Key Summary:
Ethereum ETFs continue to see inflows, indicating strong institutional demand.
Exchange ETH supply has dropped to an eight-year low, with "whales" continuously accumulating.
MVRV price range and V-shaped trend suggest ETH may challenge the $4000 to $5000 price level.
Since Ethereum (ETH) rebounded over 100% from a low of $1400 in April to $2800, the price has oscillated in a narrow range of $400 for nearly eight weeks. Despite a lackluster summer market, various data still indicate that ETH prices are expected to challenge $5000 again in 2025.
Whether Ethereum can reach new highs is also driven by the continuous inflow of funds into Ethereum-related investment products, reflecting sustained interest from institutional investors.
According to CoinShares, last week saw a net inflow of $226.4 million into global Ethereum-related investment products. Over the past 11 weeks, these products have averaged a weekly inflow of 1.6% of assets under management, compared to just 0.8% for Bitcoin during the same period.
CoinShares Research Director James Butterfill stated:
According to Farside Investors, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF, represented by BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), saw a net inflow of $148.5 million on Thursday, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $510 million over the past two weeks.
Last week marked the eighth consecutive week of positive inflows for these investment products, with net inflows exceeding 61,000 ETH.
Ethereum Spot ETF flows have remained positive for the 8th consecutive week, with net inflows topping 61,000 $ETH pic.twitter.com/aTANkr4RCy
If this trend continues and pushes ETH back above $2800, prices are expected to reach new historical highs in the second half of 2025.
A key factor supporting bullish sentiment is the continued decrease in exchange supply. On-chain data provider Glassnode shows that the ETH balance on exchanges has dropped to 13.5%, the lowest level in eight years, with the last occurrence of this ratio being in July 2016.
The reduction of Ethereum supply on exchanges may signal an impending price increase driven by "supply shock," which typically occurs when demand rises and supply declines.
Whales typically withdraw ETH from exchanges after buying, indicating they are still accumulating. As the number of coins available for sale decreases, short-term selling pressure also weakens.
In recent weeks, the accelerated accumulation by whales further confirms this trend. More Glassnode data shows that since the end of May, the number of ETH held by wallets with 100,000 or more ETH has continued to increase.
As shown in the chart, the amount of ETH in wallets holding 100,000 or more has risen from 18.1 million on May 21 to 18.8 million this past Monday, indicating that whales have not chosen to sell during the recent price increase.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) data shows that although most ETH holders have realized profits, there has not been a large-scale profit-taking in the market.
SOPR is used to measure whether short-term holders are in profit or loss compared to their initial purchase. A value above 1 indicates a high proportion of coins have realized short-term profits; below 1 indicates that most coins are in a loss state.
Currently, Ethereum's SOPR is 1.01, reflecting strong market confidence, with investors unwilling to sell at a loss. Historically, when SOPR remains above 1 during an upward trend, it usually indicates that prices still have room to rise.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, since May, Ethereum's price has fluctuated roughly between $2400 and $2800.
This range is defined by the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which is used to assess whether an asset is overvalued.
Ethereum's extreme deviation in MVRV indicates that before the unrealized profits held by investors reach the extreme levels corresponding to the two highest MVRV ranges in the chart below (between $4000 and $5000), there is still room for ETH prices to rise further.
Since December 2024, as shown in the chart below, Ethereum's price has formed a V-shaped reversal structure on the weekly chart.
Currently, the ETH price is below the key supply and demand range of $2600 to $2800, which is located at the 100-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). If bulls can push the price above this area, it is expected to further drive the price up to the $4100 neckline, completing the V-shaped reversal structure.
If this level is broken, the next reasonable target will be the historical high of $4800 set in 2021, representing a 92% increase from the current price.
Several analysts also believe that ETH is likely to rise to $5000 this year. Their reasoning includes Ethereum network upgrades, the Power of 3 price pattern prediction, and the continuous increase of institutional inflows from Ethereum treasury companies.
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Original article: “Four Signals of Ethereum (ETH) Price Returning to $5000 Uptrend”
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