The global trade situation experienced a dramatic reversal over the weekend. U.S. President Trump suddenly announced the termination of all trade negotiations with Canada, with the trigger pointing directly at Canada's impending digital services tax (DST). However, just 48 hours later, the Canadian government announced the cancellation of the tax, bringing a close to this brief trade conflict. This event not only highlighted the Trump administration's tough stance in trade negotiations but also renewed global market interest in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Against a backdrop of complex macroeconomic data and fluctuating expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the intensification and alleviation of geopolitical tensions and trade frictions are becoming significant variables affecting Bitcoin's price movements.
On June 28, U.S. President Trump announced on Truth Social the immediate suspension of all trade negotiations with Canada. He bluntly pointed out that Canada's 400% tariffs on U.S. dairy products and plans to impose a digital services tax (DST) on U.S. tech companies were key reasons for the breakdown in negotiations. Previously, during the G7 summit the week before, Trump had requested Canadian Prime Minister Carney to delay the implementation of the DST by 30 days, but this was rejected.
What is the digital services tax (DST)? The DST is a tax levied on the revenue generated by multinational digital companies providing digital services in specific countries/regions. Since traditional tax systems primarily target "physical presence," they struggle to effectively cover digital tech giants like Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon. Therefore, many governments have established the DST to ensure that these companies "pay taxes where they earn money." The Canadian government had originally planned to officially implement the DST starting July 1, requiring tech companies to pay a 3% tax on digital revenues exceeding 20 million Canadian dollars (approximately 14.6 million USD) in Canada. This move sparked dissatisfaction among tech giants like Uber and Amazon, who viewed it as a "discriminatory" tax system, ultimately passing the costs onto consumers.
Trump's tough stance quickly triggered a chain reaction. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated in an interview that the U.S. was prepared to initiate a Section 301 investigation and impose a new round of import tariffs on Canada. This news caused the Canadian dollar to briefly drop against the U.S. dollar, and the Toronto S&P/TSX Composite Index also experienced volatility.
However, just 48 hours later, the situation reversed. The New York Times reported that the Canadian government announced on Sunday evening (June 30) that it would cancel the tax targeting U.S. tech companies that led President Trump to suspend trade negotiations between the two countries. Prime Minister Mark Carney's office stated that Carney had discussed the decision to cancel the Canadian digital services tax with Trump on Sunday, and revealed that Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne also spoke with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, indicating that trade negotiations were being restarted.
The tax, originally set to take effect on Monday, was suspended under Trump's strong pressure. From a technical standpoint, canceling the tax requires legislative approval, but the government has paused its collection. Politically, this is undoubtedly a significant victory for the Trump administration in trade negotiations and has avoided a potential new round of tariff wars between the U.S. and Canada. Previously, due to the retroactive nature of the tax, U.S. trade organizations estimated that American companies were prepared to pay about 2.7 billion USD to the Canadian government. Officials from both U.S. political parties have long expressed dissatisfaction with similar taxes imposed by Canada, claiming these taxes unfairly target services provided by American companies like Google, Apple, and Amazon.
Although the U.S.-Canada trade conflict has temporarily eased, concerns remain about the prospects for negotiations with other U.S. trade partners. On June 30, Trump stated that he believed there was no need to extend the July 9 trade deadline, and countries must reach an agreement with the U.S. before this deadline to avoid higher tariffs. Although he added, "it can also be extended, it's no big deal," this erratic statement has heightened uncertainty in global trade policy.
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had previously expressed optimism that if agreements could be reached with 10 to 12 of the 18 key trade partners, all trade negotiations could be completed before Labor Day on September 1. The quick resolution of U.S.-Canada negotiations may provide a template for other negotiations, but the potential risks of global trade frictions still exist, which could lead to supply chain disruptions, economic growth slowdowns, and subsequently affect the stability of global financial markets.
In this macro context, Bitcoin, as a non-sovereign, decentralized asset, is once again drawing attention for its safe-haven properties and potential to hedge against traditional financial risks.
Technical indicators are bullish: According to analyst @ali_charts, a golden cross may occur between Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) and its 30-day SMA (Simple Moving Average), which is typically seen as a signal for the next round of BTC price increases. Positive technical signals, combined with macro-level uncertainties, may attract more capital into Bitcoin.
Economic data and interest rate cut expectations: On the economic front, consumer confidence has surged to a four-month high, and inflation expectations have significantly improved. Although the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose slightly above expectations, its increase aligns with limited price pressures, providing room for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts later this year. However, economic data released on Friday showed inflation stronger than expected, hindering the rise of U.S. Treasury bonds. The money market continues to predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least twice before the end of this year, and if the employment report released on Thursday is weak, bets on a third rate cut by the Federal Reserve may strengthen.
The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, especially the pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts, will directly impact global liquidity and the performance of risk assets. In a context where trade frictions may ease and the global economy faces downward pressure, if the Federal Reserve shifts to a more accommodative monetary policy, it could further drive up the prices of risk assets like Bitcoin.
The rapid resolution of the U.S.-Canada trade conflict indicates that some countries may choose to compromise when faced with significant economic pressure. This has temporarily alleviated market tensions but also highlights the potential impacts of trade protectionism. As a "digital gold," Bitcoin's censorship-resistant and decentralized characteristics make it a choice for some investors seeking safe havens. When trade relations between countries become tense, potentially escalating into tariff wars, investors may withdraw funds from affected traditional assets and turn to Bitcoin and other assets viewed as "safe havens."
Additionally, the digital services tax (DST) itself reflects the competition among governments for tax sovereignty over the digital economy. This regulatory and tax competition over the digital economy may prompt more businesses and individuals to seek digital assets that offer greater privacy and censorship resistance, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin.
After Trump terminated the U.S.-Canada negotiations, Canada quickly canceled the DST, bringing a swift end to this trade conflict. This is not only a victory for the Trump administration but also temporarily alleviates market concerns about an escalation of trade wars. In this context, Bitcoin's market performance will continue to be influenced by macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and geopolitical events. Analysts' bullish technical signals, combined with the potential safe-haven demand arising from global trade frictions, may provide momentum for the next round of Bitcoin price increases. As global economic and political situations evolve, Bitcoin, as a unique digital asset, will continue to attract attention regarding its position and role in the global financial system.
Related: U.S. President Trump: Bitcoin (BTC) alleviates pressure on the dollar
Original article: “After Trump Terminates U.S.-Canada Negotiations, the Situation Takes a Turn: DST Canceled, Bitcoin (BTC) Focuses on New Global Trade Changes”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
