Key Summary:
Ethereum has experienced its first two-week death cross since 2022, with historical data showing that this is typically associated with a price drop of about 40%.
ETH continues to face downside risks while trading below two key trend lines.
Strong network usage and trading volume indicate potential bullish momentum.
Ethereum's native token, Ether, has displayed its first "death cross" pattern on its two-week chart since the bear market of 2022.
Analysts point out that this bearish cross occurred when ETH's 20-period exponential moving average (20-2W EMA; red dashed line) fell below its 50-period EMA (blue dashed line). A similar cross pattern in mid-2022 preceded a 40% drop in Ether's price.
The price action leading up to this death cross is highly similar to the pattern in 2022: first, a strong local top formed, followed by several months of consolidation, and then a slow breakdown characterized by a series of lower highs.
Additionally, in both past and present technical patterns, Ethereum first closed below its 20-period EMA, then slipped below the 50 EMA, forming a local bottom. It then made multiple attempts to test these levels as resistance before finally reclaiming these key levels.
Technical analysis shows that as of June 2025, despite multiple attempts by Ethereum to break through the 20 and 50-period EMAs, it has not succeeded.
With these moving averages continuing to act as resistance, the downside risk has significantly increased, with the market focusing on a potential drop to $1,835—Fibonacci retracement level from the 2021-2022 cycle—as the next important price support area.
Market experts believe that if ETH can decisively turn the 20-period and 50-period EMAs into support levels, it could significantly increase the likelihood of a rebound to the $3,500-$4,000 price range, which aligns with Fibonacci target levels.
Supporting this optimistic outlook is the fact that since May, ETH's price has risen alongside the strongest trading volume performance since July-August 2022 (the last bear market recovery phase).
Moreover, data shows that Ether funds have recorded the strongest inflows since 2021 in recent weeks, with a net inflow of $2.43 billion so far in 2025, bringing total assets under management to $14.29 billion.
The significant rebound in trading activity indicates that both retail and institutional participants have rekindled their interest. Analysts note that this momentum seems to have surpassed mere speculative behavior.
According to the latest statistics from data analysis platform Nansen, on June 24, the Ethereum network processed 1.45 million successful transactions, setting a new daily trading volume record since January 2024.
The current surge in trading volume reflects a significant increase in practical demand from DApps, DeFi protocols, layer two network interactions, and staking participation, all of which collectively strengthen Ethereum's network value.
Industry experts believe that if this trend can be sustained, it could lay a solid foundation for the continued recovery of the Ethereum market and align well with fractal and volume-based technical signals.
Related: Japan Proposes Reclassifying Cryptocurrencies to Pave the Way for ETFs and Lower Taxes
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Ethereum Flashes Death Cross for the First Time Since 2022 Selloff”
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