On the daily chart, bitcoin displayed a bullish structure characterized by higher lows and a significant bullish engulfing pattern formed after a drop in late June. A sharp uptick in volume reinforced this reversal, positioning the price just under a key resistance level near $110,587. Support levels are holding around the $102,000 to $103,000 range, providing a floor should bearish pressure reemerge. The breakout above the mid-June descending trendline around $105,000 offered a compelling long entry, with partial profit-taking advised near $110,500 to $111,000. The medium-term outlook remains positive, contingent on the price maintaining momentum above $105,000.
BTC/USD 1-day chart via Bitstamp on July 3, 2025.
The 4-hour BTC/USD chart reinforces the bullish trajectory with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows starting from $105,130. Rising volume during the ascent validates the strength of the move, although recent candlesticks with diminishing body size suggest waning bullish momentum. No definitive divergence is visible yet, but overextension is a risk. An ideal entry occurred near $106,500 during a consolidation breakout, while traders are now advised to protect gains with stop-losses beneath $108,500. A close below $109,000 on this timeframe could signal a short-term correction.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart via Bitstamp on July 3, 2025.
On the 1-hour chart, bitcoin surged rapidly from $105,130, but upward momentum is visibly stalling as the price hovers near $110,000 to $110,300. Early signs of exhaustion appear through declining volume and candle structures with smaller bodies and upper wicks, signaling possible bearish divergence. Scalpers entering above $109,000 are encouraged to adopt tight stop-losses. Should BTC fail to surpass $110,300 convincingly, a retreat toward near-term support is plausible. Momentum on this shorter timeframe now favors caution.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart via Bitstamp on July 3, 2025.
Oscillator readings suggest mixed sentiment. The relative strength index (RSI), Stochastic, commodity channel index (CCI), average directional index (ADX), and awesome oscillator all signal neutral, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Momentum is the only bearish signal, suggesting a potential short-term dip. Meanwhile, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is bullish, reinforcing the prevailing upward bias. These indicators collectively support a cautiously optimistic view, with select signs of short-term fatigue.
Moving averages (MAs) broadly support bullish sentiment. Both short-term and long-term averages, including the 10-period exponential moving average (EMA) and 200-period simple moving average (SMA), are aligned in a buy signal. The 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200-period EMA and SMA values all sit below the current market price, confirming a healthy uptrend. However, proximity to resistance demands vigilance. Should bitcoin clear $111,000 with volume confirmation, it may herald a new leg upward. A failure here, however, risks a return to the $106,000 to $107,000 region.
Bull Verdict:
If bitcoin maintains its position above $109,000 and breaks convincingly through the $110,500–$111,000 resistance zone with sustained volume, the bullish structure remains intact. A continued rally toward new highs appears likely, especially with widespread support from moving averages and a favorable daily chart setup.
Bear Verdict:
Failure to hold above the $109,000 threshold or a strong rejection at $110,500–$111,000 could trigger a correction. Weakening momentum and signs of exhaustion on lower timeframes suggest a possible retracement toward $106,000, with a breach of $105,000 invalidating the bullish thesis entirely.
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