Michaël van de Poppe bases this bullish outlook on bitcoin’s current consolidation near $100,000, which he sees mirroring extended pauses before previous massive bull runs, and a strong correlation with expanding global money supply.

In his recent Youtube video, Van de Poppe highlights the significant correlation between bitcoin’s price and the M2 money supply, a measure including cash, demand deposits, savings, and certain money market funds. He notes that M2 contracted significantly between 2021 and 2023 but has recently begun climbing again, particularly with potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts anticipated.

“When more money floods the system, much of it flows into assets that act as a hedge against inflation,” the analysis states, positioning bitcoin as a beneficiary.

Key differences from the 2021 peak, according to him, include the current restart of money printing after a period of tightening, elevated interest rates (though potentially falling), a declining U.S. dollar, and the major new influence of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He argues that exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows alone have propelled bitcoin to its current valuation, suggesting even greater upside potential exists.

“If that capital alone brought us here, we may be underestimating how far this bull run can go,” van de Poppe observes.

The trader references historical cycles and a “banana zone” chart overlaying bitcoin with business cycle data, indicating explosive upward phases often begin after prolonged consolidation near key psychological levels – similar to bitcoin hovering near $10,000 before the 2020 surge. With bitcoin consolidating near $100,000 for roughly eight months, similar to the pre-2020 breakout period, he believes the market is at equilibrium and primed for significant gains.

“It suggests we’re at an equilibrium and ready to move higher,” the transcript details.

Based on the M2 trajectory and historical seasonal strength in crypto markets, van de Poppe sees a path for Bitcoin to reach $160,000-$180,000 within three months. Looking further ahead, he projects the potential for much higher levels by year-end 2025. “If Q4 continues the trend, bitcoin reaching $250,000—or more—is absolutely possible,” van de Poppe states directly.

He declared:

Bitcoin is on its way to $250,000 in 2025.

While bullish, the trader acknowledges potential for a longer, more drawn-out market cycle peaking in 2027 or 2028, and notes current underperformance in altcoins, creating a pricing disconnect he views as a major opportunity.

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