Key Points:
Ethereum has failed to return to $2600, with futures and options data indicating a lack of confidence among traders.
The growth of the Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem has not driven an increase in ETH demand, primarily limited by the low transaction fees of Rollups.
The launch of the Solana ETF has weakened ETH's dominance among altcoins and reduced the probability of it breaking through $3200.
Ethereum (ETH) rose 9% from Tuesday to Thursday this week but still did not break the $2600 mark. As prices rebounded, traders noted a bullish technical pattern known as the "golden cross," which they believe could push ETH up to $3200, a level last seen in January. However, derivatives data shows that bullish sentiment among ETH traders is not evident.
X platform user MerlijnTrader pointed out that the golden cross pattern that appeared on Wednesday is typically a starting point for bull markets and indicated that technical analysis shows short-term momentum is strengthening, more pronounced than long-term moving averages. For MerlijnTrader, ETH is "sending a clear signal," suggesting that a new bull market may be approaching.
Despite ETH briefly rising to $2600 on Thursday, the demand for leveraged long positions did not significantly increase. In a neutral market environment, monthly contracts typically trade at an annualized premium of 5% to 10% over spot prices to reflect longer settlement periods.
Currently, even with the recent price increase, the Ethereum futures premium remains below the 5% neutral threshold. The last time this indicator released a bullish signal was on January 26, when ETH was trading close to $3300. Notably, this day coincided with the launch of the official Trump (TRUMP) meme coin on Solana, which boosted trading volume and revenue on that blockchain.
X platform user cryptunez noted that decentralized applications (DApps) on Solana generated $1.3 billion more in revenue than Ethereum.
However, this narrow analysis overlooks Ethereum's strategic shift towards Layer 2 scaling. Currently, a significant amount of DApp revenue in the ecosystem has flowed to Layer 2 solutions such as Base, Arbitrum, Polygon, Optimism, and Unichain. Additionally, Solana has faced criticism for MEV-related operations, which allow validators to reorder transactions for profit.
X platform user R89Capital accurately summarized investor sentiment, pointing out that Ethereum supporters are "correct in their judgment of building a Layer 2 ecosystem," but "believing this is beneficial for ETH itself is mistaken." Essentially, the extremely low data processing fees of Rollups promote adoption but do not significantly increase demand for ETH itself.
Viktor Bunin, a protocol expert at Coinbase, noted that interoperability within the Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem remains a major obstacle. The lack of incentives for "big player collaboration" has led each team to pursue isolated solutions. Bunin believes that meaningful progress requires more direct involvement from the Ethereum Foundation.
To assess whether professional traders have lost confidence in ETH's price recovery, checking the delta skew of ETH options is useful. In bearish conditions, selling (put) options often trade at a higher premium than buying (call) options, causing the indicator to exceed the 6% neutral threshold.
Currently, the ETH options skew is at 1%, indicating that traders believe the likelihood of price movement in either direction is equal, a reading that is the same as the previous week.
The lack of confidence in Ethereum derivatives further confirms traders' doubts about ETH's ability to return to the $3200 level. This caution may partly stem from the launch of the first U.S. spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Wednesday.
The Solana ETF not only weakened ETH's leadership among altcoins but also raised the bar through embedded staking. Unless Ethereum can provide direct tokenization and institutional adoption benefits for ETH holders, sustained recovery in the short term seems unlikely.
Related: Ethereum Community Foundation Established, Aiming to Drive ETH Price to $10,000
Original: “Ethereum (ETH) Traders Target $3200, But Derivatives Data Shows Divergence After Golden Cross”
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