🔥Event Review

Recently, the ETH market has shown exceptionally volatile performance. At the beginning of the market opening, a large number of leveraged short positions in the ETH and Bitcoin derivatives market were forced to close, creating a significant short squeeze effect. Funds quickly replenished in an instant, pushing ETH from around $2340 to over $2400, and it surged to around $2440. Subsequently, some profit-taking caused the price to briefly retreat to around $2397. This process seemed like an intense game, with the market constantly tugging between leveraged liquidations and fund replenishments, showing significant emotional fluctuations.

⏳Timeline

• 06:01: The market opened, multiple leveraged short positions were triggered for liquidation, and funds surged in; ETH price began a rapid rebound from $2340.
• 06:01–06:12: In just 11 minutes, ETH quickly rose from about $2340 to $2410, an increase of 2.99%, indicating that buying pressure quickly gained the upper hand.
• 06:11: ETH broke through the key resistance level of $2400, further boosting market confidence.
• 06:01–06:24: Driven by continuous buying, ETH price rose from $2402 to $2440, an increase of about 1.60%.
• 06:41: After a rapid rise, some technical profit-taking led to a brief price retreat to $2397.37, indicating that the market is in a short-term adjustment phase.

🔍Reason Analysis

1. Leveraged Liquidation Triggering Short Squeeze
   A large number of leveraged short positions in the market faced liquidation triggers, leading to a chain reaction of stop-loss orders that quickly cleared the shorts. In that moment, a significant influx of funds into buying pushed ETH's price to rebound sharply.

2. Support from Macroeconomic Policies and Liquidity Environment
   The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, and stable employment data reduced policy uncertainty. At the same time, the issuance of stablecoins across multiple chains and large inflows of USDT into exchanges created a loose financing environment, providing ample liquidity to the market and further driving up mainstream asset prices.

📊Technical Analysis

This analysis is based on the [ETH/USDT Binance USDT perpetual 45-minute] candlestick data, leading to the following observations:

• Price Trend and Bollinger Bands: The current price is running along the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong upward momentum, but nearing the upper band suggests that overbought risks are gradually accumulating.
• KDJ Indicator Status: The KDJ indicator has entered the overbought zone, and the indicators are converging, signaling a potential pullback in the short term.
• Surge in Trading Volume: Trading volume has increased by 60.01% compared to before, significantly enhancing market activity, but the divergence between trading volume and price trends should also be monitored.
• Bullish Moving Average Arrangement: The price is currently above the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA short, medium, and long-term moving averages, showing a clear bullish trend, with the EMA20 slope reaching 1.66%. The MACD histogram has reached new highs, indicating strong upward momentum.
• Short-term Pullback Risk: Although the overall technical outlook is bullish, some indicators (such as TD price reversal patterns) suggest that there may be profit-taking risks in the short term. Investors should closely monitor changes in support levels and manage their positions accordingly.

🚀Market Outlook

In the face of volatile market conditions, ETH may oscillate in a high range in the short term. If subsequent buying continues to support the price, breaking through the upper resistance and firmly standing above the main moving averages, it may open the door for further upward movement; conversely, facing overbought risks and some technical bearish signals, the market may also experience a phase of adjustment.
In the medium to long term, supported by favorable macro policies and ample liquidity, mainstream assets are still expected to continue their upward trend. However, in the current phase of high volatility, it is advisable for investors to remain cautious, rationally allocate their positions, closely monitor key technical indicators and changes in market sentiment, and adjust their positions in a timely manner to avoid risks.

In summary, the recent sharp fluctuations in ETH reflect both the intense collision of market sentiment and the interplay of multiple forces from technical and fundamental perspectives. How the future trend will unfold requires market participants to continuously observe changes in trading volume, dynamics of leveraged positions, and new developments in macro policies.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。