Macro investor Arthur Hayes, co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Bitmex who now leads investment fund Maelstrom, stated on July 2 that bitcoin’s short-term outlook could be shaped by the U.S. Treasury’s plan to refill its checking account, the Treasury General Account (TGA), which may temporarily drain liquidity from the financial system. To restore the TGA balance to target levels after a debt ceiling increase, the Treasury will need to issue new bonds—an action that pulls cash out of the market and can weigh on asset prices in the short run. Hayes explained how this dynamic could impact bitcoin prices:

If the TGA refill proves to be dollar liquidity negative, then the downside is $90,000 to $95,000. If the refill proves to be a nothingburger, bitcoin will chop in the $100,000s without a decisive break above the $112,000 all-time-high.

He emphasized this is not a call for a full retracement, but a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting in August, which he sees as a potential inflection point.

Despite that caution, Hayes warned against standing idle. In his view, the broader macro setup favors a substantial upside for bitcoin in the years ahead. He predicted a long-term surge in digital assets driven by U.S. fiscal operations that quietly reflate markets without formal monetary easing.

To those waiting for a clearer policy signal from the Fed before taking risk, Hayes issued a warning:

You will miss out on bitcoin pumping 10x to $1 million or the Nasdaq 100 spiking 5x to 100,000 by 2028.

Investors waiting for the Fed to formally pivot may miss the rally altogether, Hayes argued, suggesting instead that bitcoin will front-run liquidity expansion driven by fiscal operations rather than monetary signals.

Stablecoins, in his view, are central to this liquidity wave. “$10.1 trillion can flood into the T-bill market over time due to the BBC’s policies,” Hayes stated, referencing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s strategy. By enabling too-big-to-fail banks to issue stablecoins and potentially ending interest on reserves, Hayes believes the U.S. government is quietly laying the groundwork for a major influx of capital into Treasuries—one that will ultimately act as fuel for risk assets like bitcoin.

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