Original source: Master Brother from Australia
Today, the news about OKX planning to go public in the United States is widely circulated, and even OKB surged by up to 10 points at its peak. I looked around at everyone's opinions, including:
1. Positive for OKX to expand market share
2. Positive for OKB to rise
3. Positive for @star_okx's wealth to further gain freedom
4. Paving a new path for other CEX and projects that have not been regulated
5. Signal that the bull market is at its peak
Hmmm, I don't agree with some of these opinions, while some are interesting. I originally wanted to see @Yueqi_Yang's opinions from the main text of her story, but unfortunately, it costs several hundred dollars to subscribe, so I’ll pass. If OKX really goes public in the US, it is indeed a significant event for the industry, so I’ll do some research and write freely.
First, congratulations to @star_okx (Note: Founder of OKX) for finally reaching the moment of realization after years of planning. From buying a shell company in Hong Kong years ago to later choosing to abandon a large number of C-end users for compliance, reducing the empowerment of OKB, and even agreeing to comply during the critical wallet war, his determination is evident. Many things are hard to understand in the short term, such as how OKX was once very aggressive in listing coins and new projects but suddenly became extremely conservative. Isn't this driving away their own C-end users? (Today, there are still people mocking that OKX is no longer among the top three CEX). But now, if you connect the dots with the US stock listing, you can understand many of their past decisions. Transitioning from wild growth to mainstream finance often requires drastic measures.
In short: Star has put in a lot of effort to gain compliance, and the mysteries behind many previous puzzling operations are starting to be revealed.
If it goes public, what are the highlights?
1. The future of OKB
Taking OKB as an example, if OKX wants to go public in the US, OKB is likely to become a burden, or even must be marginalized (so why did it rise today? Perhaps because this positive news has no other more relevant targets). The reason OKB has rarely empowered new projects like BNB in the past two years is largely because it would enhance its securities attributes, making it easy to fall into the Howey Test (the standard for determining securities).
Regulatory perspective: The SEC is extremely sensitive to platform tokens.
In the eyes of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the vast majority of platform tokens could be deemed "unregistered securities," and OKB is no exception.
For example:
• BNB: In the lawsuit filed by the SEC against Binance, it was explicitly stated that BNB is a security.
• FTT: After the collapse of FTX, FTT was also identified by the SEC as an illegal security.
• COINBASE proactively gave up issuing platform tokens before going public to avoid potential legal obstacles.
Therefore: If OKX wants to go public smoothly in the US, the "securities risk" of OKB is a huge obstacle. I currently feel like we are in a "burden" state where we can't push forward but also can't cut it off. I personally speculate that OKX's strategy regarding OKB is likely to split the business structure and give the operational rights of OKB to a non-US entity, serving as an equity token for the international market/decentralized public chain GAS. I asked a few friends, and some believe that OKB may be sidelined, becoming a "discarded legacy," and even after OKX successfully goes public, its existence will be deliberately downplayed.
I agree with another viewpoint: $OKB may be retained, but efforts will be made to remove the strong binding relationship with CEX to meet decentralized needs, such as OKX's public chain.
Final conclusion: At this stage, I am not inclined to invest in $OKB, and shorting it also requires caution because this token is too centralized. Unless the market misunderstands the logical relationship and equates OKX's listing with a positive for OKB, creating FOMO, I wouldn't dare to invest.
2. How is the fundamental outlook for OKX's listing?
I checked an article by @Roshan_OKX, the head of OKX's US operations, from April this year. They have officially opened registration for US users and will promote it across the US later this year.
The main concept is "cryptocurrency super application," providing deeper liquidity, lower trading fees, and more advanced trading tools. It is worth mentioning that OKX's wallet will also be opened simultaneously, and compared to CEX and current mainstream CEX in the US, the wallet is indeed superior. The link is here:
If they successfully go public in the future, the fundamental outlook for the stock essentially comes down to the company's core profitability.
I looked into Coinbase's revenue, which mainly comes from the following areas (based on their recent financial reports):
Transaction Revenue — the largest share, accounting for about 70% of Coinbase's total revenue (even higher during bull markets)
Subscription and Service Revenue (Staking, Custody, Earn, USDC interest, etc.) ~20-35% (increasing year by year)
OKX's revenue is mainly distributed across the following core modules:
Trading fees (covering spot, leverage, derivatives) — the primary source of income;
Deposit and withdrawal fees (supporting multiple fiat currencies) — stable fiat channel income;
Staking/DeFi commissions (Web3 services) — promising for the future;
However, OKX's major weapon—the wallet—has not yet activated swap fees. If they manage to cater to the tastes of US market participants and then implement a fee model for each swap (currently, Rabby wallet charges a 0.25% fee per swap), that would be a very substantial and stable income. Additionally, with the compliance licenses OKX has obtained globally, going public in the US could positively enhance its fundamentals, significantly increasing the capitalized value and market trust of OKX in other regions where it has obtained licenses (amplifier effect).
Now, it can be seen that @star_okx's strategic layout is indeed well thought out. If the stock goes public and the valuation is not too exaggerated, I am considering buying in.
3. Can OKX's successful listing break the ice for other CEX?
I think the answer is: very likely! It can almost be certain that it will play a "breaking the ice" and "opening the floodgates" role.
OKX's successful listing will be the first substantial recognition of the legitimate business model and risk control capabilities of large CEX by the traditional financial regulatory system. This sends a strong signal to the entire industry: "CeFi is not original sin; compliance can lead to public listing." Compared to Coinbase, which is inherently expensive as a US-based CEX, OKX represents a grassroots CEX that has grown wildly in the crypto space, a CEX led by Chinese people, and a more original generation of the crypto world.
Regulatory bodies such as the US SEC, CFTC, HK SFC, and Singapore MAS will closely monitor the structure, risk control framework, and information disclosure methods of OKX's listing. If OKX can succeed, especially for exchanges like Binance and Bybit, which have a huge global presence but have not yet achieved public capitalization, it will serve as a validation of the path. If OKX performs well after going public (for example, high market capitalization, good liquidity, stable financial data), the secondary market will re-evaluate the CEX sector. At that time, investment banks will actively seek to arrange listing paths for Binance, Bybit, and even Bitget. (Of course, compliance costs will be very high, and I don't think many CEXs are willing to accept this price.) Some hedge funds and pension funds will also start to invest in CeFi equity, promoting the formation of a closed loop of primary financing - public listing exit - re-funding.
To summarize:
OKB may not benefit from OKX's US listing; investment needs to be cautious.
If OKX successfully goes public, its business fundamentals in the US market are strong, especially in the wallet business. Coupled with its overseas pre-licensing layout, do not underestimate the stock price valuation.
If OKX succeeds, it will become a "breaking the ice event" in the history of CeFi — it won't immediately lead to the listing of Binance or Bybit, but it will open a path for the market and regulatory bodies to take the possibility of "capital marketization of CeFi" seriously for the first time.
The process of formalizing cryptocurrency is accelerating, ushering in a new "great era"!
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