According to Polymarket data, the odds of Iran following through on its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz before July nosedived from 52% to 11% after it elected to target U.S. bases in Qatar instead. Before June 23, the odds of Iran following this threat had been steadily rising as its war with Israel escalated. However, the United States’ decision to strike one of Iran’s nuclear sites with 13,000-kilogram bunker-buster bombs saw the odds spike to 52%.

Moments after the United States joined Israel in a coordinated assault on Iran’s sensitive nuclear sites in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz, the Iranian legislature swiftly approved a retaliatory measure to blockade the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. The move instantly sparked widespread fears that Tehran, with its nuclear capabilities already severely weakened by relentless Israeli airstrikes, might finally carry out its long-standing threat to disrupt the critical waterway.

Such an action, many observers warn, would have profound and immediate repercussions for global commerce. The threat prompted U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to implore Chinese authorities to rein in the Iranians. U.S. President Donald Trump, for his part, threatened to hit Iran harder if it targeted U.S. assets in the Middle East.

However, some 24 hours after issuing several threats, Iranian leaders eventually settled on targeting U.S. bases in Qatar instead. Yet before targeting U.S. bases, Iranian authorities reportedly warned Qatari officials, prompting the latter to take steps including closing its airspace.

Following the strikes, several media reports suggested that Iran had signaled it wants to de-escalate, hence the steep decline in the Polymarkets odds of it actually blocking the shipping channel.

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