On the evening of July 17, the 178th session of Uweb's live sharing class was broadcast as scheduled, focusing on the theme "Does Ethereum have a chance to create a historical new high recently?" Host Yu Jianing (President of Uweb) engaged in an in-depth dialogue with special guest Schrödinger's Cat (now renamed KT), providing a comprehensive analysis of Ethereum's recent trends, macroeconomic impacts, industry trends, and investment strategies. This article extracts the core viewpoints of the two guests from a media perspective, offering investors a clear insight into market conditions and opportunity outlook.

Ethereum's Strong Rise: Is a Historical New High in Sight?

Recently, Ethereum surged rapidly from a low of $2,000 to $3,400, with a cumulative increase of nearly 10%, just a step away from the previous high of $4,100. During the live broadcast, Cat analyzed the three core logics behind Ethereum's rise: first, favorable macro policies, such as expectations of interest rate cuts in September and the advancement of U.S. cryptocurrency legislation; second, a capital overflow effect, where some funds flowed into high-risk assets like Ethereum after Bitcoin broke through $122,000; third, an improvement in market sentiment, with investors gradually accepting the current price range and recognizing Ethereum's future value more.

However, can Ethereum break through $4,100 and create a historical new high? Cat believes that in the short term, Ethereum may challenge $3,600, but caution is needed regarding the resistance level at $3,468. If the breakthrough fails, a pullback may occur, with $3,000 being a key support level. Yu Jianing added that Ethereum's total market value once approached $1 trillion, and the current price is below the "price-to-book ratio," indicating bottom-fishing potential, but the risk of short-term selling pressure cannot be ignored.

Macroeconomic Environment: Opportunities and Risks Coexist

Is the recent surge in the cryptocurrency market supported by the macroeconomic environment? Cat pointed out that the current market has ample liquidity, with the market capitalization of stablecoins increasing from $170 billion to $270 billion, indicating significant capital inflow. The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has boosted risk appetite, but caution is needed as economic data (such as inflation or retail data) may indicate stagflation risks, which could lead to interest rate cuts being interpreted as "market rescue," triggering a market pullback. Additionally, geopolitical risks (such as the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict) are currently controllable in the short term, but long-term uncertainties remain.

Yu Jianing vividly compared the current market to being in the "eye of the storm," appearing calm but hiding risks. Although Trump's policies have caused short-term disturbances, his strategy of "turning small victories into big victories" has provided the market with relatively stable expectations. However, if unexpected fluctuations occur in the economy or policies, assets like Ethereum may face deep pullbacks.

Is the Altcoin Season Back? Traditional Finance Integration as a New Opportunity

Will Ethereum's rise lead to an "altcoin season"? Cat stated that the traditional logic of altcoin seasons has changed. Currently, funds are more inclined towards Bitcoin and Ethereum, with altcoin rises often being short-term "weekend formulas," and their sustainability is questionable. Some DeFi tokens (like CRV) are performing actively, but the overall altcoin market has not fully regained trust. Investors need to pay attention to weekend capital flows to determine whether they are flowing into non-mainstream assets like Solana and CRV.

Yu Jianing pointed out that a true "altcoin season" may occur within the Web3 ecosystem of Hong Kong and U.S. stocks. Stocks related to RWA (real-world assets), stablecoins, and corporate cryptocurrency purchases frequently see 5 to 10 times increases, and traditional financial institutions (like HSBC) are accelerating their layouts, indicating a deep integration trend between crypto and traditional finance. He suggested that investors shift from a "trading coins" mindset to a "trading stocks" mindset to seize Web3 opportunities in Hong Kong and U.S. stocks.

Long-term Value of Ethereum: Resilience and Potential Coexist

Regarding Ethereum's long-term value, Cat believes its ecological resilience is unquestionable. After experiencing multiple bull and bear cycles, Ethereum remains one of the most recognized public chains in the market due to applications like DeFi, NFTs, and RWA. Although the current price has not returned to historical highs, compared to Bitcoin, it has partially detached from the attributes of a risk asset, and Ethereum still possesses high-risk, high-return characteristics, making it suitable for long-term investors.

Yu Jianing added that Ethereum remains attractive to novice investors, with its market capitalization and ecological stability making it the second choice after Bitcoin. Long-term holding (1-2 years) may yield considerable returns, but caution is needed regarding the continuous decline of the ETH/BTC exchange rate, as the likelihood of a short-term trend reversal is low.

Pullback Risks and Investment Strategies

If a pullback occurs over the weekend, which levels should be monitored? Cat suggested that for Bitcoin, attention should be paid to the support levels of $113,000 and $100,000 - $97,000; if it drops to $97,000, it may be a "golden pit." For Ethereum, the $3,000 support level should be watched, and short-term investors should take a step-by-step approach, while long-term investors can gradually build positions during pullbacks. Yu Jianing emphasized that investment decisions should clarify holding periods; short-term speculation requires caution, while long-term value investing offers better cost-effectiveness.

Additionally, both guests reminded that the rumor of 80,000 Bitcoin being sold has drawn market attention, but current buying pressure is strong, and the short-term impact is limited. Investors should closely monitor policy dynamics (such as the U.S. cryptocurrency legislation) and U.S. stock earnings reports to comprehensively assess market trends.

Future Outlook: Seizing the Dividends of Web3 and Traditional Finance Integration

At the end of the live broadcast, Yu Jianing urged investors to actively participate in Uweb's Hong Kong RWA course (July 31 - August 4), to systematically learn about RWA, stablecoins, and Hong Kong stock investment strategies, and to seize the dividends of Web3 and traditional finance integration. He specifically mentioned that the Hong Kong stablecoin and RWA ecosystem will become a long-term opportunity, and compared to short-term speculation, enhancing systematic understanding and role switching is more crucial. Furthermore, Uweb plans to organize a study tour to the U.S. in August, visiting core institutions like Circle and MicroStrategy, to provide investors with a broader perspective.

Conclusion

The 178th session of Uweb's live class painted a panoramic view of Ethereum and the Web3 market for investors: strong short-term upward momentum, but caution is needed regarding pullback risks; significant long-term value resilience, with the Web3 ecosystem integrating traditional finance holding enormous potential. Whether bottom-fishing Ethereum or positioning in Web3 targets in Hong Kong and U.S. stocks, investors need to abandon the mindset of seeking certainty in uncertainty, combining macro trends with technical analysis to flexibly adjust strategies. The next wave of bull market opportunities is about to arrive; only by enhancing understanding and switching perspectives can one stand out in this "final dance."

Feel free to follow Uweb's upcoming courses and activities for more industry insights and investment opportunities!

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