Written by: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise
Translated by: AIMan@Golden Finance
In December 2024, the Bitwise research team looked ahead and made 10 bold predictions for 2025. These include: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will reach all-time highs, the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 will exceed that of 2024, and Coinbase and Strategy will enter the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.
Making predictions is relatively easy; the hard part is determining whether they are correct. Even more challenging is examining our own predictive errors.
Therefore, as we approach the halfway mark of 2025, we review our previous predictions to see which ones were accurate, which were incorrect, and which are still too early to call. So far, we have correctly predicted two, one wrong, and the remaining seven are still pending.
The second half of the year should be exciting.
Prediction 1: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will reach all-time highs, with Bitcoin trading above $200,000.
Update: It is still too early to draw conclusions
This year, the prices of crypto assets have fluctuated. Thanks to strong ETF liquidity, growing demand for Bitcoin from vault companies, and the establishment of U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserves, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $112,000 in May. However, both Ethereum and Solana have seen declines so far this year, with macro risks hindering the acceleration of the bull market.
Nevertheless, we are optimistic that the market will see strong growth in the second half of the year. Progress in cryptocurrency legislation in Washington, D.C., increasing demand from institutional investors for crypto investments, and extreme bullish sentiment towards stablecoins all contribute to a strong profit environment.
Key point: We maintain our prediction of Bitcoin at $200,000, as the demand from institutional investors for Bitcoin is too significant to sustain long-term price stability. Our confidence in Ethereum and Solana is slightly lower, but we hope that as interest in stablecoins rises, ETF approvals occur, and the emergence of ETH and SOL fund management companies takes place, prices will significantly increase.
Prediction 2: The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 will be greater than in 2024.
Update: It is still too early to draw conclusions
In 2024, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $35 billion in inflows, breaking all records for new asset classes. So far in 2025, they have attracted about $13 billion. At this rate, we may not achieve our goal—but we expect inflows to accelerate significantly in the second half of the year. What is the biggest factor? Major brokerages and wealth management platforms have recently approved access to Bitcoin ETFs, opening the door to trillions of dollars in wealth for the BTC ETF market for the first time.
Key point: It feels like this is about to happen. We are very optimistic about ETF liquidity in the second half of the year.
Prediction 3: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab to become the world's most valuable brokerage, with its stock price exceeding $700 per share.
Update: This seems unlikely
Coinbase has had a stellar performance this year. In May 2025, it became the first cryptocurrency company to be included in the S&P 500 index. Revenue grew by 24% year-over-year, and trading volume surged. Coinbase's stock price has also performed well, with a market return rate twice that of Charles Schwab (44%, compared to Schwab's 22%).
Despite Coinbase's strong business momentum, Wall Street still overlooks the quantity, quality, and potential growth of its business. Moreover, to be honest, Charles Schwab's stock performance has been somewhat better than we expected. Therefore, the gap between Coinbase's market capitalization ($90 billion) and Charles Schwab's market capitalization ($164 billion) may be difficult to close by the end of the year.
Key point: We still believe this will happen. It may just take a bit longer than we previously thought.
Prediction 4: 2025 will be the "Year of Cryptocurrency IPOs," with at least 5 cryptocurrency unicorns going public in the U.S.
Update: Almost guaranteed
We have already seen three cryptocurrency unicorns go public in the first half of 2025: Webull (valued at $5 billion), eToro ($5.5 billion), and Circle ($41 billion). This feast seems to be just beginning: partly due to Circle's sensational IPO, more companies are announcing plans to follow suit into the public market, including Gemini, Kraken, BitGo, Tron, Consensys, and American Bitcoin.
Key point: It feels like this is a sure thing. In fact, five IPOs may be too conservative.
Prediction 5: Tokens launched by AI agents will lead to a larger memecoin craze than in 2024.
Update: Extremely unlikely
Memecoins crashed in the first quarter of 2025, led by the plummeting of TrumpCoin and MelaniaCoin, as well as the scandalous collapse of the LIBRA coin held by Argentine President Milei. Although AI agents remain an intriguing and evolving field, they have taken a backseat in 2025.
Key point: We were wrong. You can't be right about everything.
Prediction 6: The number of countries holding Bitcoin will double from 9 to 18.
Update: This seems unlikely
As of the end of 2024, there were 9 countries holding Bitcoin. By the end of the first half of the year, we saw significant steps towards the goal of 18 countries: the United Arab Emirates disclosed its $400 million Bitcoin reserves in February, and Pakistan announced the establishment of Bitcoin reserves in May. Notably, the U.S. has launched cryptocurrency reserves—this move has undoubtedly caught the attention of finance ministries in other countries around the world.
However, we increasingly feel that many countries are exploring or accumulating Bitcoin out of the public eye for strategic reasons. We speculate that more countries will reveal their holdings by the end of the year.
Key point: We are not sure if we will reach 18 this year, but we may be very close.
Prediction 7: Coinbase will enter the S&P 500 index, and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq 100 index, adding cryptocurrency risk exposure to (almost) every U.S. investor's portfolio.
Update: We succeeded
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) entered the Nasdaq 100 index at the end of 2024 (shortly after we made our predictions), and Coinbase entered the S&P 500 index in May. These moves will almost certainly stimulate demand for these companies' stocks from both active and passive index funds—we estimate that the inclusion of COIN will bring at least $15 billion in buying volume. But perhaps more importantly, they symbolize a deeper entrenchment of cryptocurrency in the mainstream market. As Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said, "Cryptocurrency is here to stay."
Key point: We got this prediction right.
Prediction 8: The U.S. Department of Labor will relax its guidance on cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans, leading to billions of dollars flowing into crypto assets.
Update: We succeeded
In May of this year, the U.S. Department of Labor rescinded its 2022 guidance that required 401(k) plan fiduciaries to exercise "extra caution" before including cryptocurrency investments in retirement plans. Labor Secretary Julie Su stated that the agency is "retracting this overreach and making it clear that investment decisions should be made by fiduciaries, not bureaucrats in Washington, D.C." In other words, the pie has gotten bigger.
Key point: We got this prediction right.
Prediction 9: As the U.S. passes long-awaited stablecoin legislation, stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion.
Update: It is still too early to draw conclusions
The current asset management scale of stablecoins is $260 billion, having grown by over 30% since the beginning of the year. However, there is still a long way to go to break through $400 billion. Factors contributing to this process include the "GENIUS Act" (a comprehensive stablecoin bill), which passed the Senate in June with a vote of 68 in favor and 30 against. Another significant driver comes from traditional players like Mastercard—accepted by 150 million merchants globally—who are recently integrating stablecoins into their business models; additionally, major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America are also planning to launch their own stablecoins.
Key point: This will be very close. We are not sure if the asset scale will reach $400 billion by the end of the year, but it will grow significantly.
Prediction 10: As Wall Street's acceptance of cryptocurrency deepens, the value of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) will exceed $50 billion.
Update: This looks promising
This year, news about tokenization has been everywhere. In May of this year, New Jersey announced plans to tokenize nearly 400,000 property deeds worth $240 billion on the Avalanche platform. Dubai launched the first tokenized real estate platform on XRP. Kraken is launching a platform that allows non-U.S. investors to trade "tokenized stocks" of popular companies like Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, and many others.
At the beginning of 2025, the market size of tokenized risk assets (RWA) was $13 billion. Today, that market size is about $25 billion. We believe that applications in this field will accelerate in the second half of the year, ultimately breaking through the $50 billion mark.
Key point: We believe this will happen.
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