companies facing bankruptcy, how good can the profits be?

As for the liquor industry, which has been hailed as a leading sector in recent years, in the context of shrinking consumption, continuous alcohol bans, and a persistently sluggish market, aside from Moutai, how good can the profits across the entire industry be?

Regarding the bank stocks that have been under pressure this past year, with interest rates continuously dropping, the public burdened with heavy debt, and the real estate industry in dire straits, how good can the actual profits of banks, which rely on interest rate spreads, be?

Since this is not based on fundamentals, what is it based on?

It is entirely based on some urgent need.

Among the three elements of exports, investment, and consumption, our country's development in recent years has largely relied on exports and (mainly government) investment.

In terms of exports, the current situation is becoming increasingly severe, and it is unlikely to be optimistic in the near future.

Regarding investment, the government has called for frugality, and Guangxi has pledged to mobilize all resources in the autonomous region to support Liuzhou. Events like Liuzhou are probably not isolated cases. In this context, future government investment is also unlikely to be optimistic.

As for consumption, there is even less to say; the data on flexible employment in recent years is a mirror reflecting the situation.

This situation has not been just for one or two years; it has persisted since the pandemic.

If this situation is not urgently remedied or at least supported, it is hard to imagine what the future will hold.

Among exports, investment, and consumption, the easiest and most likely to stimulate in the short term is consumption.

Not to mention anything else, just looking at the amount of household deposits, this is a significant sum of money.

This portion of money can theoretically be mobilized, and the most direct way to get it flowing is to establish consumer confidence. To build consumer confidence, the simplest, most straightforward, and most immediate method is to create a wealth effect right away. And in the current national context, there is only one area that can generate a wealth effect:

The stock market.

So, is it possible for the stock market to be boosted?

From both historical and current perspectives, it is possible:

A large amount of household deposits are in banks, which is the material basis.

The Bank of Japan once personally intervened to buy stocks, which is a historical precedent. Although this method is viewed as disgraceful by many, when there are no other options, one can only grit their teeth and proceed.

I am not saying that other countries should adopt Japan's methods; rather, I am saying that if even such measures can be used to boost the stock market, what other methods cannot be employed?

Some readers ask, why use such methods?

Can't we have a slow bull market?

This is like a patient who has suffered a stroke; what needs to be done immediately is to take drastic measures to save the person first, regardless of the method, and then proceed with a systematic and orderly treatment.

If at this time there is still fear of the side effects of drastic measures, leading to delays in rescue efforts, once the person is gone, it will be too late to think of any treatment methods.

And I speculate that this time frame extends to the end of this year. If the stock market is not boosted before this time, I cannot predict what will happen afterward.

However, in recent days, the National Bureau of Statistics released a set of data worth paying attention to, reflecting the situation:

Our country's economic growth in the first half of the year was better than expected; wage levels continue to rise; and more importantly, in terms of consumption, aside from automobiles, consumption growth in other areas has surprisingly outpaced GDP growth.

According to this data, with such strong consumption and pleasing wage increases, the necessity to boost the stock market before the end of the year may not be as great as previously thought. Perhaps allowing the stock market to gradually and orderly rise is indeed part of the national strategy.

In any case, let’s see the results on December 31 of this year.

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